Today will be another busy day, so I’ll try to get this out early.Thanks for reading Meaning In History! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Most readers will be familiar with this story from yesterday: Huge Death Toll After US-Supplied Himars Leveled Russian Barracks In Donetsk, Possibly Hundreds Killed
Deja vu ? This is the title of an article you posted on June 6 this year
You’ve definitely got good foresight !
I’ve been reading your articles for the past year and I’m going to start posting some of my own
Another key perspective is that the longer Putin holds off the big onslaught - - - The more time us Americans have to get our Neocons under control .
Putin’s onslaught Will fill every hospital bed in the Ukraine , Poland & the surrounding friendly countries before he’s done
Notwithstanding the problems Putin is facing at home, it seems to me that his measured and deliberate actions in this SMO have been more helpful than harmful to his overall plans. All of the calamities that were supposed to happen to Russia have not taken place, in fact those calamities are falling fast on the US and it’s partners.
I certainly wouldn’t want to be spending the winter anywhere in Europe or Ukraine. As the old saying goes, time would appear to be on his side.
Couple this with the very sketchy economic and political situation that the US is facing in 2023, if you think time is on our side, I’d like to send you some brochures for a bridge in Brooklyn that I’m listing for a friend. I firmly believe that this elitist neo-con pipe dream is sooner rather than later going to become a full blown nightmare! Just not sure how many of us will be around to say, “told you so”.
Too few members have a background in military or paramilitary organizations, therefore their habits are generally all about ME! ME! MINE! MINE! That combined with an almost total lack of true principles from leadership results in the sorry no-win state of affairs that exists, causes the swamp to get ever deeper and more stinky.
A sad loss for the Russian army, whatever the implications. The writers above are correct to imply that this won't change anything - except maybe to strengthen the Russian's resolve to get this thing done. And as The Saker says, the Himars hit is trying to get the Russians to jump the gun. If so, it will fail. Putin and Surovikin don't seem the panicky types. If I were a Ukrainian squaddie, I'd be watching the weather forecasts very nervously.
It is important to realize, when reading Russian commentary, that there is definitely a school of opinion in Russia that wants total war NOW. Forget about those ducks and the row Putin wants to put them in. Thus, you'll find plenty of Russian opinion urging massive retaliation immediately. Lots of Americans also think that way, based on our "wars" against Third Worlders. Attempts at instant gratification are usually a bad idea in near peer warfare.
Body counts are extremely problematic. I strongly believe the numbers are wrong--for both sides.
Seems the late December offensive has not yet started. Weather too warm? (Currently 44° in Kiev.)
That old strategy vs logistics discussion, again assets itself.
A source who has a subsource who has reported reliably in the past says our guys are on the ground operating or at least supervising the HIMARs and M777 employment.
Every day I wake up, listen to the overnight news...
The question of what effect having "our boys" directly involved will have on things is a tangled one. I've just been watching a documentary about the shooting down of the Iranian airbus by the USS Vincennes, and the near sinking of the USS Stark by Iranian missiles back in 1987/8. Even these events didn't bring the two nations into direct conflict. The Russians also had technicians in Hanoi operating the North Viet air defences and shooting down US bombers during the Vietnam War. Again, this didn't lead to direct conflict. So maybe it won't happen this time either. However, with the stupidity of the Biden regime and the ever-thinning patience of the Russians with our meddling, who knows?
Not sure why the Vincennes shoot down of an Iranian commercial aircraft would have brought the USSR into direct conflict with the US, nor for that matter, two Iraqi exocets fired into Stark. As far as I know, there was no Soviet involvement in either event.
Comparisons with Vietnam and Soviet advisors on the ground, Soviet pilots flying NV migs, or American POWs being secreted to the USSR seem a better comparison, but the world was much different then. Bay of Pigs was still in recent memory.
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear, Sandy. I meant a direct war between the US and Iran. I was using this event as an example of how nations can do very unpleasant things to each other without it leading to war.
Definitely a delicate balancing of pragmatics and risks. I immediately thought of the Rolling Thunder parallels in Vietnam once it became a common assumption that HIMARS were being operated by US personnel on Ukrainian soil. Inasmuch as fear of out-of-theater escalation had us avoiding strikes on Hanoi, allowing Soviet supply lines to continue unabated through Haiphong and requiring McNamara-level approvals for attacking SAM batteries unless fired upon, I can see a rough analogue in the Russians' restraint as to known US/NATO supply routes and missile facilities. That said, geography may make a difference this time in the usual dance--Vietnam was an ocean away, while Ukraine is on Russia's border and, thus, existential. Delicate game indeed.
After Ukraine: Will Russia Downsize NATO?
Deja vu ? This is the title of an article you posted on June 6 this year
You’ve definitely got good foresight !
I’ve been reading your articles for the past year and I’m going to start posting some of my own
Another key perspective is that the longer Putin holds off the big onslaught - - - The more time us Americans have to get our Neocons under control .
Putin’s onslaught Will fill every hospital bed in the Ukraine , Poland & the surrounding friendly countries before he’s done

Notwithstanding the problems Putin is facing at home, it seems to me that his measured and deliberate actions in this SMO have been more helpful than harmful to his overall plans. All of the calamities that were supposed to happen to Russia have not taken place, in fact those calamities are falling fast on the US and it’s partners.
I certainly wouldn’t want to be spending the winter anywhere in Europe or Ukraine. As the old saying goes, time would appear to be on his side.
Couple this with the very sketchy economic and political situation that the US is facing in 2023, if you think time is on our side, I’d like to send you some brochures for a bridge in Brooklyn that I’m listing for a friend. I firmly believe that this elitist neo-con pipe dream is sooner rather than later going to become a full blown nightmare! Just not sure how many of us will be around to say, “told you so”.
Sundance: The Republicans in the Swamp are Doing Swampy Things
MTG speaking some hard truths:
https://youtu.be/-WX1wxcl_7A
Too few members have a background in military or paramilitary organizations, therefore their habits are generally all about ME! ME! MINE! MINE! That combined with an almost total lack of true principles from leadership results in the sorry no-win state of affairs that exists, causes the swamp to get ever deeper and more stinky.
Let me clear. I'm not necessarily "supporting" Kev. It's just an illustration of the no-win situation we're in. Swamps are unpleasant places.
A sad loss for the Russian army, whatever the implications. The writers above are correct to imply that this won't change anything - except maybe to strengthen the Russian's resolve to get this thing done. And as The Saker says, the Himars hit is trying to get the Russians to jump the gun. If so, it will fail. Putin and Surovikin don't seem the panicky types. If I were a Ukrainian squaddie, I'd be watching the weather forecasts very nervously.
It is important to realize, when reading Russian commentary, that there is definitely a school of opinion in Russia that wants total war NOW. Forget about those ducks and the row Putin wants to put them in. Thus, you'll find plenty of Russian opinion urging massive retaliation immediately. Lots of Americans also think that way, based on our "wars" against Third Worlders. Attempts at instant gratification are usually a bad idea in near peer warfare.
1983 Beirut 241 US Marines.
Kipling has some thoughts, too:
https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_gravehundred.htm
Body counts are extremely problematic. I strongly believe the numbers are wrong--for both sides.
Seems the late December offensive has not yet started. Weather too warm? (Currently 44° in Kiev.)
That old strategy vs logistics discussion, again assets itself.
A source who has a subsource who has reported reliably in the past says our guys are on the ground operating or at least supervising the HIMARs and M777 employment.
Every day I wake up, listen to the overnight news...
Relieved when a nuc has not yet been employed.
The question of what effect having "our boys" directly involved will have on things is a tangled one. I've just been watching a documentary about the shooting down of the Iranian airbus by the USS Vincennes, and the near sinking of the USS Stark by Iranian missiles back in 1987/8. Even these events didn't bring the two nations into direct conflict. The Russians also had technicians in Hanoi operating the North Viet air defences and shooting down US bombers during the Vietnam War. Again, this didn't lead to direct conflict. So maybe it won't happen this time either. However, with the stupidity of the Biden regime and the ever-thinning patience of the Russians with our meddling, who knows?
Not sure why the Vincennes shoot down of an Iranian commercial aircraft would have brought the USSR into direct conflict with the US, nor for that matter, two Iraqi exocets fired into Stark. As far as I know, there was no Soviet involvement in either event.
Comparisons with Vietnam and Soviet advisors on the ground, Soviet pilots flying NV migs, or American POWs being secreted to the USSR seem a better comparison, but the world was much different then. Bay of Pigs was still in recent memory.
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear, Sandy. I meant a direct war between the US and Iran. I was using this event as an example of how nations can do very unpleasant things to each other without it leading to war.
Okay, got it.
Definitely a delicate balancing of pragmatics and risks. I immediately thought of the Rolling Thunder parallels in Vietnam once it became a common assumption that HIMARS were being operated by US personnel on Ukrainian soil. Inasmuch as fear of out-of-theater escalation had us avoiding strikes on Hanoi, allowing Soviet supply lines to continue unabated through Haiphong and requiring McNamara-level approvals for attacking SAM batteries unless fired upon, I can see a rough analogue in the Russians' restraint as to known US/NATO supply routes and missile facilities. That said, geography may make a difference this time in the usual dance--Vietnam was an ocean away, while Ukraine is on Russia's border and, thus, existential. Delicate game indeed.
That just means their surprise and anger is going to be that much greater when reality takes charge over the next few months.