This is the best graphic I’ve seen for English speakers: Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics BREAKING: French far-right wins first round of parliamentary election - exit poll 1:13 PM · Jun 30, 2024 What it all means is anyone’s guess—except that people in France and lots of other places in the West are very unhappy. And deeply divided.
Regardless of whether these incidents are staged (etc), at least they retain their spontaneous street mobilizations to voice opinions without asking permission to assemble on public spaces. I think it's a cultural artifact worth preserving and it's emulation elsewhere isn't necessarily a bad thing.
The fear porn was that the RN (extreme right) would get over 40%, and maybe close to 50%.
The top line figure is an aggregate.
The way the system works, this was the first round. Any party getting above 12.5% can participate in the second round. The system is a variant of proportional representation with 577 total seats.
I'm reading that in the second round there will be 306 three way contests (only 7 in 2022) and 5 four way contests. 76 seats have already been won (39 for RN right and 32 for the new FP left, not sure other 5)
Also you can see an institutional MSM propa-jection for round two here:
My understanding is that the surge came (like in previous times, because it plays like a broken record), but the dying left (FP) got re-hype-inflated. It could have been worse for Macron's presidential togetherness majority (they got 20%), but I don't think there's any realistic resignation plot twists coming.
The traditional Republican Right (10%) is moribund and the basically extreme left doesn't really exist in any meaningful way.
What's more likely if this result more or less holds next Sunday?
Well the RN has never actually gotten above 40%, they've improved (not sure by how much, but probably single digits since 2022) and the current fear porn is a reheated meal, except that while before the Republicans (ex Sarkozy etc) have never endorsed Le Pen, this time there was an attempt by some of them to try to get a partnership and which led to an Asterix comics style pile-up fight within the party, because that's how the french also sometimes do things.
There's also a feeling that everyday this left FP Frankenstein lives is a miracle.
A +51% majority is needed for a prime minister. In the past there's plenty of examples of Presidents and Prime Ministers belonging to different political sides, because the french historically like interesting times in their political affairs.
It could be that Macron's move to call snap elections after the EU results might actually be seen in hindsight as a masterstroke gamble on the chessboard. It does strengthen his political "authoritativeness".
The next government will be a coalition between Macron and the left and it makes sense because his original powerbase draws from the left disillusionment and shambolic party squabbles during the Sarkozy years. So in one form or another, it could be said that it was important to bring back the bourgeois left intelligentsia under one roof. Keep the herd intact. A future coalition does weaken his hand. He'll cede control of the prime minister and internal portfolios to keep the treasury, foreign and defence portfolios.
But there's no reason for him to end his presidency early (I'm guessing the position of president will be up for election in a few years, it's on a separate schedule).
I don't think there's any mental space for a scenario involving narratives of political collaboration between the left and the RN "extreme right". And it's important to make sure it stays this way by Macron et al.
I haven't seen any french MSM reporting on post election rioting, so sporadic incidents of it happening could just be part of the psyop to reinforce the message.
I love how the Right are the "Far" Right, while the Left, who in reality are far more extreme are called the "Popular Front" or "radicals". Being near France, I hear this crap all the time. I don't doubt that there are some extremist nutjobs on the Le Pen side, but France is also the only country on the planet which still has politicians who proudly call themselves communists. Anyway, whatever the result, neither side will accept an opposition victory.
The Duran chaps addressed the question of why on Earth Macron called these disastrous elections. They believe that he is kicking over the chessboard because he didn't get his way. Like Sunak, he's a malignant narcissist who is angry that the people haven't recognised his genius and natural right to rule. They both want out and don't care how much debris they leave in their wake.
I don't think Macron's going anywhere for the foreseeable future. I think it's more likely there'll be a left FP + Macron coalition. This will eventually break down when the scale of the Ukraine fiasco gets known to the left intelligentsia who were enchanted by censorship industrial complex. We'll probably then have new elections. It's happening faster now. In the next cycle we might even get lucky enough to witness an 1968 style epoch defining reformation style restructuring of the left - liberal - center political blob or even a new republic. The french are very creative with interesting times.
Yep. Macron is not directly on the ticket. He might stay till 2027 or he might resign beforehand. Whatever happens, he's a dead duck. And agreed about the FP/Macron coalition. Anything to keep out those dreaded Extreme Far Righties!
Doesnt matter. Too late. France is not longer France. Elementary schools are majority African/middle eastern. Good part is Islam will have the armories, the nuclear armories and maybe Israel will play nicer.
What do you know about French politics, really? Left and center will join again to defeat “the spectre of far-right”. It’s been done before and will be done so every time. Le Pen family has been a lightning rod for discontent over two generations now, that’s how they make their living. Wait and watch.
Most outsiders don't realise how visceral French politics is. 1789 and the 1930s still cast their deep shadows over the political arena. The divide between Left and Right, revolution and reaction, is still enormous. The summer will be interesting to say the least. I'm off walking in France next week. I think I'll avoid the big cities and stick to a nice quiet rural area!
That's always the aim, and is why the elected Macron last time. However, that policy is wearing thin. It's like trying to batten down a pressure cooker.
I watched a large chunk of the Reform UK rally in Birmingham yesterday. Nigel was pretty impressive as was political newcomer, Zia Yusuf. They have the advantage of speaking the truth.
It seems in the US that a larger proportion of younger people are willing to someone speaking truth than are older people. At least leaning right. That seems to be the lesson of the alt media.
The French right wing comes with some baggage, but how can one not admire her and her party in the face of the global disaster Macron and the West are pushing us towards.
I wonder if the rioting in Paris will increase the vote for the Right in the second round?
And perhaps influence the UK elections?
Nice, France is quiet. Big police presence and I saw a group of 4 armed soldiers this morning on the main boulevard.
Links on rioting:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/07/anti-israel-and-far-left-mobs-terrorize-paris-after-marine-le-pens-party-wins-first-round-of-elections/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13587059/Protests-sweep-Paris-humiliated-Macron-DEFEATED-Le-Pens-National-Rally-election-round-Presidents-allies-say-far-right-stands-gates-power-seven-days-stop-catastrophe-ahead-second-round.html
Regardless of whether these incidents are staged (etc), at least they retain their spontaneous street mobilizations to voice opinions without asking permission to assemble on public spaces. I think it's a cultural artifact worth preserving and it's emulation elsewhere isn't necessarily a bad thing.
I was in Paris over the weekend visiting friends.
The fear porn was that the RN (extreme right) would get over 40%, and maybe close to 50%.
The top line figure is an aggregate.
The way the system works, this was the first round. Any party getting above 12.5% can participate in the second round. The system is a variant of proportional representation with 577 total seats.
I'm reading that in the second round there will be 306 three way contests (only 7 in 2022) and 5 four way contests. 76 seats have already been won (39 for RN right and 32 for the new FP left, not sure other 5)
Also you can see an institutional MSM propa-jection for round two here:
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240627-2024-french-legislative-elections-results-of-the-first-round
This week until next Sunday will be clown show.
My understanding is that the surge came (like in previous times, because it plays like a broken record), but the dying left (FP) got re-hype-inflated. It could have been worse for Macron's presidential togetherness majority (they got 20%), but I don't think there's any realistic resignation plot twists coming.
The traditional Republican Right (10%) is moribund and the basically extreme left doesn't really exist in any meaningful way.
What's more likely if this result more or less holds next Sunday?
Well the RN has never actually gotten above 40%, they've improved (not sure by how much, but probably single digits since 2022) and the current fear porn is a reheated meal, except that while before the Republicans (ex Sarkozy etc) have never endorsed Le Pen, this time there was an attempt by some of them to try to get a partnership and which led to an Asterix comics style pile-up fight within the party, because that's how the french also sometimes do things.
There's also a feeling that everyday this left FP Frankenstein lives is a miracle.
A +51% majority is needed for a prime minister. In the past there's plenty of examples of Presidents and Prime Ministers belonging to different political sides, because the french historically like interesting times in their political affairs.
Tx.
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html
Official results interior ministry
I did follow it closely enough to see about the Republican blow up. OTOH, it seems if they can come up with a coalition with FN ...
Last night got me thinking lol
It could be that Macron's move to call snap elections after the EU results might actually be seen in hindsight as a masterstroke gamble on the chessboard. It does strengthen his political "authoritativeness".
The next government will be a coalition between Macron and the left and it makes sense because his original powerbase draws from the left disillusionment and shambolic party squabbles during the Sarkozy years. So in one form or another, it could be said that it was important to bring back the bourgeois left intelligentsia under one roof. Keep the herd intact. A future coalition does weaken his hand. He'll cede control of the prime minister and internal portfolios to keep the treasury, foreign and defence portfolios.
But there's no reason for him to end his presidency early (I'm guessing the position of president will be up for election in a few years, it's on a separate schedule).
I don't think there's any mental space for a scenario involving narratives of political collaboration between the left and the RN "extreme right". And it's important to make sure it stays this way by Macron et al.
I haven't seen any french MSM reporting on post election rioting, so sporadic incidents of it happening could just be part of the psyop to reinforce the message.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240701-france-s-far-right-vote-in-figures
Nice graphic painting results of the three main parties on a map. Paris vs everything else.
I love how the Right are the "Far" Right, while the Left, who in reality are far more extreme are called the "Popular Front" or "radicals". Being near France, I hear this crap all the time. I don't doubt that there are some extremist nutjobs on the Le Pen side, but France is also the only country on the planet which still has politicians who proudly call themselves communists. Anyway, whatever the result, neither side will accept an opposition victory.
The Duran chaps addressed the question of why on Earth Macron called these disastrous elections. They believe that he is kicking over the chessboard because he didn't get his way. Like Sunak, he's a malignant narcissist who is angry that the people haven't recognised his genius and natural right to rule. They both want out and don't care how much debris they leave in their wake.
I don't think Macron's going anywhere for the foreseeable future. I think it's more likely there'll be a left FP + Macron coalition. This will eventually break down when the scale of the Ukraine fiasco gets known to the left intelligentsia who were enchanted by censorship industrial complex. We'll probably then have new elections. It's happening faster now. In the next cycle we might even get lucky enough to witness an 1968 style epoch defining reformation style restructuring of the left - liberal - center political blob or even a new republic. The french are very creative with interesting times.
Yep. Macron is not directly on the ticket. He might stay till 2027 or he might resign beforehand. Whatever happens, he's a dead duck. And agreed about the FP/Macron coalition. Anything to keep out those dreaded Extreme Far Righties!
Given Le Pen is an ardent supporter of Israel I’m sure she’ll happily take Gaza refugees.
Doesnt matter. Too late. France is not longer France. Elementary schools are majority African/middle eastern. Good part is Islam will have the armories, the nuclear armories and maybe Israel will play nicer.
At this point in history, does it even matter anymore what the people want?
It doesn't seem so.
Best news out of France since the liberation of Paris in 1944! Guess the French want to stay French after all!!
Let the revolution spread throughout Europe and America!!
Well, Paris in its current shape is not worth a mass, for sure.
Record turnout.
What do you know about French politics, really? Left and center will join again to defeat “the spectre of far-right”. It’s been done before and will be done so every time. Le Pen family has been a lightning rod for discontent over two generations now, that’s how they make their living. Wait and watch.
Most outsiders don't realise how visceral French politics is. 1789 and the 1930s still cast their deep shadows over the political arena. The divide between Left and Right, revolution and reaction, is still enormous. The summer will be interesting to say the least. I'm off walking in France next week. I think I'll avoid the big cities and stick to a nice quiet rural area!
That's always the aim, and is why the elected Macron last time. However, that policy is wearing thin. It's like trying to batten down a pressure cooker.
But...regardless of whether LePen can find a parliamentary majority, it looks like a knock out blow inflicted on Macron.
Yep. As in the UK, the conservatives are going to be destroyed because they failed in their central purpose: to conserve things
I watched a large chunk of the Reform UK rally in Birmingham yesterday. Nigel was pretty impressive as was political newcomer, Zia Yusuf. They have the advantage of speaking the truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6zEtbVe-ds&t=3692s
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd11xxn833yo
It seems in the US that a larger proportion of younger people are willing to someone speaking truth than are older people. At least leaning right. That seems to be the lesson of the alt media.
I didn't predict a Le Pen win and I'm not a particular fan of her.
The French right wing comes with some baggage, but how can one not admire her and her party in the face of the global disaster Macron and the West are pushing us towards.
Then it will be business as usual.
I'm willing to wait and see. I certainly don't expect some major turnaround. I'd be satisfied with less support for war.
This looks like an informed discussion--all very complicated. Odds on for a hung parliament.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/laissez-les-bons-temps-rouler-globalist-french-president/
Macron redefines French Toast.
Long time coming!