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Mark Wauck's avatar

Note that he says "casualties", as you quote him. The most solid numbers seem to be around 1200 KIA, based on new military cemetery construction. The rest seems to be wounded, extrapolated from normal wartime ratios--which can vary widely according to circs. The current government retains heavy support in rural areas, which includes eastern areas where the largest portion of the Ukrainian minority are located. However ...

Less "official" reports indicate the possibility of heavier casualties, more KIAs. The government is claiming that there's a high possibility of sabotage to infrastructure, which may be a ploy to create a sense of crisis. If heavier casualties develop--which appears to be likely--I suspect that, combined with economic hardships, the balance could tip against the current government. The country is relatively evenly divided so that, despite widespread hatred for Russia, public opinion could shift. Important to remember that these kinds of casualties are occurring in a country (like many others in EU) that has had low birth rates for decades. This takes a heavy toll--possibly heavier than hatred for Russia will bear.

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Stephen McIntyre's avatar

Shryver said on twitter https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1599227697947086848 that "it has now emerged the Poles have already lost ~5000 casualties on Ukrainian battlefields. The current Polish government will almost certainly not survive this debacle." Mark, does this seem plausible based on your knowledge of Poland?

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T. Paine Redux's avatar

“If he’s looking for a way to end the war.” He has a way you doddering old moron. Let the ground freeze good and hard and launch Operation Bargration II.

It still shocks me to think we’re in the clutches of these fools.

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SMH's avatar

Shocks me too, but when I heard that only 51% of eligible NC voters bothered going to the polls this year, guess that’s the consequences of “not” voting. Depressing

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dissonant1's avatar

How many kinds of cancer can Putin have without expiring? So far I have heard stomach, pancreatic, prostate, and blood, with reports of such beginning last May. Now I guess he has Parkinson's, too. What a physical marvel he is to be going through all of this and still be able to make public appearances. :)

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Vladimir Putin's purported commentary today on Germany's defeat at the World Cup:

"I think they ran out of gas."

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Yancey Ward's avatar

Lots of videos like that of Biden- saw it a lot in my father in the last year and half of his life- the wandering around lost because he couldn't remember why he was where he was, or couldn't recognize where he was any longer.

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Dec 2, 2022
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dissonant1's avatar

Frank was our first and best friend. Right. Frank who?

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Dec 2, 2022
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NFO's avatar

Just saw that the Kyivo-Pecharska lavra, the historical centerpiece of all of Russian Orthodoxy, was extrajudically transferred yesterday from the Moscow Patriarchate to the Kyiv Patriarchate.

There's blame to go all around, from Putin's putting an old Leningrad-machine, politicized crony at the top of the MP to the "new Ukrainians" hostility toward Russians and Orthodoxy (and religion generally), but it's simply tragic to see a such beautiful institution as the ROC shattered by politics. Having lived and worked in both Russia and Ukraine in the early '90s, attending Orthodox services on Sundays gave me great in witnessing the renaissance of faith and tradition following the Soviet era.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

There are two Ukrainian Orthodox churches, with slightly different official names, right? This is the one that was formerly under the Moscow Patriarchate?

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Dec 2, 2022
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Mark Wauck's avatar

Please, NO, not "Unitarian". Uniate. Or Greek Catholic. Or Ukrainian Catholic. Not Unitarian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitarianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Greek_Catholic_Church

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