This is the best graphic I’ve seen for English speakers:
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
BREAKING:
French far-right wins first round of parliamentary election - exit poll
What it all means is anyone’s guess—except that people in France and lots of other places in the West are very unhappy. And deeply divided.
Here’s Breitbart, but I have no way to assess this. As the article states, these are exit polls from the first round. They’re significant, but it will be a while yet before actual seats held can be determined:
Macron Wipeout in Snap Election he Called, Le Pen Surges and Could Take Outright Majority
Breitbart ^ | 06/30/2024 | Oliver JJ. LaneThe Parliamentary faction of President Emmanuel Macron has been utterly destroyed in the unexpected snap election he called just three weeks ago, with Le Pen’s Party looking to nearly treble its seat holding.
Polling has closed in France for the first round of this week-long Parliamentary election. While actual seat distribution won’t be fully known, the exit polls following this knock-out round have given a confident answer that Marine Le Pen’s nationalist-populist National Rally (RN) won the day. Per the exit polls, her faction gained 34 per cent of the vote, while the left-wing coalition founded for the purpose of this election picked up 29 per cent, and President Macron’s Ensemble looks at just 20 per cent.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
It’s possible that this disaster could force Macron to resign but, whatever the outcome, it looks like a blow to the establishment—the country is looking for new leadership.
I wonder if the rioting in Paris will increase the vote for the Right in the second round?
And perhaps influence the UK elections?
Nice, France is quiet. Big police presence and I saw a group of 4 armed soldiers this morning on the main boulevard.
Links on rioting:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/07/anti-israel-and-far-left-mobs-terrorize-paris-after-marine-le-pens-party-wins-first-round-of-elections/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13587059/Protests-sweep-Paris-humiliated-Macron-DEFEATED-Le-Pens-National-Rally-election-round-Presidents-allies-say-far-right-stands-gates-power-seven-days-stop-catastrophe-ahead-second-round.html
I was in Paris over the weekend visiting friends.
The fear porn was that the RN (extreme right) would get over 40%, and maybe close to 50%.
The top line figure is an aggregate.
The way the system works, this was the first round. Any party getting above 12.5% can participate in the second round. The system is a variant of proportional representation with 577 total seats.
I'm reading that in the second round there will be 306 three way contests (only 7 in 2022) and 5 four way contests. 76 seats have already been won (39 for RN right and 32 for the new FP left, not sure other 5)
Also you can see an institutional MSM propa-jection for round two here:
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240627-2024-french-legislative-elections-results-of-the-first-round
This week until next Sunday will be clown show.
My understanding is that the surge came (like in previous times, because it plays like a broken record), but the dying left (FP) got re-hype-inflated. It could have been worse for Macron's presidential togetherness majority (they got 20%), but I don't think there's any realistic resignation plot twists coming.
The traditional Republican Right (10%) is moribund and the basically extreme left doesn't really exist in any meaningful way.
What's more likely if this result more or less holds next Sunday?
Well the RN has never actually gotten above 40%, they've improved (not sure by how much, but probably single digits since 2022) and the current fear porn is a reheated meal, except that while before the Republicans (ex Sarkozy etc) have never endorsed Le Pen, this time there was an attempt by some of them to try to get a partnership and which led to an Asterix comics style pile-up fight within the party, because that's how the french also sometimes do things.
There's also a feeling that everyday this left FP Frankenstein lives is a miracle.
A +51% majority is needed for a prime minister. In the past there's plenty of examples of Presidents and Prime Ministers belonging to different political sides, because the french historically like interesting times in their political affairs.