Briefly Noted: Russian MOD Statement Re HIMARS Missile Strike

Today will be another busy day, so I’ll try to get this out early.

Most readers will be familiar with this story from yesterday:

Huge Death Toll After US-Supplied Himars Leveled Russian Barracks In Donetsk, Possibly Hundreds Killed

Russian forces have just suffered what may be their single biggest loss of the war in an attack, after a Ukrainian strike killed multiple dozens, or possibly hundreds, of newly mobilized troops in the east of the country. Moscow is now pointing to a US role in the devastating attack.

"Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka," The Wall Street Journal reports of the attack in Russian-occupied Donbas.

The obvious first observation is that this is the kind of thing that happens in a war. One side targets the soldiers of the other side—hopefully, not civilians.

The second obvious observation is that Russia’s MOD—which so far is confirming 63 dead—is fingering the US as its adversary in this war. That’s significant. Whether it makes any impression at all on our rulers in DC is another question. This is the kind of situation on which there should be informed public debate followed by a vote in Congress. That was when we had a republic.

Larry Johnson (and others) makes a third obvious point, which piggybacks on point two:

WESTERN REACTION TO CONFIRMED DEATHS OF MORE THAN 60 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IS QUITE A TELL!

Why the big deal? We have been told repeatedly over the last 8 months that Russia is suffering catastrophic casualties. What makes this so special and deserving of so much attention?

The answer is simple — this is the first time since the war started in February 2022 that Russia has suffered more than 50 casualties in one engagement in one day. How do I know? Because the Russian telegram channels lit up immediately when this happened. This is the first time I have seen that kind of reaction from the Russian side in the last 10 months.

The reaction to this missile attack highlights the stark contrast between Russia and Ukraine. The spokesman for the Russian MOD freely and frankly admitted to the “success” of the Ukrainian strike while the Ukrainian military — which is losing at least 200 men every day — covers up their losses and insists they are beating the hell out of Russia. The Ukrainians have told so many lies over the course of the last 10 months — e.g. the Ghost of Kiev, capturing a Russian border outpost, shooting down all Russian cruise missiles, driving the Russians out of Kherson, etc. — that this successful missile strike finally gave them something real they could celebrate.

But this attack is a lie. It was not carried out by highly trained Ukrainian troops sitting on an ample supply of Himars. This was done with Western supplied intelligence that identified the troop concentration and provided the coordinates for launching a precision strike. Moreover, it is highly likely that NATO troops were helping operate the Himar system. This attack actually is a sign of Ukrainian and Western desperation. It changes nothing in terms of the strategic picture.

Parenthetically, you don’t hear too much about these types of stories, which happen regularly:

More than 130 foreign mercenaries were destroyed (Killed) during the strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the temporary deployment points of the "foreign Legion" units in the areas of Maslyakovka and Kramatorsk of the DPR

Strike on targets in Druzhkovka: As a result of strikes on the accumulation of military equipment near the Druzhkovka railway station in the DPR, two US-made HIMARS MLRS launchers and four Czech-made RM-70 Vampire MLRS combat vehicles were destroyed

More than 800 MLRS missiles, six vehicles, and up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen were eliminated.

Russia Ministry of Defense

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

So ... ~120 AFU troops wiped out with one strike, and ~130 "foreign mercenaries" wiped out with a different strike?

Plus a couple HIMARS launchers and ~800 rockets?

Ouch.

More than 130 foreign mercenaries were destroyed (Killed) during the strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the temporary deployment points of the "foreign Legion" units in the areas of Maslyako...

This sort of thing happens to the Ukrainians a few times a week, every week, for months now.

This is what happens in war, too. What did Churchill say about truth being surrounded by a bodyguard of lies? One key to clarity is to identify the side that does the most lying.

But The Saker hits on a key point in all this business of US provocations—and does so using the phrase I’ve been employing lately—”ducks in a row”. What’s the reason for the escalations?

Making sense of NATO strikes against Russia

The Saker argues, persuasively, that the reason is to somehow provoke Russia launching its long expected major offensive earlier than Russia wants to—presumably to satisfy hardliners on the domestic front (in Russia) who are clamoring for decisive, vengeful action:

The war is already going on, the Russians are already fighting along a very long frontline, the Russian Aerospace Forces are already striking targets over the entire Ukraine, so what is there more to provoke/trigger?

I submit that there is only one thing which the Russians have not done yet, and that is the fullscale combined arms operation the Russian General Staff is obviously preparing. And since this major offensive is almost certain to happen, the only thing which such NATO strikes could affect is the timing of the attack. And since there is no way that these NATO (pinprick) strikes could delay the Russian offensive, their only possibly goal would be to make it happen sooner.

Why would NATO want the Russian offensive sooner rather than later? …

Because the Russian General Staff is waiting for all the “ducks to be lined” up before attacking. Thus by trying to force the Russians into a premature attack date, NATO is, very logically, trying to prevent all the said “ducks” to be “lined up”. In other words, NATO is trying to force the hand of the Russian General Staff by increasing the pressure on the Kremlin to “finally take action”.

Trying to force your enemy into a premature attack makes perfect military sense (as would any effort to seize the initiative and impose your tempo on your enemy).

Makes sense to me.