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Claudia's avatar

Thank you for giving context to Alex Krainer’s excellent post! It's fascinating watching all this unfold. I feel sorry for my German relatives, who are all in complete denial about what is happening. The husband of one cousin votes for AfD and she accepts they have different political views, but the rest of the family judges him harshly for this.

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TO's avatar

Putin's a strategic thinker and the Danube has probably played a role in Russian thinking for a while. In particular, it probably explains the intensity of fighting over Snake Island last year. After territorial control of the Danube mouth itself, Snake Island and the largest nearby port, Odessa, are the most important elements for controlling entry and exit from the Danube.

It also raises an intriguing possibility. Russia is clearly trying to unite Russian-speaking areas, which include Odessa and Transnistria. Southern Bessarabia (aka Budjak) is the coastal part of Bessarabia, the USSR separated it from what is now Moldova in WWII. If Russia were to offer Budjak to Moldova in exchange for Transnistria, could Moldova say no? They would gain in territorial terms and having a coast would help a lot in alleviating the grinding poverty in the country. We already know Odessa is in Russia's sights, it is an historically Russian city with a large Russian population. If Odessa falls to Russia, Budjak and Snake Island become indefensible for Ukraine. If Moldova took the deal, it would move closer to Russia and away from the EU, and with Odessa and Snake Island, Russia would have effective control of the Danube's mouth, allowing it to extert a lot of pressure over Eastern Europe in aid of its efforts to change the political situation there.

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