I’m going to cautiously suggest that, despite continuing warfare—both kinetic and rhetorical, there may be hope that Israel will refrain from a ground invasion of Gaza, thus averting the worst of a humanitarian calamity.
I hope things play out in this direction. We in the U.S. have to find a way to rope in the neocons in our own country. Their meddling and instigations have crushed our opportunities to usher in prosperity and peace into a dangerous world. In fact, misery and dangerous alliances everywhere can and should be laid at their feet, along with a staggering national debt and the coming collapse of the world’s economy. If we are judged by history based on missed opportunities, we in the U.S. have truly cleared the field of all competition and deserve the triple crown of moral and diplomatic failure. What country if it possesses any Wisdom at all would engineer much less allow the horrible neighborhood Israel finds itself in today? Land for peace, destroying Libya, propping up Iran, winking and nodding at a nuclear Iran, doing all we can to cultivate the most dangerous alliance of bad actors the world has ever seen then invite China into the Middle East? Anyone who foretold these things would’ve rightly been excluded from sane conversation and sitting in the corner. You just can’t make this crap up! There’s your sign..
WW2 was a continuation of WW1 in many respects, right?
Is the coming WW3 just another continuation of WW2? Settling of unresolved issues coming to a head?
I say this because the formal recognition of the state of Israel was an outcome of WW2 in many respects. But the core issues involved were never satisfactorily resolved at the time and kicked down the road and allowed to fester for all of these years.
I don’t know. Something that’s rattling around in the brain.
Very interesting point. Alex M at the Duran seems more to favour the cause of the delay as Israeli waiting till all its forces are fully mobilised. They also lost a lot of their 155mm artillery stocks when the US diverted them to Ukraine. However, there definitely seems to be a serious backlash towards Israel's "bomb them back into the Stone Age" policy developing among the regional and international heavyweights.
Can Israel fight and target Hamas destroying it / killing the majority of members with a low civilian body count?
Basically how Russia is de nazifying Ukraine by luring them into attacks.
Perhaps Israel believes by evacuating the civilians from an area, they remove the use of civilian shields, as Hamas has placed stuff in civilian areas. This way they can destroy tunnels, missiles, arms depots, etc. without civilian casualties.
Or will Hamas just hide among the refugees.
Netanyahu has traditionally been restrained in his use of the Israeli Military.
Netanyahu‘s career is over probably (he’s been written off before), so he may be focused on solving the Hamas issue permanently.
I follow Richard Medhurst YouTube channel. Not the most polished or articulate person but he covers many topics I find others shy away from. Kinda a junior Aaron Mate’.
Speaking of Aaron. He has a lengthy Substack out today that covers a lot of historical ground on this subject.
As for the Israeli delay? Not buying it. My guess is there plan is to reduce the size if the Gaza Strip by 50%. Time will tell.
Speaking of Aaron Maté...one of the reasons he is so thoughtful and impressive is that he has a very thoughtful and impressive father, by the name of Gabor Maté, a physician in Vancouver, CN and a well-known and applauded author.
Gabor Maté posted this video about the situation in Israel the other day, which my wife found and which we both think is extremely moving:
So Israel is supposed to call it just another day in the neighborhood and bury its 1300 dead and wait for more rockets and motorized hang gliders? So the Zionist experiment is kaput and the Jews ought to go back to where they came from? Is that how you propose to settle the “Final Solution of the Jewish Question.”
In addition to calling it a day, they might check their security around the border with Gaza. Exactly how this failure was possible on so many levels remains a conundrum that has not been adequately explained.
Is the Zionist experiment kaput? That depends. I doubt that it is kaput in the mind of Zionist true believers. Among all others, yes, Zionism will come under increasingly devastating critique. It will increasingly be exposed as a bad idea at best--unjust, delusional.
So that’s why there are white, black, and brown Jewish Israelis? Just which race do the Zionists believe is supreme? Huskynut, when is your concentration camp guard training complete?
Perhaps 'tribal' supremacy would be a good compromise? As in so many things, I believe there is not complete agreement among self identified Jews on these matters, although your view would clearly be the majority.
Maybe it's common knowledge to most, but I just found out that Israel is about half/half Mizrahi ("oriental" or middle eastern) and Ashkenazi (Euro). Former tends to be more right, more religious; the latter more left, more secular. Mizrahi's are gaining political/cultural clout and the recent judicial kerfuffle seems to split along these lines.
It's a real possibility. The US drew large amounts of 155mm munitions that were stockpiled in Israel and sent it all to Ukraine--I presume it's all been used up by now. If the US was worried that supplies were already short, you can be sure they're alarmed at the prospect of Israel demanding resupply far what would surely be a munitions intensive war, especially if Hezbollah gets involved. There's simply no way Israel's economy can support any long war.
The good news is that we’re seeing conflicting reports of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah today, while Israel has postponed their invasion of Gaza for the time being. It will be touch and go this week, however, as there are too many imperatives outside of the Middle East pushing this into a potentially wider conflict.
For now, it looks like the US is being forced to choose between Ukraine and Israel. The UK still wants both conflicts and Europe just wants the US to die. The feeling is mutual in D.C. towards Brussels. If you can’t see that at this point, I can’t help you.
Watch Russia’s response here as everything that has unfolded so far breaks in their favor with higher oil prices, Arab solidarity with the Palestinians, and real fracturing in Europe over continuing Project Ukraine.
Unfortunately, for Israel, they have no good options here, and that means they will likely do what is ultimately in their best interests despite the wider consequences.
Ha, and here's the man himself! Putin is playing his cards very close to his chest for the time being. As for the EU, I hope with all my heart that Tom is right. The Euroweenie nations need to start telling DC AND Brussels where to get off.
I say this precisely BECAUSE I understand that Israel is fighting for its existence. For that reason I'm arguing--cautiously, mind you--that they will come to their senses and forego the joys of revenge in favor of securing their existence by listening to their hegemonic protector and to world opinion, thus safeguarding their economy. Nuking Gaza would hardly preserve Israel.
Let us hope they do listen rather than make a spur of the moment revenge-based decision. Leveling Gaza and killing many non-combatants is not how to start the new post-hegemonic era. The world is changing and this hegemon like all others is temporary. What comes next? In a multipolar world with two or three great powers Israel needs to keep favor with the majority. It needs to figure out how to live with 3-4 states with nuclear weapons in its immediate neighborhood. Nukes that are minutes away or that perhaps can be smuggled in somehow. Perhaps this mobilization is designed to prevent further incursions from Gaza. If Hamas really has tens of thousands of troops ready to fight in Gaza a large blocking force is needed to hold them in place. By waiting Israel avoids the trap of urban combat with high civilian casualties. Low on 155mm ammo? How to avoid the need? Prevent further attacks by Hamas which would be suicidal on open ground against the assembled IDF. Encourage civilians to leave. Bomb selected targets of demonstrable threat: rocket launchers, tunnel systems, troop and weapon concentrations, and show evidence of the threat to the world. Avoid invasion on a large scale and perhaps only perform raids where possible hostages are or to liberate groups of Palestinian civilians/human shields. Learn from our experience in Afghanistan: raid, do not invade. Degrade Hamas and start talking to everyone. Russia? China? Who has influence that will end the threat? What if Russia and China mediate a solution, throw a lot of money around, and undo this Gordian Knot? Can anyone guarantee Israel security that will allow for long-term survival? Will being embedded in BRIICS (BRIIICS?) achieve that? Or are they going the way of South Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq/Ukraine/US Citizens to be Deprogrammed?
They may well try, Lawrence, but I think the result will be different from what you think. And how will they "liberate" territory that doesn't belong to them? Comparing maps of Palestinian land holdings in 1948 and today, I'd say it was the Palestinians who are fighting for their survival.
Well, we'll see over the next few weeks and months what killing large numbers of Palestinians achieves. I doubt events will conform to your cartoon book version of reality.
Every Israeli is no doubt sickened by what Hamas did, but I seriously doubt that they will all support a ground invasion. The country is already split down the middle, and many are wise enough to know that the IDF will take horrible casualties, and that the new regional and global realities and realignments mean that the regime won't get away with it so easily as in the past.
You’re in good company out on that limb! Just saw this from Bahdrakumar:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-faces-defeat-in-geopolitical-war-in-gaza/
Thanks, will read, catching up on comments now. Yes, as if the destruction of NATO weren't enough for the Neocons, further isolation of the US ...
Perhaps it's inevitable and good may come from a geopolitical retrenchment.
Yes, let’s hope so!
I hope things play out in this direction. We in the U.S. have to find a way to rope in the neocons in our own country. Their meddling and instigations have crushed our opportunities to usher in prosperity and peace into a dangerous world. In fact, misery and dangerous alliances everywhere can and should be laid at their feet, along with a staggering national debt and the coming collapse of the world’s economy. If we are judged by history based on missed opportunities, we in the U.S. have truly cleared the field of all competition and deserve the triple crown of moral and diplomatic failure. What country if it possesses any Wisdom at all would engineer much less allow the horrible neighborhood Israel finds itself in today? Land for peace, destroying Libya, propping up Iran, winking and nodding at a nuclear Iran, doing all we can to cultivate the most dangerous alliance of bad actors the world has ever seen then invite China into the Middle East? Anyone who foretold these things would’ve rightly been excluded from sane conversation and sitting in the corner. You just can’t make this crap up! There’s your sign..
Reconcile this with Blinken’s outreach to China.
https://www.newarab.com/news/us-state-dept-memo-prohibits-de-escalatory-framing-gaza?amp
WW2 was a continuation of WW1 in many respects, right?
Is the coming WW3 just another continuation of WW2? Settling of unresolved issues coming to a head?
I say this because the formal recognition of the state of Israel was an outcome of WW2 in many respects. But the core issues involved were never satisfactorily resolved at the time and kicked down the road and allowed to fester for all of these years.
I don’t know. Something that’s rattling around in the brain.
Very interesting point. Alex M at the Duran seems more to favour the cause of the delay as Israeli waiting till all its forces are fully mobilised. They also lost a lot of their 155mm artillery stocks when the US diverted them to Ukraine. However, there definitely seems to be a serious backlash towards Israel's "bomb them back into the Stone Age" policy developing among the regional and international heavyweights.
My thinking aligns with the Duran duo.
Can Israel fight and target Hamas destroying it / killing the majority of members with a low civilian body count?
Basically how Russia is de nazifying Ukraine by luring them into attacks.
Perhaps Israel believes by evacuating the civilians from an area, they remove the use of civilian shields, as Hamas has placed stuff in civilian areas. This way they can destroy tunnels, missiles, arms depots, etc. without civilian casualties.
Or will Hamas just hide among the refugees.
Netanyahu has traditionally been restrained in his use of the Israeli Military.
Netanyahu‘s career is over probably (he’s been written off before), so he may be focused on solving the Hamas issue permanently.
Meanwhile Hamas blockades Gaza residents from fleeing.
I follow Richard Medhurst YouTube channel. Not the most polished or articulate person but he covers many topics I find others shy away from. Kinda a junior Aaron Mate’.
Speaking of Aaron. He has a lengthy Substack out today that covers a lot of historical ground on this subject.
As for the Israeli delay? Not buying it. My guess is there plan is to reduce the size if the Gaza Strip by 50%. Time will tell.
Speaking of Aaron Maté...one of the reasons he is so thoughtful and impressive is that he has a very thoughtful and impressive father, by the name of Gabor Maté, a physician in Vancouver, CN and a well-known and applauded author.
Gabor Maté posted this video about the situation in Israel the other day, which my wife found and which we both think is extremely moving:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6_GDDa4bmI
Yep Cass I'm familiar with his father Gabor. Great blood line thinkers. I'll check out the video. thx for this.
"If you think there's a solution you're part of the problem."
- George Carlin
‐‐----------'
That's where I'm at now...
LOL! But is agreeing that there's no solution actually ... a solution?
Thought provoking isn't it?
It's a direct challenge to Human Nature and Governing Bodies
Turns everything upside down
Like I said, I don't have any idea anymore, at all.
“It also says a lot about “ about all those people who think that killing other humans is okay because they are right.
“To kill another human being is called murder, but to kill in an organised way in war is considered moral.” J.Krishnamurti
Or that two wrongs somehow make a right?
So Israel is supposed to call it just another day in the neighborhood and bury its 1300 dead and wait for more rockets and motorized hang gliders? So the Zionist experiment is kaput and the Jews ought to go back to where they came from? Is that how you propose to settle the “Final Solution of the Jewish Question.”
In addition to calling it a day, they might check their security around the border with Gaza. Exactly how this failure was possible on so many levels remains a conundrum that has not been adequately explained.
Is the Zionist experiment kaput? That depends. I doubt that it is kaput in the mind of Zionist true believers. Among all others, yes, Zionism will come under increasingly devastating critique. It will increasingly be exposed as a bad idea at best--unjust, delusional.
"unjust, delusional..."
Or perhaps simply unworkable.
I might like it if everyone here in the good ol' USA worshipped my god...but that's just not gonna work.
So that’s why there are white, black, and brown Jewish Israelis? Just which race do the Zionists believe is supreme? Huskynut, when is your concentration camp guard training complete?
Perhaps 'tribal' supremacy would be a good compromise? As in so many things, I believe there is not complete agreement among self identified Jews on these matters, although your view would clearly be the majority.
Maybe it's common knowledge to most, but I just found out that Israel is about half/half Mizrahi ("oriental" or middle eastern) and Ashkenazi (Euro). Former tends to be more right, more religious; the latter more left, more secular. Mizrahi's are gaining political/cultural clout and the recent judicial kerfuffle seems to split along these lines.
Methinks Israel might have realised the rumours of Ukraine sucking up all the Western arms and ammo is true.
Its hard to start an ammo heavy invasion without it.
Everyone suddenly wants peace when they realise they will loose the attrition warefare.
Yep. Israel has great high-tech industries but it is too small to have a large industrial capacity. it relies on Uncle Sam for most everything.
It's a real possibility. The US drew large amounts of 155mm munitions that were stockpiled in Israel and sent it all to Ukraine--I presume it's all been used up by now. If the US was worried that supplies were already short, you can be sure they're alarmed at the prospect of Israel demanding resupply far what would surely be a munitions intensive war, especially if Hezbollah gets involved. There's simply no way Israel's economy can support any long war.
Full Disclosure--in case you hadn't figured this out yet:
If I'm right I'll take full credit. If I'm wrong about an Israeli invasion, I'll just say I knew I was going out on a limb, so no big deal.
Mark, you're stepping into Tom L's "Theory of Everything" territory on this one! :)
Kinda like belonging to two religions.
Well, you seem to have it all figured out.
Luongo:
The good news is that we’re seeing conflicting reports of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah today, while Israel has postponed their invasion of Gaza for the time being. It will be touch and go this week, however, as there are too many imperatives outside of the Middle East pushing this into a potentially wider conflict.
For now, it looks like the US is being forced to choose between Ukraine and Israel. The UK still wants both conflicts and Europe just wants the US to die. The feeling is mutual in D.C. towards Brussels. If you can’t see that at this point, I can’t help you.
Watch Russia’s response here as everything that has unfolded so far breaks in their favor with higher oil prices, Arab solidarity with the Palestinians, and real fracturing in Europe over continuing Project Ukraine.
Unfortunately, for Israel, they have no good options here, and that means they will likely do what is ultimately in their best interests despite the wider consequences.
Ha, and here's the man himself! Putin is playing his cards very close to his chest for the time being. As for the EU, I hope with all my heart that Tom is right. The Euroweenie nations need to start telling DC AND Brussels where to get off.
Curious to consider how the UN may react to this given their dismissal of Russia's UN actions to bring forth the Nord Stream incident.
Election season (for all) is just around the corner.
"And you must always remember they are fighting for their existence as a state and a people." Unlike the Palestinians?
I say this precisely BECAUSE I understand that Israel is fighting for its existence. For that reason I'm arguing--cautiously, mind you--that they will come to their senses and forego the joys of revenge in favor of securing their existence by listening to their hegemonic protector and to world opinion, thus safeguarding their economy. Nuking Gaza would hardly preserve Israel.
Let us hope they do listen rather than make a spur of the moment revenge-based decision. Leveling Gaza and killing many non-combatants is not how to start the new post-hegemonic era. The world is changing and this hegemon like all others is temporary. What comes next? In a multipolar world with two or three great powers Israel needs to keep favor with the majority. It needs to figure out how to live with 3-4 states with nuclear weapons in its immediate neighborhood. Nukes that are minutes away or that perhaps can be smuggled in somehow. Perhaps this mobilization is designed to prevent further incursions from Gaza. If Hamas really has tens of thousands of troops ready to fight in Gaza a large blocking force is needed to hold them in place. By waiting Israel avoids the trap of urban combat with high civilian casualties. Low on 155mm ammo? How to avoid the need? Prevent further attacks by Hamas which would be suicidal on open ground against the assembled IDF. Encourage civilians to leave. Bomb selected targets of demonstrable threat: rocket launchers, tunnel systems, troop and weapon concentrations, and show evidence of the threat to the world. Avoid invasion on a large scale and perhaps only perform raids where possible hostages are or to liberate groups of Palestinian civilians/human shields. Learn from our experience in Afghanistan: raid, do not invade. Degrade Hamas and start talking to everyone. Russia? China? Who has influence that will end the threat? What if Russia and China mediate a solution, throw a lot of money around, and undo this Gordian Knot? Can anyone guarantee Israel security that will allow for long-term survival? Will being embedded in BRIICS (BRIIICS?) achieve that? Or are they going the way of South Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq/Ukraine/US Citizens to be Deprogrammed?
They may well try, Lawrence, but I think the result will be different from what you think. And how will they "liberate" territory that doesn't belong to them? Comparing maps of Palestinian land holdings in 1948 and today, I'd say it was the Palestinians who are fighting for their survival.
OK, that's enough, you psycho.
Well, we'll see over the next few weeks and months what killing large numbers of Palestinians achieves. I doubt events will conform to your cartoon book version of reality.
Firstly, warfare has changed. Those tanks won't survive. Secondly, as Mark lays out very clearly in the article, world opinion won't allow it.
Death to anyone who resists--brought to Arabs since 1948.
Every Israeli is no doubt sickened by what Hamas did, but I seriously doubt that they will all support a ground invasion. The country is already split down the middle, and many are wise enough to know that the IDF will take horrible casualties, and that the new regional and global realities and realignments mean that the regime won't get away with it so easily as in the past.