Is America Ready For War?
I have a few things going on today, so I want to get this out early. I’m firmly convinced that Israel is doing its best to get the US into a regional war in the Middle East. The reason for that is that Israel realizes that it is no longer in control of events. It needs Uncle to come in and sort things out—at least to the extent that Israel will be unthreatened for perhaps a decade. That may give the Zionist entity an opportunity to secure its position, at least in the minds of its rulers. Two things to keep in mind. First, there is a very good chance that a regional war could develop into a global war. Second, while there is no shortage of warmongers in DC, there are others who realize that an honest risk/benefit analysis may skew toward risk.
Now to give an idea of why Israel understands that it is no longer in control, consider this:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
⚡ 🇮🇱 Israel's Defense Ministry announced that 12,500 of its soldiers may be classified as disabled after the war, meaning they have varying degrees of disability.
This is far above the number of casualties reported by the IDF until now.
This number coincides with what I wrote a few weeks ago about the huge casualties of the Israeli army. This figure of 12,500 is those seriously injured. The total number of injured is far higher.
Most of those casualties are likely to have come from what pass for frontline units in the IOF. Those are casualties that Israel cannot afford and will be hard pressed to replace. In addition, this admission from the government gives credence to the claims of many that the KIA stats are also higher than have been reported. It also gives pause when you reflect on Kirby’s statement yesterday that Hamas retains a “significant force profile” in Gaza. Put it together and that does not give you a picture of a military that is ready to duke it out with Hezbollah on the ground. And a purely airborne offensive is bound to fail, as in the past, as in Gaza in the present. Israel needs, not just US munitions (which the US really can’t afford to lavish on Israel indefinitely, in light of Ukraine), but direct, boots on the ground, US involvement.
The problem is that at least some among our rulers have a clue that the US, as well, is no longer in control of events. Not in Europe, not in the Far East, and not in the Middle East/South Asia. Danny Davis addresses these issues in the video below—25 or so highly recommended minutes. However, before I embed that, I want to quote from a Politico article that Davis quotes briefly:
The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
That could put President Joe Biden in the center of a messy Middle East conflict in the midst of a bruising re-election campaign.
Another U.S. official stressed that the administration’s concerns about a wider war in the region aren’t new. The official said the U.S. has for weeks been worried about the war in Gaza escalating and that there was no indication that the threats to U.S. troops overseas had expanded in recent days.
However, there are other signs the administration is worried about those threats increasing. In the aftermath of the attack in Iran on Wednesday, officials across the administration from the Pentagon to the State Department to the intelligence agencies began assessing how Iran or its proxy forces in the Middle East could directly target the U.S. or its allies in the region.
Such contingency planning is normal in states of heightened tension in the Middle East, officials said. But the scramble inside the administration to draw up reports on potential points of attacks and possible U.S. responses this week came as a result of orders from the top echelons of the administration over fears that the violence in the region will only continue to grow and that Washington will eventually have to intervene.
Of particular concern is the potential for escalation in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks against merchant vessels there prompted the U.S. last month to announce the start of a new international maritime coalition to deter these attacks.
The key word above is “scramble”. The US has been in scramble mode for nearly two years, and nothing is getting better. Events are beyond our control and we’re largely just reacting. To what extent does the Zhou regime exercise control over Israel? That’s open to question, and has to be a major reason that the article uses words like “scramble” and “fear”.
So with that in mind, listen to Davis, speaking from the heart:
LJ has an eye opener on Israeli military/political (because it's all connected) preparedness:
ISRAEL’S “UNITY” GOVERNMENT IN CHAOS OVER CALLS TO INVESTIGATE ISRAEL’S FAILURE ON OCTOBER 7
https://sonar21.com/israels-unity-government-in-chaos-over-calls-to-investigate-israels-failure-on-october-7/
Is the US Military ready for war? The answer is yes and no. It is yes, if we are going to fight a third world force with no depth or robust economic support. Think Iraq, Yugoslavia or Panama.
If you are talking against the Russians or Chinese, the answer is definitely no.
Why? You may ask, how is this possible, when our military strength is so large? It has to do with a lot of factors. Let’s take the easy ones, the obvious ones first.
1. Logistics: Erwin Rommel said that Logisticians determine the battle before it even begins. Three factors are involved here.
a. How much material, arms and weapons you have on hand?
b. How much economic/industrial capacity do you have to replace the weapons and armaments you burn up in a combat zone?
c. Last, but very important, how long are your lines of re-supply.
With the current reports of what we have on hand:
a. We have sufficient weapons and material to take on a small force. But to take on the Chinese or Russians, we would probably run out of needed items in about a week to a month: depending on the specific item.
b. We have the capability to “slowly” replace our military items for a little war. But for a large war, with Russian/Ukrainian war type expenditure rates, we would be sadly deficient.
c. In a small war against a much weaker Nation, long lines of communication and re-supply are not that critical. Why? Because for all intense and purposes, when compared to the Might and Power of the United States of America, you are clubbing baby seals. Simple as that. But when you fight a peer competitor in a High Intensity conflict, resupply times and distances matter.
To fight the Russians in Ukraine or the Chinese in the Pacific area of Taiwan is a recipe for disaster. Especially the Chinese scenario. You are asking for a major defeat. Why? Because that zone of operations has the largest aircraft carrier in the world: Mainland China. The proximity of Mainland China dominates that whole area from the Parcels in the South to the Chunxiao Gas Field in the North.
The Chinese can deploy hundreds of aircraft and thousands of missiles from inland installations. And what are you going to do, bomb mainland China? Put it this way, it would be like the Chinese trying to attack an island off the West Coast of the United States, they wouldn’t stand a chance.
Another factor. In a war with a peer military state, you also have to consider loss rates of capital ships and fleets of aircraft. If loss rates are high ,this begs the question: do you have sufficient ports, skilled labor and parts /material on hand to “quickly” repair ships and aircraft? For aircraft such as the F16, F22 and F35 maybe. The B21 , B2 and B1, not really.
The ability to repair ships? Look at the repair times needed for peace time accidents involving the USS McCain or USS San Francisco. A nice point of reference is :
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/december/repair-time-critical-variable
Repair Time Is the Critical Variable, By Lieutenant Keegan Hoey, U.S. Navy, December 2022, Proceedings.
The subject of “Is the US Military ready for war” is a multifactored subject that you could spend pages on. The words I have written above are just a very short answer which says…..maybe, just maybe….it depends who you fight.
One last thought. Guys like Keene get paid to mold opinion and manufacture a consent narrative. Keene, Petraeus, McCaffery , and Hodges say things that a capable Captain of Infantry, with a modicum knowledge of history, would find ridiculous. But that is what they get paid for.
Lastly, I will say this, because it colors my thought concerning the competency of the US Military’s senior leadership.
Did you ever hear of one, just one, Battalion Commander, Brigade Commander or General Officer who did a tour in Afghanistan say that they failed their mission?
No, at their departure Ceremony, they all achieved their goals and accomplished their missions in a glorious manner. Then how can that be? That in 20 years and hundreds of Units deploying to Afghanistan, if everybody accomplished their mission, How did we lose against a bunch of tribal hill men?
This situation of defeat at the hands of third world army is unfathomable. But what really makes me worry is this. Come to today…….Most, if not all, the Ukrainian Army’s Offensive plans were probably created by the Military Group of the US Embassy in Kiev by a “best and brightest” officer staff. We see how that turned out. It tells me that the Military has learned nothing.
RG Fausti
LTC , IN
US Army (ret)