This afternoon Doug Macgregor published a new article at American Conservative. I was struck with a contrast in Macgregor’s article with a common view held by many other commentators on the Ukraine conflict. It’s common to encounter the view that, in the initial drive toward Kiev, Putin simply screwed up. He committed too few men for the task at hand and underestimated the Ukrainians. Macgregor’s version of this is interesting, although I think Mearsheimer’s current view is an improvement. Here’s the link:
I respect both commentators, so it's hard to see who's more correct. I'm not sure about the Poles. Sure, the majority of Polish people, and some officers who probably don't care too much about promotion, might be against intervention. But since when has that stopped neocon leaders from committing their nations to stupid wars?
Mearsheimer must have been picked up on somewhere along the line in Russian media or punditry (would stand to reason, as he was probably the earliest Western critic of America's role in Maidan), because, every time one of my friends or former colleagues over there (from different places and contexts, so they're not just singing from the same sheet) sends around a piece explaining the complexities of the situation to those of us in the West, it's Mearsheimer. While I sometimes think M doesn't go far enough, his softening of the rougher edges is probably a good thing in terms of winning over those with even a sliver of an open mind.
Mark, FYI. I took out an annual paid subscription a couple of weeks ago, and it never hit my CC. Thought you should know and had no other way of letting you know besides comments....
Ah, that's because I've never enabled payments of voluntary pledges, so you're not alone. I can't really explain why I haven't accepted the voluntary donations. Maybe it's because I don't want anyone to think I've staked out a position to please a constituency that pays me. I don't really know my own mind on that. As of this morning--I just checked--there are 62 pledges totaling ~$5300. I really do appreciate the intended support. Kinda funny. I didn't know how to check those numbers until yesterday. I had my grandson sitting on my lap (4 yr old) and he loves to have me navigate the Dashboard settings, and came across that page. It doesn't pop on the regular subscriber list.
I also made a pledge, but I never saw it hit my account. Thanks for updating us on this. I don’t feel I am paying you as much as I wanted to assure the great info you provide keeps flowing. Based on the many compliments from your readers you are providing an essential service that benefits us all, except perhaps Darek, he seems perturbed we are not beating up on Putin and blaming him for this mess the West is in. 🤦♂️
The catastrophic losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are announced: on average, 400 obituaries of Ukrainian soldiers are published per day
"A lot of soldiers die in Ukraine. On average, about 400 obituaries a day. November last year was the peak. About 1,100 obituaries for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were published there in one day. In total, I counted 284,000 dead," the military expert said. Ruslan Tatarinov.
The expert obtained these data from obituaries published in the Ukrainian media and social networks: "It was enough to combine these sources. Everything is clearly visible at once."
If you think about this a bit, I think you'll see that this is all about ideology and the normalization of the concept of trans-humanism far more generally.
It's amazing to see them doubling down. Maybe they haven't heard about Disney, Bud, Target, Gillette and all the others who got stomped by going Woke. Incredible.
I feel constrained to again add my perspective, stated here in the (recent) past, that regardless of whether Ukraine has any realistic chance of victory on the battlefield (it doesn't), this war is likely to go on.
For one, Biden and his neocons, and Britain and MI6, and Stoltenberg and the NATO blob are all so heavily invested in it that they can't stop. Whether you call it existential or not, the larger goal is still to inflict pain on Russia and as long as American boys are not dying and the US Treasury printing press is functional and American MIC is receiving Congressional appropriations, this war will go on. Since when have Ukrainian casualties figured into the equation?
While I acknowledge there is risk that the war will get out of control as it continues (I believe both Mearsheimer and Macgregor would agree) with Ukrainian hotheads droning Moscow and/or Poles seeing opportunity in Western Ukraine and/or senile Biden having a truly delusional 'push the button' moment, I think it far more likely that the war will be contained in Ukraine. It is the West's 'war of attrition' on arch-enemy Russia.
For two, there is not (as yet) any meaningful opposition to this war in DC. I know some here have suggested that there is growing grassroots opposition...and/or that there are polls showing increasing opposition. I acknowledge that Trump has said he would end it and that RFK's supporters seem to agree with his opposition. But...but...the Uniparty overall is seeing no meaningful opposition to its Congressional appropriations which (my impression is) pass in both houses with substantial bipartisan majorities. As long as the 'money' is there, why will it stop? Since when have Americans objected to the Uniparty's Endless War? Does anyone foresee opposition to Ukraine becoming a major election issue in 2024?
There is of course the issue which has been raised of the Ukraine military effort simply breaking down and finally collapsing on the ground. If the grossly disproportionate exchange ratio is as terrible as many observers believe one does have to wonder how much longer Ukrainian soldiers will continue to march forward into certain death. This may be our best hope for an end to this horrible war.
I'm sure the neocons will try and string it out for as long as possible. This is, after all, part of a much broader fight to the death. However, an overwhelming Russian victory in Ukraine will limit what further action the neocons can take. I would think the Russians could probably handle a few years of occasional drone strikes and terrorist acts if Ukraine is neutralised.
Mearsheimer appears to now be accepting the grossly disproportionate exchange ratio, and I believe that that realization is what has him tempering his previous position to some degree.
As am I...Gen. Douglas MacArthur is my 5th cousin, 1x removed. We are both descended from Jonathan Barney, born in 1703 in Swansea, Massachusetts. Jonathan's earliest American ancestor is Jacob Barney, my 8th Great Grandfather, who is thought to have sailed from England to America on the ship Lyon, which arrived in Salem, Massachusetts Bay Colony, in 1630, although no passenger list has survived. In addition to the General and me there are tens of thousands of Jacob Barney's descendants in the US today. I wonder if Douglas Macgregor is one of them, too... :-)
My Father had what they used to say back then a "good war." He was the head of MacArthur's motor pool and spent the war in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. He saw no action until he met my Mother...;o) He married my Aussie mother and my eldest sister was born there and the two of them followed dad home well after the war due to issues with immigration. How different from today! Mac was highly regarded and Dad had nothing but good things to say about him.
Russia seems to be increasing its military’s ability and strength with increased modern weapons availability for its military. From missiles, ECM, missile / drone defenses, drones, tanks, artillery, etc. all the while getting valuable battlefield experience and adapting to the conflict.
Ukraine is getting weaker every day due an unsustainable casualty rate, destruction of military hardware, and lack of ammunition. And the West due to de-industrialization can’t replenish all the military hardware that has been destroyed, from stocks that were minimal to begin with.
Russia’s strategy of slowly grinding through Ukrainian forces is working, why should they change?
I saw that horrendous video about a month ago of those poor buggers trapped in a Russian minefield. I was wondering just today how the man is getting on who managed to apply a tourniquet and clamber back into the APC. I hope he survived.
I see you are trying to be the controlling opposition here. Most of us have heard your propaganda for decades. We were more ignorant then or it was better disguised than it is now, or both.
But we have watched what is wrong in D.C. stagnate and continue to get worse for generations. We can't protect our own borders, but we can help Ukraine protect hers? BS! Regurgitating MSM talking points is not going to get you agreement here. We are seeking truth, not political lies. If you want agreement, go hang out with the Washington Post crowd, or the Huffington Post crowd, or CNN's (former) crowd, etc. You know where to go - where you agree with them and they agree with you, and you can hang out there and be happy. If you do stick around here, read and try to understand how we see things. You might find yourself coming into agreement with at least some of our considered POV's. And if not, so be it.
It is clear that Russia invaded Ukraine. The murk begins with sorting out why. The Origins of War are always hidden in the mist and require great efforts by great historical to sort out. Achieving clarity will take decades assuming access to archives and interviews of participants. Is it true that we supported Ukraine’s artillery attacks on ethnically Russian people over the last 6-8 years in Eastern Ukraine? Was Putin’s hand forced by the possibility of our nuclear weapons minutes from his nuclear deterrent? Or was he just feeling jaunty one day and decided to have a war? This is decades in the making and as the old guard died off the neocons continued to push against Russia. Why choose the route of conflict with Russia? Why not attempt to bring Russia into the fold and build commerce? Was an honest approach ever tried or has it always been about domination and exploitation? Was Russia thought a defeated enemy? At the end of the Cold War was there a Marshall Plan as after WW2 or a punitive/exploitative approach as after WW1? We need them to help balance China but have forced them toward China. Is this the behavior of a commercial republic or an empire? What is the nature of our current regime? Has is needlessly sacrificed hundreds of Ukrainians in a futile war? From a moral perspective does all of this killing warrant the goals discussed? Has our leadership been demoralized and made nihilistic? If so what does this mean for us? Is it possible for Ukraine to achieve stated goals (reclaim Crimea) with inadequate material support? Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons, tactical and strategic. Ukraine was never going to win. One goal was to damage Russia? Rubble the Ruble? Was this ever realistic? What did our leadership not know? Is our intelligence this bad or did they ignore it? Russia appears stronger domestically and internationally with China supplying them a lot of war materiel. We appear weaker with inadequate defense manufacturing. Was this thought through?
Almost all news is opinion these days and the opinion starts with what news stories to discuss. Please provide examples of things that are propaganda on this substack. It seems it is meant as a counter to mainstream news where MacGregor, Mearshimer and other like them are not heard. Given the censorship that has taken place over the last few years alternatives where Mearshimer and others like him can be heard is needed. This is war with Russia, a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons and a large military industrial base. This should be debated in Congress in a serious way. Is that happening? If it was we would not be here at this Substack. Please provide other Substack that are free of propaganda, opinion and speculation that we can look at.
I respect both commentators, so it's hard to see who's more correct. I'm not sure about the Poles. Sure, the majority of Polish people, and some officers who probably don't care too much about promotion, might be against intervention. But since when has that stopped neocon leaders from committing their nations to stupid wars?
Mearsheimer must have been picked up on somewhere along the line in Russian media or punditry (would stand to reason, as he was probably the earliest Western critic of America's role in Maidan), because, every time one of my friends or former colleagues over there (from different places and contexts, so they're not just singing from the same sheet) sends around a piece explaining the complexities of the situation to those of us in the West, it's Mearsheimer. While I sometimes think M doesn't go far enough, his softening of the rougher edges is probably a good thing in terms of winning over those with even a sliver of an open mind.
Mark, FYI. I took out an annual paid subscription a couple of weeks ago, and it never hit my CC. Thought you should know and had no other way of letting you know besides comments....
TG
Ah, that's because I've never enabled payments of voluntary pledges, so you're not alone. I can't really explain why I haven't accepted the voluntary donations. Maybe it's because I don't want anyone to think I've staked out a position to please a constituency that pays me. I don't really know my own mind on that. As of this morning--I just checked--there are 62 pledges totaling ~$5300. I really do appreciate the intended support. Kinda funny. I didn't know how to check those numbers until yesterday. I had my grandson sitting on my lap (4 yr old) and he loves to have me navigate the Dashboard settings, and came across that page. It doesn't pop on the regular subscriber list.
I also made a pledge, but I never saw it hit my account. Thanks for updating us on this. I don’t feel I am paying you as much as I wanted to assure the great info you provide keeps flowing. Based on the many compliments from your readers you are providing an essential service that benefits us all, except perhaps Darek, he seems perturbed we are not beating up on Putin and blaming him for this mess the West is in. 🤦♂️
Spriter Team
@SpriterTeam
The catastrophic losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are announced: on average, 400 obituaries of Ukrainian soldiers are published per day
"A lot of soldiers die in Ukraine. On average, about 400 obituaries a day. November last year was the peak. About 1,100 obituaries for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were published there in one day. In total, I counted 284,000 dead," the military expert said. Ruslan Tatarinov.
The expert obtained these data from obituaries published in the Ukrainian media and social networks: "It was enough to combine these sources. Everything is clearly visible at once."
4:50 PM · Aug 1, 2023
https://www.foxnews.com/media/popular-coffee-brand-outrages-consumers-image-post-op-trans-man-glorification-breast-mutilation
If you think about this a bit, I think you'll see that this is all about ideology and the normalization of the concept of trans-humanism far more generally.
It's amazing to see them doubling down. Maybe they haven't heard about Disney, Bud, Target, Gillette and all the others who got stomped by going Woke. Incredible.
I feel constrained to again add my perspective, stated here in the (recent) past, that regardless of whether Ukraine has any realistic chance of victory on the battlefield (it doesn't), this war is likely to go on.
For one, Biden and his neocons, and Britain and MI6, and Stoltenberg and the NATO blob are all so heavily invested in it that they can't stop. Whether you call it existential or not, the larger goal is still to inflict pain on Russia and as long as American boys are not dying and the US Treasury printing press is functional and American MIC is receiving Congressional appropriations, this war will go on. Since when have Ukrainian casualties figured into the equation?
While I acknowledge there is risk that the war will get out of control as it continues (I believe both Mearsheimer and Macgregor would agree) with Ukrainian hotheads droning Moscow and/or Poles seeing opportunity in Western Ukraine and/or senile Biden having a truly delusional 'push the button' moment, I think it far more likely that the war will be contained in Ukraine. It is the West's 'war of attrition' on arch-enemy Russia.
For two, there is not (as yet) any meaningful opposition to this war in DC. I know some here have suggested that there is growing grassroots opposition...and/or that there are polls showing increasing opposition. I acknowledge that Trump has said he would end it and that RFK's supporters seem to agree with his opposition. But...but...the Uniparty overall is seeing no meaningful opposition to its Congressional appropriations which (my impression is) pass in both houses with substantial bipartisan majorities. As long as the 'money' is there, why will it stop? Since when have Americans objected to the Uniparty's Endless War? Does anyone foresee opposition to Ukraine becoming a major election issue in 2024?
There is of course the issue which has been raised of the Ukraine military effort simply breaking down and finally collapsing on the ground. If the grossly disproportionate exchange ratio is as terrible as many observers believe one does have to wonder how much longer Ukrainian soldiers will continue to march forward into certain death. This may be our best hope for an end to this horrible war.
I'm sure the neocons will try and string it out for as long as possible. This is, after all, part of a much broader fight to the death. However, an overwhelming Russian victory in Ukraine will limit what further action the neocons can take. I would think the Russians could probably handle a few years of occasional drone strikes and terrorist acts if Ukraine is neutralised.
Mearsheimer appears to now be accepting the grossly disproportionate exchange ratio, and I believe that that realization is what has him tempering his previous position to some degree.
I believe you meant Douglas MacArthur in the first paragraph.
Yes. I corrected it, but that's only online.
I'm always confusing Douglas MacArthur with Douglas MacGregor! One was a great soldier.
Also in 2d paragraph...not yet corrected...
Thanks, got it. BTW, I believe Macg has said that he's distantly related to McA.
As am I...Gen. Douglas MacArthur is my 5th cousin, 1x removed. We are both descended from Jonathan Barney, born in 1703 in Swansea, Massachusetts. Jonathan's earliest American ancestor is Jacob Barney, my 8th Great Grandfather, who is thought to have sailed from England to America on the ship Lyon, which arrived in Salem, Massachusetts Bay Colony, in 1630, although no passenger list has survived. In addition to the General and me there are tens of thousands of Jacob Barney's descendants in the US today. I wonder if Douglas Macgregor is one of them, too... :-)
My Father had what they used to say back then a "good war." He was the head of MacArthur's motor pool and spent the war in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. He saw no action until he met my Mother...;o) He married my Aussie mother and my eldest sister was born there and the two of them followed dad home well after the war due to issues with immigration. How different from today! Mac was highly regarded and Dad had nothing but good things to say about him.
Russia seems to be increasing its military’s ability and strength with increased modern weapons availability for its military. From missiles, ECM, missile / drone defenses, drones, tanks, artillery, etc. all the while getting valuable battlefield experience and adapting to the conflict.
Ukraine is getting weaker every day due an unsustainable casualty rate, destruction of military hardware, and lack of ammunition. And the West due to de-industrialization can’t replenish all the military hardware that has been destroyed, from stocks that were minimal to begin with.
Russia’s strategy of slowly grinding through Ukrainian forces is working, why should they change?
McArthur, not McGregor.
Aaaargh!
At least I got the Mc right.
Woops! Got that wrong, too.
Me, too.
I saw that horrendous video about a month ago of those poor buggers trapped in a Russian minefield. I was wondering just today how the man is getting on who managed to apply a tourniquet and clamber back into the APC. I hope he survived.
I see you are trying to be the controlling opposition here. Most of us have heard your propaganda for decades. We were more ignorant then or it was better disguised than it is now, or both.
But we have watched what is wrong in D.C. stagnate and continue to get worse for generations. We can't protect our own borders, but we can help Ukraine protect hers? BS! Regurgitating MSM talking points is not going to get you agreement here. We are seeking truth, not political lies. If you want agreement, go hang out with the Washington Post crowd, or the Huffington Post crowd, or CNN's (former) crowd, etc. You know where to go - where you agree with them and they agree with you, and you can hang out there and be happy. If you do stick around here, read and try to understand how we see things. You might find yourself coming into agreement with at least some of our considered POV's. And if not, so be it.
You haven't understood a thing, have you?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/who-can-guarantee-ukraines-security.html
Some recent history put things into perspective.
What the hey! Who knew there was an Oracle of Darek?
MSNBC’s finest at work.
It is clear that Russia invaded Ukraine. The murk begins with sorting out why. The Origins of War are always hidden in the mist and require great efforts by great historical to sort out. Achieving clarity will take decades assuming access to archives and interviews of participants. Is it true that we supported Ukraine’s artillery attacks on ethnically Russian people over the last 6-8 years in Eastern Ukraine? Was Putin’s hand forced by the possibility of our nuclear weapons minutes from his nuclear deterrent? Or was he just feeling jaunty one day and decided to have a war? This is decades in the making and as the old guard died off the neocons continued to push against Russia. Why choose the route of conflict with Russia? Why not attempt to bring Russia into the fold and build commerce? Was an honest approach ever tried or has it always been about domination and exploitation? Was Russia thought a defeated enemy? At the end of the Cold War was there a Marshall Plan as after WW2 or a punitive/exploitative approach as after WW1? We need them to help balance China but have forced them toward China. Is this the behavior of a commercial republic or an empire? What is the nature of our current regime? Has is needlessly sacrificed hundreds of Ukrainians in a futile war? From a moral perspective does all of this killing warrant the goals discussed? Has our leadership been demoralized and made nihilistic? If so what does this mean for us? Is it possible for Ukraine to achieve stated goals (reclaim Crimea) with inadequate material support? Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons, tactical and strategic. Ukraine was never going to win. One goal was to damage Russia? Rubble the Ruble? Was this ever realistic? What did our leadership not know? Is our intelligence this bad or did they ignore it? Russia appears stronger domestically and internationally with China supplying them a lot of war materiel. We appear weaker with inadequate defense manufacturing. Was this thought through?
Almost all news is opinion these days and the opinion starts with what news stories to discuss. Please provide examples of things that are propaganda on this substack. It seems it is meant as a counter to mainstream news where MacGregor, Mearshimer and other like them are not heard. Given the censorship that has taken place over the last few years alternatives where Mearshimer and others like him can be heard is needed. This is war with Russia, a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons and a large military industrial base. This should be debated in Congress in a serious way. Is that happening? If it was we would not be here at this Substack. Please provide other Substack that are free of propaganda, opinion and speculation that we can look at.
Outstanding riposte. Like good counter-battery fire. He fired, stayed in place too long and 💥. Well done.
?
Historians not historical. Apologies for the typo.
Ugh. More typos. Apologies.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians not hundreds.
"Putin is the POS"
I get that the S stands for "Statesman," but the PO?
Particularly Obstinate?
How did I miss that?