Global War Updates--Trade And Kinetic

We’ll start with the Trade War—ignoring the silly propaganda regarding the TBA “major” tariff deal with the UK - US. The real news is that reps of China and the US will meet in formerly neutral Switzerland. PP is saying, don’t expect much. US wants this, but China probably doesn’t. China is probably looking more toward holding its trade allies together at this point.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Even this generous assessment is a misreading. China has offset the demand lost from having the US market effectively cut off. This signals that the US will enter negotiations thinking they have leverage and China will just sit there. Much like Russia in the Ukraine talks.

The latest plan is to use access to the American GPU market as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The problem is that China will probably be able to offer its own in a few years. Also, do most countries really need these chips so long as they have access to the product?

Last edited8:37 AM · May 7, 2025

Have you noticed this too?

On the war on Russia front, revelations of what everyone already knew. Maybe this guy is auditioning for a media consultant gig?

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

The US used Ukrainians to bleed & weaken Russia: - Russia considers NATO expansion to Ukraine to be an existential threat, which is why the US avoided nuclear war - Do we still have to pretend that NATO's objective is to "help" Ukraine?

12:35 PM · May 6, 2025

Speaking of China and Russia, Xi Jinping is in Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day parade, and he has published a major Op Ed. This looks quite significant for the future—global conflict. The US wants to bring it all to a head, but China and Russia prefer to attrit American hegemony (thus Trump’s constant complaints that others are “tapping him along”):

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

Xi Jinping wrote an article in Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta ahead of his 4-day trip to Russia (he does this whenever he visits a country).

There are quite a few significant statements in there.

Probably the main one is when he writes that "80 years ago, just forces all over the world, including China and the Soviet Union, united to fight a common enemy and triumphed over fascism. Today, 80 years later, unilateralism, hegemony and acts of bullying are inflicting severe harm, and humanity once again stands at a crossroads. Where to go next, what to choose: solidarity or division, dialogue or confrontation, universal gain or a zero-sum game?"

No brownie point for guessing who he's referring to... And frankly, he isn't wrong.

He adds that "it is important to firmly defend the post-war international order", and in particular "the creation of the United Nations" which he says "was perhaps the most important decision made by the world community at the end of World War II."

On the UN he writes: "The more complex the international situation becomes, the more important it is to protect and ensure the authority of the UN, to firmly uphold the UN-centric world order based on international law, the basic norms of international relations based on the goals and principles of the UN Charter, to consistently promote the formation of an equal and orderly multipolar world, universally accessible and inclusive economic globalization."

All in all, this is a continuation of what we've now been seeing for quite a few years: China has become the great power that most staunchly supports multilateral institutions and international law, just as the U.S. is growing increasingly revisionist and dismissive of rules.

Which is par for the course in a great power transition: China's rise was enabled thanks to the current world order so they'll naturally seek to preserve it more than the US who are bound to see the current order as having simultaneously enabled their relative decline.

In the article Xi also naturally has some words on the China-Russia relationship which he characterizes a force preserving the world from hegemony: "China and Russia are significant powers that make a constructive contribution to maintaining global strategic stability and improving global governance. The world needs justice, not hegemony."

He precises that "China-Russia relations [...] are not directed against third parties" but that they are a "strategic link in promoting the multipolarity of the world and forming a community with a common future for mankind."

He also warns that China-Russia relations aren't "subject to [the] influence [of third parties]", probably a reference to talks of American attempts to effect a so-called "reverse Kissinger."

He writes that "both sides should jointly resist any attempts to sow discord in the friendship and mutual trust between China and Russia, without being distracted by short-term plots and opportunistic situations." Which probably serves as a way to reassure Russia that China isn't considering giving up on the friendship but also a warning that they shouldn't either.

All in all, Xi's article is a clear window into current Chinese strategic thinking. China is positioning itself as the defender of the post-WWII international order against "hegemonic" forces, casting the United States as the revisionist power. And the U.S. is increasingly obliging, validating China's arguments.

It's a very Daoist "wu-wei" (effortless action) approach: rather than directly confronting American power, China is harnessing the present momentum and redirecting it, achieving goals through alignment with existing forces rather than through direct opposition. What emerges is an incremental transformation: China doesn't need to overthrow the international order when it can simply outlast American commitment to it.

Link to the original article (in Russian): https://rg.ru/2025/05/07/uroki-proshlogo-vo-imia-budushchego.html

Re India - Pakistan …

It appears the conflict is escalating rapidly. Initially India claimed it was using its jets to attack terrorist bases on the Paki side of the ceasefire line—not Paki military sites. But the Pakis shot down something like 5 of the Indian jets—including 3 of the brand new (as of April) and super expensive French supplied Rafales. That has led India overnight to use Israeli supplied drones to attack Paki AD sites broadly. This map is not totally accurate, but gives an idea of how broad the conflict has quickly become. At this point there’s no telling where this will lead:

And the US is sending more B-52s to Diego Garcia.

In most moral army in the world news, boys will be girls:

The Cradle @TheCradleMedia

The Israeli army is withholding conscription orders from soldiers who have refused to fight, fearing they will not comply, according to sources cited by Haaretz.

Military sources admit that enlistment in the reserves is significantly lower than the officially stated 80%, exposing a growing gap between reported figures and on-the-ground reality.

One officer confirmed an increasing reliance on pressure tactics to compel service, as the army faces mounting difficulties in summoning troops.