Is the US Military ready for war? The answer is yes and no. It is yes, if we are going to fight a third world force with no depth or robust economic support. Think Iraq, Yugoslavia or Panama.
If you are talking against the Russians or Chinese, the answer is definitely no.
Why? You may ask, how is this possible, when our military strength is so large? It has to do with a lot of factors. Let’s take the easy ones, the obvious ones first.
1. Logistics: Erwin Rommel said that Logisticians determine the battle before it even begins. Three factors are involved here.
a. How much material, arms and weapons you have on hand?
b. How much economic/industrial capacity do you have to replace the weapons and armaments you burn up in a combat zone?
c. Last, but very important, how long are your lines of re-supply.
With the current reports of what we have on hand:
a. We have sufficient weapons and material to take on a small force. But to take on the Chinese or Russians, we would probably run out of needed items in about a week to a month: depending on the specific item.
b. We have the capability to “slowly” replace our military items for a little war. But for a large war, with Russian/Ukrainian war type expenditure rates, we would be sadly deficient.
c. In a small war against a much weaker Nation, long lines of communication and re-supply are not that critical. Why? Because for all intense and purposes, when compared to the Might and Power of the United States of America, you are clubbing baby seals. Simple as that. But when you fight a peer competitor in a High Intensity conflict, resupply times and distances matter.
To fight the Russians in Ukraine or the Chinese in the Pacific area of Taiwan is a recipe for disaster. Especially the Chinese scenario. You are asking for a major defeat. Why? Because that zone of operations has the largest aircraft carrier in the world: Mainland China. The proximity of Mainland China dominates that whole area from the Parcels in the South to the Chunxiao Gas Field in the North.
The Chinese can deploy hundreds of aircraft and thousands of missiles from inland installations. And what are you going to do, bomb mainland China? Put it this way, it would be like the Chinese trying to attack an island off the West Coast of the United States, they wouldn’t stand a chance.
Another factor. In a war with a peer military state, you also have to consider loss rates of capital ships and fleets of aircraft. If loss rates are high ,this begs the question: do you have sufficient ports, skilled labor and parts /material on hand to “quickly” repair ships and aircraft? For aircraft such as the F16, F22 and F35 maybe. The B21 , B2 and B1, not really.
The ability to repair ships? Look at the repair times needed for peace time accidents involving the USS McCain or USS San Francisco. A nice point of reference is :
Repair Time Is the Critical Variable, By Lieutenant Keegan Hoey, U.S. Navy, December 2022, Proceedings.
The subject of “Is the US Military ready for war” is a multifactored subject that you could spend pages on. The words I have written above are just a very short answer which says…..maybe, just maybe….it depends who you fight.
One last thought. Guys like Keene get paid to mold opinion and manufacture a consent narrative. Keene, Petraeus, McCaffery , and Hodges say things that a capable Captain of Infantry, with a modicum knowledge of history, would find ridiculous. But that is what they get paid for.
Lastly, I will say this, because it colors my thought concerning the competency of the US Military’s senior leadership.
Did you ever hear of one, just one, Battalion Commander, Brigade Commander or General Officer who did a tour in Afghanistan say that they failed their mission?
No, at their departure Ceremony, they all achieved their goals and accomplished their missions in a glorious manner. Then how can that be? That in 20 years and hundreds of Units deploying to Afghanistan, if everybody accomplished their mission, How did we lose against a bunch of tribal hill men?
This situation of defeat at the hands of third world army is unfathomable. But what really makes me worry is this. Come to today…….Most, if not all, the Ukrainian Army’s Offensive plans were probably created by the Military Group of the US Embassy in Kiev by a “best and brightest” officer staff. We see how that turned out. It tells me that the Military has learned nothing.
Scrambling seems to fit pretty good. Just now figuring things out is pretty lame. Won't be enough and our military will be at significant risk. US doesn't adapt well on the fly. We consider "air power" supreme and in my opinion will be the most significant contribution if hostilities break out. As others and Davis suggests, very reactive, not a good look. Further, straining the military sets other factions in motion across the globe.
What are the anti Trump forces willing to do to defeat him?
The usual cheating and fortification may not be enough.
Two videos that just changed my world view.
Tom Luongo had an interview 3 weeks ago mentioning $20 oil as the title.
His point was the Blackrock etc. will do anything necessary to get their candidate in power, including losing lots of money for $20 oil. And it’s not their money anyway.
And then he mentioned Lehman brothers was allowed to fail to get Obama into office.
And then I finally started listening to the Alex Jones Tucker interview. He forecast 9-11, based on what Dick Cheneys group said was necessary a terrorist Pearl Harbor, to get a security state.
My first time ever listening to him. I expected a buffoon, but instead he basis his work on analysis. And why was he so absolutely deplatformed? He reminds me of the jihad against Assange.
And what happened in 2020, and the continued jihad against Trump. More evidence of how far the anti Trumpers are willing to go. They are destroying the global trust and respect of the U.S. rule of law and elections to Get Trump.
How do you forecast this level of fanaticism that any means possible is acceptable to achieve their goals.
No, the US is not ready for war with 34 Trillion of debt, no shared cultural values, its attack on liberty and the rule of law, and a feeble senile old grifter in office all highly representative of what the US has become. I hope to God you are wrong about our involvement with Israel in support of a regional war. I mean, its good MIC business, and all, but we all lose in ways not imagined once a regional war erupts into a world war because there is a lot of blowback to be had from the ROW. I wouldn't want my son or daughters to fight for Joe Biden's corrupt administration.
Jim Stone speculated that Israeli covid inoculation numbers were grossly exaggerated on purpose and that little were administrated among the population.
There also seems to be serious disagreement within the DC neocon group between the "We want war at all costs" segment (Nuland, Bolton, Kagan, etc.) and the "We want war too but we also need to win an election" segment (Sullivan, Blinken). The Two Alexes talk about this in detail, siting the withdrawal of the USS Eisenhower as proof that Blinken and Co. are trying to de-escalate. Who knows? As you say, Mark, the Biden Regime is in full scramble mode and is not in control of events.
LJ has an eye opener on Israeli military/political (because it's all connected) preparedness:
ISRAEL’S “UNITY” GOVERNMENT IN CHAOS OVER CALLS TO INVESTIGATE ISRAEL’S FAILURE ON OCTOBER 7
https://sonar21.com/israels-unity-government-in-chaos-over-calls-to-investigate-israels-failure-on-october-7/
Is the US Military ready for war? The answer is yes and no. It is yes, if we are going to fight a third world force with no depth or robust economic support. Think Iraq, Yugoslavia or Panama.
If you are talking against the Russians or Chinese, the answer is definitely no.
Why? You may ask, how is this possible, when our military strength is so large? It has to do with a lot of factors. Let’s take the easy ones, the obvious ones first.
1. Logistics: Erwin Rommel said that Logisticians determine the battle before it even begins. Three factors are involved here.
a. How much material, arms and weapons you have on hand?
b. How much economic/industrial capacity do you have to replace the weapons and armaments you burn up in a combat zone?
c. Last, but very important, how long are your lines of re-supply.
With the current reports of what we have on hand:
a. We have sufficient weapons and material to take on a small force. But to take on the Chinese or Russians, we would probably run out of needed items in about a week to a month: depending on the specific item.
b. We have the capability to “slowly” replace our military items for a little war. But for a large war, with Russian/Ukrainian war type expenditure rates, we would be sadly deficient.
c. In a small war against a much weaker Nation, long lines of communication and re-supply are not that critical. Why? Because for all intense and purposes, when compared to the Might and Power of the United States of America, you are clubbing baby seals. Simple as that. But when you fight a peer competitor in a High Intensity conflict, resupply times and distances matter.
To fight the Russians in Ukraine or the Chinese in the Pacific area of Taiwan is a recipe for disaster. Especially the Chinese scenario. You are asking for a major defeat. Why? Because that zone of operations has the largest aircraft carrier in the world: Mainland China. The proximity of Mainland China dominates that whole area from the Parcels in the South to the Chunxiao Gas Field in the North.
The Chinese can deploy hundreds of aircraft and thousands of missiles from inland installations. And what are you going to do, bomb mainland China? Put it this way, it would be like the Chinese trying to attack an island off the West Coast of the United States, they wouldn’t stand a chance.
Another factor. In a war with a peer military state, you also have to consider loss rates of capital ships and fleets of aircraft. If loss rates are high ,this begs the question: do you have sufficient ports, skilled labor and parts /material on hand to “quickly” repair ships and aircraft? For aircraft such as the F16, F22 and F35 maybe. The B21 , B2 and B1, not really.
The ability to repair ships? Look at the repair times needed for peace time accidents involving the USS McCain or USS San Francisco. A nice point of reference is :
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/december/repair-time-critical-variable
Repair Time Is the Critical Variable, By Lieutenant Keegan Hoey, U.S. Navy, December 2022, Proceedings.
The subject of “Is the US Military ready for war” is a multifactored subject that you could spend pages on. The words I have written above are just a very short answer which says…..maybe, just maybe….it depends who you fight.
One last thought. Guys like Keene get paid to mold opinion and manufacture a consent narrative. Keene, Petraeus, McCaffery , and Hodges say things that a capable Captain of Infantry, with a modicum knowledge of history, would find ridiculous. But that is what they get paid for.
Lastly, I will say this, because it colors my thought concerning the competency of the US Military’s senior leadership.
Did you ever hear of one, just one, Battalion Commander, Brigade Commander or General Officer who did a tour in Afghanistan say that they failed their mission?
No, at their departure Ceremony, they all achieved their goals and accomplished their missions in a glorious manner. Then how can that be? That in 20 years and hundreds of Units deploying to Afghanistan, if everybody accomplished their mission, How did we lose against a bunch of tribal hill men?
This situation of defeat at the hands of third world army is unfathomable. But what really makes me worry is this. Come to today…….Most, if not all, the Ukrainian Army’s Offensive plans were probably created by the Military Group of the US Embassy in Kiev by a “best and brightest” officer staff. We see how that turned out. It tells me that the Military has learned nothing.
RG Fausti
LTC , IN
US Army (ret)
Thanks for the very thorough response.
You are welcome.
Scrambling seems to fit pretty good. Just now figuring things out is pretty lame. Won't be enough and our military will be at significant risk. US doesn't adapt well on the fly. We consider "air power" supreme and in my opinion will be the most significant contribution if hostilities break out. As others and Davis suggests, very reactive, not a good look. Further, straining the military sets other factions in motion across the globe.
The Danny Davis video is terrifying.
The unfortunately the situation is even worse. We are making more of the same old cold war era stuff, while the Russians are innovating.
It’s strange that an administration that is castrating the U.S. military is such a huge bully.
Plus the current gradual escalation reminds me of Johnson in Vietnam, where he micro managed.
Gonna need to re-visit that list you provided a few days ago with a couple of updates if this escalation takes place.
What are the anti Trump forces willing to do to defeat him?
The usual cheating and fortification may not be enough.
Two videos that just changed my world view.
Tom Luongo had an interview 3 weeks ago mentioning $20 oil as the title.
His point was the Blackrock etc. will do anything necessary to get their candidate in power, including losing lots of money for $20 oil. And it’s not their money anyway.
And then he mentioned Lehman brothers was allowed to fail to get Obama into office.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCW5uhjsVkg
And then I finally started listening to the Alex Jones Tucker interview. He forecast 9-11, based on what Dick Cheneys group said was necessary a terrorist Pearl Harbor, to get a security state.
My first time ever listening to him. I expected a buffoon, but instead he basis his work on analysis. And why was he so absolutely deplatformed? He reminds me of the jihad against Assange.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1732897835572461582/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1732897835572461582
And what happened in 2020, and the continued jihad against Trump. More evidence of how far the anti Trumpers are willing to go. They are destroying the global trust and respect of the U.S. rule of law and elections to Get Trump.
How do you forecast this level of fanaticism that any means possible is acceptable to achieve their goals.
No, the US is not ready for war with 34 Trillion of debt, no shared cultural values, its attack on liberty and the rule of law, and a feeble senile old grifter in office all highly representative of what the US has become. I hope to God you are wrong about our involvement with Israel in support of a regional war. I mean, its good MIC business, and all, but we all lose in ways not imagined once a regional war erupts into a world war because there is a lot of blowback to be had from the ROW. I wouldn't want my son or daughters to fight for Joe Biden's corrupt administration.
Josef Stolen is scrambled in the head.
Moe B.
Jim Stone speculated that Israeli covid inoculation numbers were grossly exaggerated on purpose and that little were administrated among the population.
There also seems to be serious disagreement within the DC neocon group between the "We want war at all costs" segment (Nuland, Bolton, Kagan, etc.) and the "We want war too but we also need to win an election" segment (Sullivan, Blinken). The Two Alexes talk about this in detail, siting the withdrawal of the USS Eisenhower as proof that Blinken and Co. are trying to de-escalate. Who knows? As you say, Mark, the Biden Regime is in full scramble mode and is not in control of events.
I think it's the USS Ford that's leaving the Med and according to the USNI Fleet tracker the Eisenhower is moving north up the canal I assume to take it's place. Plus the Vinson on the move West from the Far East. https://news.usni.org/2024/01/04/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-jan-4-2023
Note: USNI Fleet tracker is updated once a week.
Thanks, Cardi. Interesting!
I think most are assuming a low profile for awhile.
We need a global tracking app for globalists.
They are set to gather in one single location in Davos.
May they choke on their fondue!
One would assume the American Jewish lobby is on board. Meaning the Deep State will continue to lead the way.
Maybe the US can offer pro-bono DEI courses as an alternative.
That's what killed my support for Israel. Their Covid response was pure fascism.