Great Game 2.0

Yeah, only this is no game. Already countless thousands of people have died or been seriously injured—that may be a conservative guesstimate—and many millions have been displaced. I go back to the US lying its way into invading Iraq under Dubya. At that time my contention was that Authorization for the Use Of Military Force (AUMF) wasn’t, in the big scheme of things, about Saddam. It was about a land military platform to control the flow of Central Asian gas to Europe and Iranian oil to the world. The goal was to circumvent Russian influence over the supply of gas to Europe. Fast forward a few decades and nothing has changed. The war of the collective West against Russia isn’t really about Ukraine, except to the extent that the Ukrainian population provides a handy source of cannon fodder that’s conveniently located in a strategically sensitive region for Russia. The war is still about controlling the flow of energy to Europe and preventing a more or less unified Eurasian landmass. All else is essentially peripheral. The various conflicts surrounding the Eurasian landmass, most instigated by the Anglosphere of the US/UK, are about 1) weakening Russia and China, and 2) creating enough turmoil to prevent the rise of an economic and strategic bloc that could challenge US hegemony.

The demonization of Putin, likewise, is about his success in countering the West’s relentless drive to control Russia and, ultimately, to dismember Russia in order to prevent the rise of a Eurasian bloc of nations independent of Western control. Obviously, the key constituent members of such a bloc would be Russia and China, with India an important adjunct. Other countries on the periphery of the Eurasian landmass, and some in its heartland play varying roles. Some on the periphery, like Iran, provide access to sea routes of transportation as well as rich energy resources. Others, like Turkey, provide key transit routes and choke points not only, like Iran, for seaborne transport but also for Central Asian energy to Europe.

Let’s take a look at some of the players on this chessboard.

The expansion of NATO to the Western borders of Russia serves no strategic military purpose in the traditional sense—of countering the threat of a Russian invasion. Russia is a major military power, but its ability to project its power is limited. An invasion of of Europe is absolutely out of the cards. However, expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders occupies Russia, focuses its attention away from the main goal of the West. Russia understands this strategy, but its continent sprawling landmass means it is difficult to respond in all directions.

Even better, Ukraine , if it had been successfully NATO-ized would have been a geographically key dagger pointing toward the Russian heartland, capable of blocking access to the Black Sea and guarding the transit of Central Asian energy across that sea. Putin saw that threat and understood that realized by 2014 that there was no way to safeguard Russian security except by reclaiming Crimea to its historical status as part of Russia proper.

Turkey, of course, is a NATO member and controls access to and from the Black Sea. It has also long been a strategic rival to both Russia and Iran in the Caucasus region, extending to the oil and gas rich Caspian region. Further, Turkey has ambitions leadership of the Pan Turkic movement—which encompasses essentially all of Central Asia, lying between Russia an China’s Xinjiang province:

This map, below, illustrates only those Turkic languages that are most closely related to the Turkish of Turkey proper, to the extent of being significantly mutually intelligible:

Please note several things.

First, Azerbaijani is the language of 30 million people, divided between Azerbaijan and Iran. Azerbaijan is, of course, energy rich and its Caspian port of Baku leads directly cross sea to oil and gas rich Turkmenistan.

Second, an Azerbaijan that is friendly to the West leads also directly to Georgia and provides energy transit across the Black Sea, bypassing Russian control. A Georgian NATO—and, never forget, NATO membership ultimately is all about a US military presence—was unacceptable to Russia. However, for the long run Azerbaijan could stand to profit enormously from friendly relations with Russia.

Third, complicating matters for Russia, Azerbaijan is said to be controlled by BP—meaning, there is an enormous UK presence, including intel. Is it coincidence that Azerbaijan has renewed hostilities with Armenia, at a time when the region appeared to be stable—but when Russia was deeply occupied in Ukraine?

Fourth, Putin has been assiduously courting Turkey’s Erdogan. Erdogan has defied NATO by purchasing Russian air defense systems—the world’s best. Putin is also mediating between Turkey and Syria, with what appears to be increasing success. Russian, Turkish, Iranian concord regarding Syria is a game changer for the Middle East, and specifically for the US role there. Putin has already developed significantly closer ties to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. With Russia’s new strategic partnership with Iran and Russia role in mediating between the mullahs and the Saudis, the Persian Gulf and adjacent areas could become a no go zone for the US Navy.

In other words, Turkey is a geopolitical linchpin. While always seeking to remain independent, Turkey has been rejected by the EU and stands to gain much from closer integration with the Shanghai Cooperation Operation, that held its annual summit in Samarkand.

Iran, of course, is strategically important both for its resources as well as simply for its location. It touches the southern boundaries of Central Asia and borders the Caucasus, Mesopotamia, and the Persian Gulf. It is a key part of the north - south transit corridor that ultimately stretches from India all the way up to Murmansk.

The US/UK Deep States have been active throughout Central Asia, and nowhere more so than in Kazakhstan. In fact, the unsuccessful coup attempt there, shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is generally believed to have been led by MI6. It was thwarted largely through quick action by Russia. One can well imagine the difficulties that Russia would have faced had that coup succeeded and Ukraine had then resumed its assault on the Donbass.

We’ll cut this short by skipping to China. China is a case unto itself, but it is very active in Central Asia, which provides transit to the West, as well as access to energy resources. At the same time, while closely linked geographically to the entire Eurasian landmass, China is also a Pacific country, facing the US—many thousands of miles away—but constrained by island chains that are dominated by the US Navy and Air Force. While it’s very easy to sympathize with China’s neighbors, from a geopolitical standpoint it’s also easy to understand that China—a proud and ancient civilization—can never have a commensurate role on the world stage such as it believes it deserves, as long as it is boxed in by the US. The US push to provoke tension in the region and to align other nations against China keeps China fully occupied—or so I imagine US strategists hope. Too occupied to play more of a supportive role with Russia.

Hopefully these ruminations will spur reflection. Keep an eye open for developments in these regions. The Samarkand summit of the SCO this past week was hugely important in countering the sputtering strategy of the collective West against Eurasian unity. All of this is happening without any input from We The People—the Deep State is calling the shots, but the long term consequences will affect all of us. Elections matter.