When Henry Kissinger speaks, even now on the brink of turning centenarian, detractors and devotees. That’s because, as Alexander Mercouris put it today, no matter how you view Kissinger, no one has ever called him stupid. There has been a spate of articles lately regarding his views on the US war on Russia and China. For my money, this article (below) offers a pretty good survey of Kissinger’s legacy and his current embattled standing in the capitals of the West—Kissinger has become a pointed critic of the way the Rules Based Order has turned out. In fact, he anticipated the current crisis:
A screaming pack of sycophantic wolves brought to the teet and feudal... Usually. Or best medical money can buy or Hunter's Fear and Loathing adrenochrome... Or space aliens.
Is anyone else as embarrassed by Lindsay Graham as I am? “Russian’s are dying…it’s the best money we’ve ever spent..”. Seriously?
And the budget deal appears to be the Republicans again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But hey, we’ll gettem next time, right? I believe the phrase is, “screwed, blued and tattooed”.
Fake conservatives agree to fake spending cuts. Deal will increase mandatory spending ~5%, increase military spending ~3%, and maintain current non-military discretionary spending at post-COVID levels. No real cuts to see here.
Conservatives have been sold out once again!
Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch)
@TFL1728
·
29m
There is no reason for this 'deal' other than to not call @secyellen's bluff over the fake 6/5 x-date.
Draw this out to 6/15 when quarterly taxes start coming in. O'Biden will fold like a cheap shirt.
Collateral is the essential ingredient powering the creation of credit by western financial institutions, primarily the GSIB’s (Global Systemically Important Banks). They stand the most to gain if western powers prevail, and the most to lose if they’re defeated. Ukraine is the key piece of the Eurasian puzzle and it is certain that western banks have very substantial exposure there - only we don't know which ones or how extensively. Adverse developments in Ukraine could push the sector back into a bear market and the banks that are overexposed to Ukraine could exacerbate the financial crisis, force central banks to more bank bailouts with open-ended QE, and reignite another cycle of high inflation.
Wait. I somehow missed that you were able to import the old blogger entries into Substack. That’s fantastic! I’ve been reading Meaning In History since 2018 (originally for your church commentary) and was bummed that you had to leave your old stuff behind when you came here.
Germany sentences man to 3 years in prison for expressing support for Russia: "The defendant justified Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine on social media".
- Remember when people were sentenced to prison for supporting the US invasion of Iraq?
Absolutely terrible in both instances. So many of us have watched and appreciated Lira's reporting, whether agreeing with his views or not. Apparently our State Department will not protect citizens overseas if they don't agree with their views - a good lesson to learn. Also, I guess the importance of establishing "Democracy" in other countries doesn't include free speech (huh, who knew?)
I believe it's something like the "mirror test" that is used in recruiting Chinese - Americans. Look in the mirror--if you look Chinese, you are Chinese, so help your motherland. This world view is something that's not uncommon, but is foreign to us in America when expressed that way. It's related to the outlook of "archaic man" that I wrote about extensively in earlier days. Actually, we have something similar to that. We tend to believe that all people everywhere are basically just like us--so, you're with us or against us. It's our version of the mirror test--a mental mirror. Just no racial component. Simplification, but ...
To paraphrase the late, great and suicided Anthony Bourdain, if you went to Cambodia, you'd want to punch Kissinger repeatedly in the face. I did and I do. Also, to state that Kissinger warned us is somewhat disingenuous as he has been a driving force of the WEF/CIA and it's corporate/state fascist amalgam.
I'd add to that the question of how these people are still operating into their 90s and beyond - Soros, Buffet, Feinstein etc. What's keeping them going?
Kissinger is the classic neo-con/liberal which is essentially two sides of the same damn coin. How quick did he reverse himself on Ukraine just a few months ago?
Of course Kissinger’s views, based on experience, diplomacy, strategic and big picture thinking would make him persona non grata with the Neocons because they have no use or patience for any of those things. In his most recent book he makes a very clear point that a foreign policy based upon constantly provoking your adversaries is not helpful or productive so I would imagine that didn’t set to well with the geniuses running this dumpster fire in Ukraine.
You mentioned Lasch’s book Revolt of the Elites earlier this week, and I was taken by his assertions regarding who these people are and how they view the rest of the country, and by extension I think, the rest of the world. Clearly they not only look down their noses at those of us in flyover country but, an aspect in the Neocons/elites worldview I had not fully appreciated, actually hold everything we believe in in utter contempt. National pride,!honor, family, patriotism, fidelity to our founding documents and certainly anything that suggests a transcendent power that acts in the history of human being is actively despised and repudiated with a vengeance.
When viewed through this prisim, everything about these people and their actions that appear irrational, lawless, endlessly provocative and ultimately suicidal make more sense. They, as Lasch points out, live in a different world from the rest of us which does not give me a lot of hope for any kind of solution to our current dilemma. They control the levers of power, the political apparatus, the educational system, and the media, while we are left with a group of politicians who are for the most part a bunch of grandstanders gladly participating in the spectacle that passes for “representing the interests of the country and its people”.
We vote and they betray us and if our votes produce a result they don’t like, they just change the outcome.
It gets harder and harder to maintain a positive mental attitude.
No, It gets easier and easier to maintain a positive mental attitude. You wrote "Clearly they not only look down their noses at those of us in flyover country but, an aspect in the Neocons/elites worldview I had not fully appreciated, actually hold everything we believe in in utter contempt. National pride,!honor, family, patriotism, fidelity to our founding documents and certainly anything that suggests a transcendent power that acts in the history of human being is actively despised and repudiated with a vengeance." Nonetheless, we continue to believe in these things. They clearly do not represent us. They don't even try to, or make believe they do. They have the power of government. We have the power of Bartleby the Scrivener. We do not choose to participate.
I think the western populations are still experiencing an element of mass formation - I imagine such a formation becomes self feeding after a while; always searching for new fuel and thus it is so much easier for the psychopaths in charge to implement even more chaos.
Brainwashing by our media, large internet companies, and cultural figures will do that.
And if any individual or organization dare oppose or disagree, they will get attacked by a vicious minority of trans activists. For individuals this includes being doxed and you, and your spouse having your employer contacted. Or your business boycotted, attacked online, etc.
I remain hopeful the pendulum has begun swinging back. It will take a few years but ordinary folk everywhere have had a gutful of the crazy. Thinking about it, the same thing is happening on a global scale. It's turning out to be an interesting decade. As you say, - political mindfulness is the trick to surviving it.
They call it the “debt wall,” and it is not the kind of wall that protects you. It’s the kind that might collapse and crush your village, or into which you might crash your car. Specifically, it is $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt, owed to banks, pension funds, and insurance companies before the end of 2025, and secured by a national portfolio of office, retail, industrial, and multifamily properties that may not be worth what they were five or 10 years ago when those loans got made.
There is a bubble in cre due to the free money (zero interest rates), which enabled investments with no initial profit that forecast higher rents and/or higher valuations. And as a safe harbor from inflation.
The article focuses on office space, and retail in big cities. An issue not mentioned causing vacancies is crime. And over building in some areas.
Higher insurance rates I’ve heard are also impacting multi family. In So Ca there was some over building of luxury apartments, which were the only apartment type that could be built profitably. Lower class apartments just don’t make economic sense to build (class c and d).
Vanguard I heard for those trying to get money out of their ira, is now taking 45-60 days.
I saw yesterday that State Farm is no longer offering homeowner insurance in the state of CA. My understanding is that they cited CA policies in connection with wild fires, or something like that.
What an excellent article! So refreshing to read an author who knows what they are writing about, isn't trying to propagate a narrative, and doesn't engage in fear mongering or hysterics. IMO he is right that the CRE "crisis" will be largely limited to larger cities and office space. That doesn't mean there will be no effect on real estate in general or on REIT valuations in general. In the longer term we are looking at deflation in Real Estate overall, I think.
I do think the municipal taxes doom loop will be a real thing. What will happen to RE in these large urban areas almost seems like instances of "creative destruction." Lots of people see that as a necessary and unavoidable factor in the overall workings of capitalism. The disquieting thing about it in this case is that this situation was artificially caused by government (COVID-19 lockdowns, "free" money, and then rising interest rates) - just like the last real estate crisis was caused by the Feds forcing lenders to make unsafe residential loans. Thanks for the post, Mark!
There were a few notes of optimism w/in, at least to me -
Begin: What’s happening now is something like the opposite (note: of previous single family foreclosure crisis). For one thing, the owners who are defaulting on their commercial real estate loans in 2023 aren’t struggling mom ’n’ pops—they’re big, institutional investors. And the buyers, as Jim Costello, chief economist for real assets at the financial firm MSCI, explained on the Odd Lots podcast recently, aren’t big firms. They’re local buyers with appetite for tough projects and relationships with local land-use regulators. “The folks who have been buying these properties so far are local developer-operator-owner types,” he said. “It’s people who know how to swing a hammer.” (end)
Isn't this right in line w/what shd happen as dollar hegemony wanes? I think so, but what I think & $3-$5 might buy you a cuppa coffee these days. 😉
Unfortunately, the idiots running the show have a Titanic mentality. Too big to fail.
Don'tcha see, we're still afloat. Unsinkable. We idiots who aren't buying it have our eye on the lifeboats. Get debt free, have minimal needs and develop the skills needed to cope. The Country is going to hell in a handbasket. We ain't the Country.
How crooked are the NY Voter Rolls?
And is this true of all Blue Areas, resulting in even more radical Leftists being elected?
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1661839239967809547
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2023/05/25/catastrophic-loss-of-control-data-breach-in-ny-elections/
A screaming pack of sycophantic wolves brought to the teet and feudal... Usually. Or best medical money can buy or Hunter's Fear and Loathing adrenochrome... Or space aliens.
Speaking of losing, did you see Jay Valentine’s piece in AT today? Does not bode well for 2024.
Is anyone else as embarrassed by Lindsay Graham as I am? “Russian’s are dying…it’s the best money we’ve ever spent..”. Seriously?
And the budget deal appears to be the Republicans again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But hey, we’ll gettem next time, right? I believe the phrase is, “screwed, blued and tattooed”.
One thing for sure is that funding and praising of killing Russians gets you on the list.
I’m wondering what the reaction would have been had Putin said something similar.
What we've come to.
Very interesting thread on Russian Geran drone:
https://twitter.com/Lying_Troll/status/1662664672892399618
Rand Paul
@RandPaul
·
1h
Fake conservatives agree to fake spending cuts. Deal will increase mandatory spending ~5%, increase military spending ~3%, and maintain current non-military discretionary spending at post-COVID levels. No real cuts to see here.
Conservatives have been sold out once again!
Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch)
@TFL1728
·
29m
There is no reason for this 'deal' other than to not call @secyellen's bluff over the fake 6/5 x-date.
Draw this out to 6/15 when quarterly taxes start coming in. O'Biden will fold like a cheap shirt.
@SpeakerMcCarthy can pound sand!
All wars are bankers’ wars!
Collateral is the essential ingredient powering the creation of credit by western financial institutions, primarily the GSIB’s (Global Systemically Important Banks). They stand the most to gain if western powers prevail, and the most to lose if they’re defeated. Ukraine is the key piece of the Eurasian puzzle and it is certain that western banks have very substantial exposure there - only we don't know which ones or how extensively. Adverse developments in Ukraine could push the sector back into a bear market and the banks that are overexposed to Ukraine could exacerbate the financial crisis, force central banks to more bank bailouts with open-ended QE, and reignite another cycle of high inflation.
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/fed-hikes-quarter-point-still-expects
(skip to the end of the post)
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/great-game-20
Erdogan's win is a big defeat for globalists.
What will the Biden Administration do about Erdogen’s negative comments on lgbt?
Can they afford to do nothing?
Of course Irans even worse, and that’s ignored.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/may/12/lgbt-recep-tayyip-erdogan-targets-gay-trans-rights-critical-turkish-election
Erdogan doesn't like Christians much either. It will be interesting to see if the Biden admin has anything to say about that, too.
https://observer.com/2017/07/turkey-erdogan-christianity-church-seizures/
Atrocities and discrimination against Christians are ignored by the US Government worldwide. Islam is a favored religion, and lgbt a favored minority.
True, but then neither does the US government.
Another sign that countries are slowly but surely taking sides in Global War 1. The world is dividing.
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/grand-strategy-101
Wow--how do you find this stuff?
What I couldn’t find was your discussion of that old RAND report on the dismemberment and exploitation of Russia. Was that on the old blogger site?
No, not the old site. I know I've referenced the Rand report several times, as also the idea of dismembering Russia and looting it.
Wait. I somehow missed that you were able to import the old blogger entries into Substack. That’s fantastic! I’ve been reading Meaning In History since 2018 (originally for your church commentary) and was bummed that you had to leave your old stuff behind when you came here.
Yes, everything should be here. A reader/commenter helped me do that because I initially had trouble importing it all.
Searched the terms: “mackinder,” “heartland,” and “world island” in your Substack.
Glenn Diesen
@Glenn_Diesen
·
May 25
Germany sentences man to 3 years in prison for expressing support for Russia: "The defendant justified Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine on social media".
- Remember when people were sentenced to prison for supporting the US invasion of Iraq?
https://news.yahoo.com/supporter-russian-aggression-sentenced-three-160200534.html
Or what the uk police have been doing on online “hate speech”
I can’t find an example due to my search engine results being “massaged”. How 1984.
Or this:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12080887/A-Christian-teacher-55-urged-talk-beliefs-marriage-sacked-hate-speech.html
Or a U.S. Citizen, Gonzalo Lira, facing 13 prison in Ukraine:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-05-28/state-department-pleads-fifth-when-asked-about-american-detained-ukraine
Absolutely terrible in both instances. So many of us have watched and appreciated Lira's reporting, whether agreeing with his views or not. Apparently our State Department will not protect citizens overseas if they don't agree with their views - a good lesson to learn. Also, I guess the importance of establishing "Democracy" in other countries doesn't include free speech (huh, who knew?)
I’ve read and heard shocking stories of the us citizens in China and the judicial, especially if ethnic Chinese. US embassy is useless.
I believe it's something like the "mirror test" that is used in recruiting Chinese - Americans. Look in the mirror--if you look Chinese, you are Chinese, so help your motherland. This world view is something that's not uncommon, but is foreign to us in America when expressed that way. It's related to the outlook of "archaic man" that I wrote about extensively in earlier days. Actually, we have something similar to that. We tend to believe that all people everywhere are basically just like us--so, you're with us or against us. It's our version of the mirror test--a mental mirror. Just no racial component. Simplification, but ...
https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1662189453287251968
Another very good one, Putin speaking of cultural issues vis-a-vis the west:
https://twitter.com/robertsepehr/status/1661587348730290176
To paraphrase the late, great and suicided Anthony Bourdain, if you went to Cambodia, you'd want to punch Kissinger repeatedly in the face. I did and I do. Also, to state that Kissinger warned us is somewhat disingenuous as he has been a driving force of the WEF/CIA and it's corporate/state fascist amalgam.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/05/27/henry-kissinger-statesman-centenarian-war-criminal/
Not sure if this site is available to Americans. If not they have a Telegram channel that provides instant view option.
The only thing I want to know about Kissinger is which circle of hell he will be damned to... ;-)
I'd add to that the question of how these people are still operating into their 90s and beyond - Soros, Buffet, Feinstein etc. What's keeping them going?
True. He was there at the founding of the WEF, so to speak. What he was thinking at the time, I don't know. A globalist he has surely been.
Kissinger is the classic neo-con/liberal which is essentially two sides of the same damn coin. How quick did he reverse himself on Ukraine just a few months ago?
While American Slept. I think you’ve got a title for a great book.
Of course Kissinger’s views, based on experience, diplomacy, strategic and big picture thinking would make him persona non grata with the Neocons because they have no use or patience for any of those things. In his most recent book he makes a very clear point that a foreign policy based upon constantly provoking your adversaries is not helpful or productive so I would imagine that didn’t set to well with the geniuses running this dumpster fire in Ukraine.
You mentioned Lasch’s book Revolt of the Elites earlier this week, and I was taken by his assertions regarding who these people are and how they view the rest of the country, and by extension I think, the rest of the world. Clearly they not only look down their noses at those of us in flyover country but, an aspect in the Neocons/elites worldview I had not fully appreciated, actually hold everything we believe in in utter contempt. National pride,!honor, family, patriotism, fidelity to our founding documents and certainly anything that suggests a transcendent power that acts in the history of human being is actively despised and repudiated with a vengeance.
When viewed through this prisim, everything about these people and their actions that appear irrational, lawless, endlessly provocative and ultimately suicidal make more sense. They, as Lasch points out, live in a different world from the rest of us which does not give me a lot of hope for any kind of solution to our current dilemma. They control the levers of power, the political apparatus, the educational system, and the media, while we are left with a group of politicians who are for the most part a bunch of grandstanders gladly participating in the spectacle that passes for “representing the interests of the country and its people”.
We vote and they betray us and if our votes produce a result they don’t like, they just change the outcome.
It gets harder and harder to maintain a positive mental attitude.
No, It gets easier and easier to maintain a positive mental attitude. You wrote "Clearly they not only look down their noses at those of us in flyover country but, an aspect in the Neocons/elites worldview I had not fully appreciated, actually hold everything we believe in in utter contempt. National pride,!honor, family, patriotism, fidelity to our founding documents and certainly anything that suggests a transcendent power that acts in the history of human being is actively despised and repudiated with a vengeance." Nonetheless, we continue to believe in these things. They clearly do not represent us. They don't even try to, or make believe they do. They have the power of government. We have the power of Bartleby the Scrivener. We do not choose to participate.
And what happened to Bartleby? He died in prison.
I try to think as an observer of politics, where I’m not getting upset about the current horrible situation.
Political mindfulness?
It’s a challenge with all the unbelievable stuff going on. Bud light, target, dodgers snafu just boggle my mind. Crazy times.
I think the western populations are still experiencing an element of mass formation - I imagine such a formation becomes self feeding after a while; always searching for new fuel and thus it is so much easier for the psychopaths in charge to implement even more chaos.
Brainwashing by our media, large internet companies, and cultural figures will do that.
And if any individual or organization dare oppose or disagree, they will get attacked by a vicious minority of trans activists. For individuals this includes being doxed and you, and your spouse having your employer contacted. Or your business boycotted, attacked online, etc.
Remember Memories Pizza:
https://reason.com/2015/04/02/was-memories-pizza-a-victim-of-irrespons/
Or now trans can do airport pat downs:
https://twitter.com/AK4WA/status/1661707141571563521
I remain hopeful the pendulum has begun swinging back. It will take a few years but ordinary folk everywhere have had a gutful of the crazy. Thinking about it, the same thing is happening on a global scale. It's turning out to be an interesting decade. As you say, - political mindfulness is the trick to surviving it.
Speaking of crazy ...
On top of the craziness of our cities, this looms:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4156433/posts
The Ticking Time Bomb in America’s Downtowns
They call it the “debt wall,” and it is not the kind of wall that protects you. It’s the kind that might collapse and crush your village, or into which you might crash your car. Specifically, it is $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt, owed to banks, pension funds, and insurance companies before the end of 2025, and secured by a national portfolio of office, retail, industrial, and multifamily properties that may not be worth what they were five or 10 years ago when those loans got made.
There is a bubble in cre due to the free money (zero interest rates), which enabled investments with no initial profit that forecast higher rents and/or higher valuations. And as a safe harbor from inflation.
The article focuses on office space, and retail in big cities. An issue not mentioned causing vacancies is crime. And over building in some areas.
Higher insurance rates I’ve heard are also impacting multi family. In So Ca there was some over building of luxury apartments, which were the only apartment type that could be built profitably. Lower class apartments just don’t make economic sense to build (class c and d).
Vanguard I heard for those trying to get money out of their ira, is now taking 45-60 days.
Higher insurance rates ...
I saw yesterday that State Farm is no longer offering homeowner insurance in the state of CA. My understanding is that they cited CA policies in connection with wild fires, or something like that.
What an excellent article! So refreshing to read an author who knows what they are writing about, isn't trying to propagate a narrative, and doesn't engage in fear mongering or hysterics. IMO he is right that the CRE "crisis" will be largely limited to larger cities and office space. That doesn't mean there will be no effect on real estate in general or on REIT valuations in general. In the longer term we are looking at deflation in Real Estate overall, I think.
I do think the municipal taxes doom loop will be a real thing. What will happen to RE in these large urban areas almost seems like instances of "creative destruction." Lots of people see that as a necessary and unavoidable factor in the overall workings of capitalism. The disquieting thing about it in this case is that this situation was artificially caused by government (COVID-19 lockdowns, "free" money, and then rising interest rates) - just like the last real estate crisis was caused by the Feds forcing lenders to make unsafe residential loans. Thanks for the post, Mark!
Took a bit of searching, but I finally found the full article: https://slate.com/business/2023/05/downtown-real-estate-office-rent-vacancies-debt-commercial-reuse-conversions.html
There were a few notes of optimism w/in, at least to me -
Begin: What’s happening now is something like the opposite (note: of previous single family foreclosure crisis). For one thing, the owners who are defaulting on their commercial real estate loans in 2023 aren’t struggling mom ’n’ pops—they’re big, institutional investors. And the buyers, as Jim Costello, chief economist for real assets at the financial firm MSCI, explained on the Odd Lots podcast recently, aren’t big firms. They’re local buyers with appetite for tough projects and relationships with local land-use regulators. “The folks who have been buying these properties so far are local developer-operator-owner types,” he said. “It’s people who know how to swing a hammer.” (end)
Isn't this right in line w/what shd happen as dollar hegemony wanes? I think so, but what I think & $3-$5 might buy you a cuppa coffee these days. 😉
Unfortunately, the idiots running the show have a Titanic mentality. Too big to fail.
Don'tcha see, we're still afloat. Unsinkable. We idiots who aren't buying it have our eye on the lifeboats. Get debt free, have minimal needs and develop the skills needed to cope. The Country is going to hell in a handbasket. We ain't the Country.
In the past I've cited an international ranking of election freedom/fairness. The US gets ranked middle of the pack with Mexico.
Seems there’s video of the Az Maricopa voting machines being secretly updated, tested, and failing before Election Day:
https://twitter.com/KariLakeWarRoom/status/1662872148921434114?cxt=HHwWhIDS9Zfa2pMuAAAA
Details:
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2023/05/10/new-filing-in-kari-lake-election-integrity-case/