Briefly Noted: State Of The War
Yesterday there a few brief flurries of tweets. Politico said the US was trying to scrounge NASAMS systems from Middle East “allies” (whatever that means) to send to Ukraine. Of course, that would take 2-3 months and the number would be a drop in the bucket in the face of highly capable and numerous Russian systems. Then, following a meeting with France’s Macron …
we heard that Biden was ready jo talk to Putin—if that Bad Boy was ready to talk peace.
Some said this was a sign of growing desperation, as Ukraine’s situation rapidly deteriorates. My view was that the purpose of this supposed offer was twofold: 1) to try to mollify restive European vassal states, which really do want a peace ASAP, and 2) to try to sucker Putin into a ceasefire of some sort, to buy time to rearm Ukraine to some extent. The problem is that Putin isn’t a sucker, so the Russian response wasn’t long in coming:
Also, Andrei Martyanov provides a somewhat amusing Russian perspective on Germany in sport and war:
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
Vladimir Putin's purported commentary today on Germany's defeat at the World Cup:
"I think they ran out of gas."
Note that he says "casualties", as you quote him. The most solid numbers seem to be around 1200 KIA, based on new military cemetery construction. The rest seems to be wounded, extrapolated from normal wartime ratios--which can vary widely according to circs. The current government retains heavy support in rural areas, which includes eastern areas where the largest portion of the Ukrainian minority are located. However ...
Less "official" reports indicate the possibility of heavier casualties, more KIAs. The government is claiming that there's a high possibility of sabotage to infrastructure, which may be a ploy to create a sense of crisis. If heavier casualties develop--which appears to be likely--I suspect that, combined with economic hardships, the balance could tip against the current government. The country is relatively evenly divided so that, despite widespread hatred for Russia, public opinion could shift. Important to remember that these kinds of casualties are occurring in a country (like many others in EU) that has had low birth rates for decades. This takes a heavy toll--possibly heavier than hatred for Russia will bear.