I Edge Cautiously Out On A Limb

I’m going to cautiously suggest that, despite continuing warfare—both kinetic and rhetorical, there may be hope that Israel will refrain from a ground invasion of Gaza, thus averting the worst of a humanitarian calamity. This will also avert the worst of what could be a political calamity for both the US and Israel. In this scenario, Israel will continue its attacks on Gaza for an additional, indefinite, period of time but will then declare victory while reserving the right to launch further attacks if Hamas continues its own. The US will then claim a diplomatic and humanitarian success. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and possibly other countries will also claim successes, of various sorts. Hamas, too, will claim victory.

The main driving force in this will be the Zhou administration’s need to avoid war at almost any cost. How high a price will the Neocons pay to avoid full scale war? Blinken has “urged”—begged?—Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to use his influence to prevent a widening war. What happened to war with China by 2025? This open appeal to China is a measure of US desperation because it raises China’s diplomatic standing to hitherto unheard of levels in a part of the world that the US considered its backyard. It is a recognition of China’s role as a player in the Middle East that can’t really be withdrawn.

Israel will go along with the Neocons because it finds itself suddenly isolated as it has not been for many years. Despite official EU statements, European nations are also desperate to have this crisis end.

Olga Bazova

@OlgaBazova

The unelected gynecologist Ursula von der Leyen, posing as the President of the EU Commission, has unconditionally promised the support to Israel to a degree at which the so-called head of the EU diplomacy Josep Borrell had to say that she doesn't speak for the whole EU.

11:48 AM · Oct 15, 2023

World opinion has predictably shifted from sympathy to revulsion at Israeli calls for genocide—claims, for example, by Israeli president Isaac Herzog that there are no innocent civilians in Gaza. This outrageous statement has been contradicted by Zhou, which is a probable indication that the Neocons are concerned about how long public opinion in the US can hold.

You can read the latest on the diplomatic maneuvering at Zerohedge:

Israel-Hamas War Latest: Israeli Troops Amass At Border As Iran Warns It Will Intervene If Ground Offensive Launched

In the early days of the Hamas operation it seemed clear that the Israeli government was determined to make the most of this opportunity:

Jackson Hinkle 

@jacksonhinklle

The Israeli Government’s X account (@Israel) was CAUGHT faking a photo of a child’s bedroom covered in blood. The “blood” on the coloring book paper is pink, not the dark red color it should be if it is actually blood.

11:10 AM · Oct 15, 2023

It goes without saying that the Israeli government wasn’t about to place the blame where it ultimately and properly lays:

Faber Tignarius

@FTignarius

Someone have to tell her that....

12:57 PM · Oct 14, 2023

Some blowback! Who was it that said the most dangerous position in the world was as a friend of the US? Oh, yeah—that Kissinger guy. Well, I guess he knew a thing or two. Israel is finding that out the hard way.

John Frum

@JohnFrumVolcano

Brzezinski - The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives: "Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'antihegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances."

8:05 PM · Oct 14, 2023

Woops! And now the world hegemon is begging China to save us from this looming disaster?

Increasingly, however, it appears that Israel is stepping back from the abyss that the past two governments have been rushing towards by embracing the settler/religious nationalism movements for their political gain. Netanyahu, while promising there is “more to come,” as there no doubt is, has stopped short of invading Gaza. Call me naive, but I believe that the longer Netahyahu delays, the less likely an actual invasion becomes. No doubt the military establishment has played a part in persuading Netanyahu that Israel is simply not prepared for full scale war, as it would unfold—especially if other players like Hezbollah opened up a second front. The rapid turnaround of world reaction has probably been another important factor. Israel cannot afford diplomatic and possibly economic isolation, after spenging decades establishing itself as a seemingly normal country.

I want to highly recommend an article by Arnaud Bertrand that was republished at MoA:

Arnaud Bertrand - How Israel Stepped Into A Trap

One of the more interesting arguments I've been seeing A LOT on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is: "Hamas undoubtedly predicted Israel's massive retaliation, that makes them all the more guilty for sacrificing Palestinian lives".

What people don't realize is that the fact this reaction - the massive collective punishment - was indeed immensely predictable says just as much about Israel than it does about Hamas.

It says a lot about Israel for 3 reasons. 1) It says a lot about Israel's image that it was expected to react with massive collective punishment, violating international law. 2) It also says a lot about Israel's inability to think strategically that it would react in exactly the way its adversary predicted it to. Revenge is not a strategy, in fact it is the opposite of strategic. And, lastly 3) it says a lot that Israel doesn't seem to have learned a thing from the US's immense mistakes in its post 9-11 response.

…

This looks to be, unfortunately, a competition for whom can gain the most sympathy from the outside world for their suffering. And from where I am standing, Israel is losing big time by playing into the hand of its adversary. …

…

What should Israel have done instead? Well, they should have recognized which war Hamas was baiting them into. …

…

This war also reveals something interesting, and I'll end with this. It reveals how much power and influence the wider West has lost in driving the global conversation. …

And then he goes on to cite the Neocon appeal to China to help us out of this mess.

I’ll finish with a Youtube video that shows Israel at its worst—in the person of Naftali Bennet. The Youtuber is Richard Medhurst. There’s a language warning that goes with this video. Also, Medhurst makes some incorrect statements. One, which he plays up, is that Bennett can be fairly characterized as an American. That’s the impression Medhurst conveys. In fact, Bennett was born in Haifa, but his family shuttled between Israel, the US, and Canada. However, as I gather, from about the age of 10 Bennett has lived in Israel, although no doubt traveling on business. So ignore that and focus on Bennett and the Sky News reporter attempting to interview Bennett:

There are actually a lot of important moral questions that are raised in this video. Moral equivalency, legitimacy of retaliation and its limits, etc. While granting the heat of the moment, Bennett isn’t a guy for moral subtleties. As reported by the WaPo, he seems to equate terrorists with Arabs:

Last year, Israeli Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett suggested that Palestinian terrorists should be shot, not arrested and released. He also said, in a cabinet meeting, "I already killed lots of Arabs in my life, and there is absolutely no problem with that."

How representative is Bennett of Israelis in general? I don’t know. I know that I’ve had to delete comments that are calls for genocide or retaliation that clearly constitutes war crimes. Bennett and his ilk are doing Israel and normal Israelis no favor. They are backing Israel into a corner. As for Americans, we need to demand some moral accountability from our own representatives and our Deep State. We need to demand an end playing the world like a chess game with no regard for human decency. That’s only a part of the real way forward, but it’s a necessary part.