In the past I’ve written at some length about the International North–South Transport Corridor, which would provide a sea - rail links stretching from Mumbai to St.
The US diversion of resources to overseas adventuring that were best utilized in securing and defending its own hemisphere, is already resulting in serious consequences. I'd very much like to know your thoughts about this and what the implications are in the context of Eurasian trade restructuring.
Putin's a strategic thinker and the Danube has probably played a role in Russian thinking for a while. In particular, it probably explains the intensity of fighting over Snake Island last year. After territorial control of the Danube mouth itself, Snake Island and the largest nearby port, Odessa, are the most important elements for controlling entry and exit from the Danube.
It also raises an intriguing possibility. Russia is clearly trying to unite Russian-speaking areas, which include Odessa and Transnistria. Southern Bessarabia (aka Budjak) is the coastal part of Bessarabia, the USSR separated it from what is now Moldova in WWII. If Russia were to offer Budjak to Moldova in exchange for Transnistria, could Moldova say no? They would gain in territorial terms and having a coast would help a lot in alleviating the grinding poverty in the country. We already know Odessa is in Russia's sights, it is an historically Russian city with a large Russian population. If Odessa falls to Russia, Budjak and Snake Island become indefensible for Ukraine. If Moldova took the deal, it would move closer to Russia and away from the EU, and with Odessa and Snake Island, Russia would have effective control of the Danube's mouth, allowing it to extert a lot of pressure over Eastern Europe in aid of its efforts to change the political situation there.
There are a lot of what-ifs in play. The history behind it goes back much further than WW2. Few Americans have heard of these places and their historical connections to Russia, but Russians like Putin do.
The rail links through China are already built or being built sometime in the near future goods will be able to be shipped for the far east to Europe over a land route. Also, there have been talks about a tunnel connecting the Bering Straits which will connect North America to the land network. The City of London have fought this for centuries as they controlled the choke points for worldwide shipping thus they had the color revolution in Russia in 1914 (I may be wrong on the year) was a British operation to stop Russia form completing the overland route.
Eventually this will be true, but it will take a while. I expect other issues sooner will cause more crises in the EU threatening its survival.
In the short term Iran will keep Improving its leg if the North South Corridor, especially adding new rail lines. Russia has a huge incentive as a way to bypass Europe.
That Ukrainian territory is in the map of probably not taken by Russia if I remember correctly, but if there is a large ethnic Hungarian population perhaps that changes the map?
Looking at languages of Ukraine, perhaps Russia will annex a Southern Corridor to Hungary? Cutting off Ukraine even more.
Thank you for giving context to Alex Krainer’s excellent post! It's fascinating watching all this unfold. I feel sorry for my German relatives, who are all in complete denial about what is happening. The husband of one cousin votes for AfD and she accepts they have different political views, but the rest of the family judges him harshly for this.
True. Unfortunately, that pretty much applies to most of us living in the West. Trudeau certainly doesn't have my or other Canadians' interests at heart.
Thanks for the rec, I'll have to check it out sometime. (Right now, keeping up with current events is exhausting and distressing, so at the moment I am reading books exclusively for escapism.)
The US diversion of resources to overseas adventuring that were best utilized in securing and defending its own hemisphere, is already resulting in serious consequences. I'd very much like to know your thoughts about this and what the implications are in the context of Eurasian trade restructuring.
Nice River Cruise along the Danube from Vienna to the Black Sea, except it bypasses the Ukraine border. My guess using a canal.
https://www.vikingrivercruises.com/cruise-destinations/europe/capitals-of-eastern-europe/2024-vienna-bucharest/index.html
Putin's a strategic thinker and the Danube has probably played a role in Russian thinking for a while. In particular, it probably explains the intensity of fighting over Snake Island last year. After territorial control of the Danube mouth itself, Snake Island and the largest nearby port, Odessa, are the most important elements for controlling entry and exit from the Danube.
It also raises an intriguing possibility. Russia is clearly trying to unite Russian-speaking areas, which include Odessa and Transnistria. Southern Bessarabia (aka Budjak) is the coastal part of Bessarabia, the USSR separated it from what is now Moldova in WWII. If Russia were to offer Budjak to Moldova in exchange for Transnistria, could Moldova say no? They would gain in territorial terms and having a coast would help a lot in alleviating the grinding poverty in the country. We already know Odessa is in Russia's sights, it is an historically Russian city with a large Russian population. If Odessa falls to Russia, Budjak and Snake Island become indefensible for Ukraine. If Moldova took the deal, it would move closer to Russia and away from the EU, and with Odessa and Snake Island, Russia would have effective control of the Danube's mouth, allowing it to extert a lot of pressure over Eastern Europe in aid of its efforts to change the political situation there.
There are a lot of what-ifs in play. The history behind it goes back much further than WW2. Few Americans have heard of these places and their historical connections to Russia, but Russians like Putin do.
Sounds like opportunity for USA if you ask me.
The rail links through China are already built or being built sometime in the near future goods will be able to be shipped for the far east to Europe over a land route. Also, there have been talks about a tunnel connecting the Bering Straits which will connect North America to the land network. The City of London have fought this for centuries as they controlled the choke points for worldwide shipping thus they had the color revolution in Russia in 1914 (I may be wrong on the year) was a British operation to stop Russia form completing the overland route.
Eventually this will be true, but it will take a while. I expect other issues sooner will cause more crises in the EU threatening its survival.
In the short term Iran will keep Improving its leg if the North South Corridor, especially adding new rail lines. Russia has a huge incentive as a way to bypass Europe.
And Hungary borders Ukraine.
The territory formerly known as Ukraine!
And Serbia borders Hungary.
Gets interesting.
That Ukrainian territory is in the map of probably not taken by Russia if I remember correctly, but if there is a large ethnic Hungarian population perhaps that changes the map?
Looking at languages of Ukraine, perhaps Russia will annex a Southern Corridor to Hungary? Cutting off Ukraine even more.
https://www.monomakhos.com/interesting-times-in-ukraine/
New substack:
https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine?r=6o004
Thank you for giving context to Alex Krainer’s excellent post! It's fascinating watching all this unfold. I feel sorry for my German relatives, who are all in complete denial about what is happening. The husband of one cousin votes for AfD and she accepts they have different political views, but the rest of the family judges him harshly for this.
Germans seem to be in one of those classic abusive relationships you hear about.
True. Unfortunately, that pretty much applies to most of us living in the West. Trudeau certainly doesn't have my or other Canadians' interests at heart.
Yes, and still engulfed in masochistic guilt from World War Two. Self-abasement doesn't even begin to explain it.
Would “suicidal” do?
Indeed it would, ML.
Thanks for the rec, I'll have to check it out sometime. (Right now, keeping up with current events is exhausting and distressing, so at the moment I am reading books exclusively for escapism.)
A defensible position. Before I go to bed I indulge in that myself.
That's why I love Agatha Christie novels: not emoting and narcissism, just good solid characters and morals. Makes me feel safe!
Sleeping Murder is my favorite. Written in the 30s, she withheld it from pub until after her death.
Haven't heard of that one. My daughters have stockpiled dozens of AC books and I'm working my way through them. Very relaxing!
Yep.
I like and reread Jim Corbett's man-eater books, Giovanni Guareschi's Don Camillo stories, Jane Austen and Anthony Trollope for feel good.
Couple of things are driving the US and European Ukraine Policy:
1. Greed / Corruption, and fear of this being exposed
2. Anti Russian Hatred
3. Hubris
4. Pro Woke Jihad
5. American Hegemony- destroy all competitors
6. Using Ukraine as an emergency to restructure the European Economy away from cheap Russian Energy
7. Protect the US Dollar as the Worlds Reserve Currency
Yep - I’m just not cynical enough.
And also distract from the Wests COVID’s response failures.
It seems so 1984 with a 2 minutes of hate. 1984 was not supposed to be an instruction manual, as instapundit has quipped.