In a remarkable development, Russia has stated that it is pulling back across the Dnieper River, vacating the city of Kherson, which was recently incorporated into the Russian Federation. The withdrawal seems to be well planned and exectuted, but it remains a withdrawal from a part of the Russian Federation. I assume that this is a temporary measure, as the official statement suggests, but it will certainly cause public upset in Russia. Here is the statement
I must disagree with Moon of Alabama. Strategically, the move is sound.
The damage to that Crimean bridge limits the tonnage of supplies that can be sent across it. The Kherson position was becoming increasingly difficult to supply. The Ukrainians were, as of the time of the pullout, incapable of pushing the Russians into the river in part due to a shortage of HIMARS rounds, but that could have changed. The Russians are dependent on rail for their supply. That's awfully vulnerable to sabotage and special ops type of attacks, and the Ukrainians have bene working on that. (The same problem bedeviled the Wehrmacht 1941-45) The elite units, airborne etc, went out first under cover of an evacuation of civilians, perhaps weeks ago. If they're planning a winter offensive (And I think they are) they need time to rest and refit those units.
Moon's right that Shoigu can't be happy about this. I wouldn't be either. But in war, hard decisions must sometimes be made, and I think this was the right one. The Russians need a Ukrainian surrender. That cannot be obtained in Kherson, or in the south. That can only be obtained in the north, and if they can get it, then the world will little note nor long remember the evacuation of Kherson. But when the winter battle comes, two or three additional brigades at the center of gravity might make all the difference.
I agree that this makes strategic sense. The Dnieper is a major barrier. Attacking directly across it is problematic for a variety of reasons. There are better options.
"More than 100,000 Russian troops — and about as many Ukrainian troops — are estimated to have died or been injured in the war so far, according to Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."
Yes. Based largely on watching Alexander Mercouris daily, this number seems to be about right for Ukrainian military casualties but an extreme overestimation by Milley in terms of Russian casualties. Does anyone have a better estimate?
This decision cannot have been taken lightly. If the Russians are planning a winter offensive, then they will want to deal a decisive blow. To do that, they must accumulate reserves and supplies. My guess (Guess!) is they have concluded that the expenditure of munitions and supplies needed to defend Kherson will end up weakening the coming winter offensive. I don't know what form the winter offensive will take. General Surovikin does not keep me informed of his plans. But the buildup in Belarus can only be intended for offensive action, as there is no Ukrainian advance there to be halted.
SInce an offensive in the south is unlikely to yield a decisive result, the Russians must reduce their expenditure of munitions and fuel in the south. They must, perhaps cut back temporarily on air sorties to perform maintenance and prepare for an operation where every plane they can put in the sky will be needed. Trucks hauling supplies must be put to hauling them to wherever the dumps to support the coming offensive are located.
In my view, the Russians have done this to prepare for a major offensive.
EDIT: The line of the Dnepr can be held with a minimal number of troops, meaning that units can be pulled from the line to rest, refit, and perhaps absorb replacements from men being mobilized. ANd then they can be redeployed to support a renewed offensive.
Sounds plausible. Surovikin made it clear that keeping casualties to the minimum necessary remains a priority. Preparing an overwhelming strike would fit in with that.
"And by the simple act of moving to the east bank of the Dnieper, the Russians have effectively ended Ukrainian offensive aspirations in southern Ukraine. They now have zero viable options to move further in the region. And winter is coming ..."
They could effectively end Ukrainian offensive aspirations by surrendering! I'm not sure what to believe anymore. The "experts" on our side like Larry Johnson, The Saker, etc. keep on shouting "Maskirovka! Deep Ops!" and that the Russians are laying a Stalingrad trap (oh, and if you haven't spent 60 years in Special Forces, you need to shut up!). They also keep on telling us that the Ukies have no more offensive capabilities, yet, at the same time, Russia needs to evacuate Kherson because of the upcoming Ukie offensive. I'm rapidly getting sick and tired of the whole lot of them.
That's probably why I was never officer material in my military service, Cassander! Time is an interesting factor in the SMO. The longer this drags on, the greater damage it inflicts on the EU economies and body politic. However, the longer it continues the more effect is might have on Russian public opinion, and also the danger of an escalation. However, the Russian public seems okay with things so far. As for escalation, we'll see whether the West sees the move as an off ramp for them and takes it, or doubles down on their stupidity.
It would also help our Military if they took away the mandate for the vaccine as that is still an issue and they have let way too many go already........short on pilots too. They are just waiting for court fight in January, but much enthusiasm for joining the Military has been because of the fallout on the vaccine mandate. Many podcasts have had Military explain to public, but it's like everything else.........quiet on the Western front. Very sad. Horrible morale there too. My grandson (15) has wanted all his young life to follow in Dad's footsteps of being Marine pilot. No longer. His Dad, a Marine Top Gun F-35 instructor, 19 years in service, unvaccinated, is just waiting for his dismissal. January lawsuit holding up his dismissal for now, but the way he has been treated has ruined his enthusiasm for being a career Military man. It's all about control, not health obviously. And they wonder why they can't recruit? Many retired Military are not recommending the Military anymore as a career path.
I don't understand the Russian withdrawal. They declare Kherson as a part of Russia, mobilize 300k troops and stuff tens of thousands of them there, beat back a dozen waves of assaults by the ukrainians... and then, leave? Sorry, but that sounds like a theatre defeat to me. Ukraine also has long supply lines and problems of its own, yet they seem perfectly capable of supplying and moving an army in the field and conducting operations.
On America vs China - judging by the nature of this new type of war, essentially drone-driven, whether its strike drones, kamikaze drones, or spotter drones for artillery/missile strikes, this is an area where I would think China has enormous advantages over the US, in both quantity and quality.
The "experts" tell us that it is a brilliant tactical move. Maybe it is. But I wonder what the Great Russian Public is going to think? Putin needs to be popular too, just like any Western pol.
I read the Admiral’s comments as a public admission that “yes we did give all of our ammo and spare parts to the Ukrainians, who still haven’t won, and we better hope no one attacks us while we don’t have anything to shoot back at them with.”
I must disagree with Moon of Alabama. Strategically, the move is sound.
The damage to that Crimean bridge limits the tonnage of supplies that can be sent across it. The Kherson position was becoming increasingly difficult to supply. The Ukrainians were, as of the time of the pullout, incapable of pushing the Russians into the river in part due to a shortage of HIMARS rounds, but that could have changed. The Russians are dependent on rail for their supply. That's awfully vulnerable to sabotage and special ops type of attacks, and the Ukrainians have bene working on that. (The same problem bedeviled the Wehrmacht 1941-45) The elite units, airborne etc, went out first under cover of an evacuation of civilians, perhaps weeks ago. If they're planning a winter offensive (And I think they are) they need time to rest and refit those units.
Moon's right that Shoigu can't be happy about this. I wouldn't be either. But in war, hard decisions must sometimes be made, and I think this was the right one. The Russians need a Ukrainian surrender. That cannot be obtained in Kherson, or in the south. That can only be obtained in the north, and if they can get it, then the world will little note nor long remember the evacuation of Kherson. But when the winter battle comes, two or three additional brigades at the center of gravity might make all the difference.
I agree that this makes strategic sense. The Dnieper is a major barrier. Attacking directly across it is problematic for a variety of reasons. There are better options.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/the-pullout-from-kherson.html
For some reason...perhaps illogical or indefensible...I trust Putin.
Meanwhile the regime makes this claim!
"More than 100,000 Russian troops — and about as many Ukrainian troops — are estimated to have died or been injured in the war so far, according to Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."
Yes. Based largely on watching Alexander Mercouris daily, this number seems to be about right for Ukrainian military casualties but an extreme overestimation by Milley in terms of Russian casualties. Does anyone have a better estimate?
This decision cannot have been taken lightly. If the Russians are planning a winter offensive, then they will want to deal a decisive blow. To do that, they must accumulate reserves and supplies. My guess (Guess!) is they have concluded that the expenditure of munitions and supplies needed to defend Kherson will end up weakening the coming winter offensive. I don't know what form the winter offensive will take. General Surovikin does not keep me informed of his plans. But the buildup in Belarus can only be intended for offensive action, as there is no Ukrainian advance there to be halted.
SInce an offensive in the south is unlikely to yield a decisive result, the Russians must reduce their expenditure of munitions and fuel in the south. They must, perhaps cut back temporarily on air sorties to perform maintenance and prepare for an operation where every plane they can put in the sky will be needed. Trucks hauling supplies must be put to hauling them to wherever the dumps to support the coming offensive are located.
In my view, the Russians have done this to prepare for a major offensive.
EDIT: The line of the Dnepr can be held with a minimal number of troops, meaning that units can be pulled from the line to rest, refit, and perhaps absorb replacements from men being mobilized. ANd then they can be redeployed to support a renewed offensive.
Sounds plausible. Surovikin made it clear that keeping casualties to the minimum necessary remains a priority. Preparing an overwhelming strike would fit in with that.
Agreed.
"And by the simple act of moving to the east bank of the Dnieper, the Russians have effectively ended Ukrainian offensive aspirations in southern Ukraine. They now have zero viable options to move further in the region. And winter is coming ..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1590547687631622145
They could effectively end Ukrainian offensive aspirations by surrendering! I'm not sure what to believe anymore. The "experts" on our side like Larry Johnson, The Saker, etc. keep on shouting "Maskirovka! Deep Ops!" and that the Russians are laying a Stalingrad trap (oh, and if you haven't spent 60 years in Special Forces, you need to shut up!). They also keep on telling us that the Ukies have no more offensive capabilities, yet, at the same time, Russia needs to evacuate Kherson because of the upcoming Ukie offensive. I'm rapidly getting sick and tired of the whole lot of them.
War is not for the impatient!
That's probably why I was never officer material in my military service, Cassander! Time is an interesting factor in the SMO. The longer this drags on, the greater damage it inflicts on the EU economies and body politic. However, the longer it continues the more effect is might have on Russian public opinion, and also the danger of an escalation. However, the Russian public seems okay with things so far. As for escalation, we'll see whether the West sees the move as an off ramp for them and takes it, or doubles down on their stupidity.
Maybe the US should have thought about the military threat posed by Russia and China before they needlessly provoked them both.
It would also help our Military if they took away the mandate for the vaccine as that is still an issue and they have let way too many go already........short on pilots too. They are just waiting for court fight in January, but much enthusiasm for joining the Military has been because of the fallout on the vaccine mandate. Many podcasts have had Military explain to public, but it's like everything else.........quiet on the Western front. Very sad. Horrible morale there too. My grandson (15) has wanted all his young life to follow in Dad's footsteps of being Marine pilot. No longer. His Dad, a Marine Top Gun F-35 instructor, 19 years in service, unvaccinated, is just waiting for his dismissal. January lawsuit holding up his dismissal for now, but the way he has been treated has ruined his enthusiasm for being a career Military man. It's all about control, not health obviously. And they wonder why they can't recruit? Many retired Military are not recommending the Military anymore as a career path.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-orders-troops-leave-kherson-zelenskys-office-cautions-over-staged-retreat
There are rumours going round about possible peace talks. If true - if, if, if - this could be part of the deal. Who knows?
I don't understand the Russian withdrawal. They declare Kherson as a part of Russia, mobilize 300k troops and stuff tens of thousands of them there, beat back a dozen waves of assaults by the ukrainians... and then, leave? Sorry, but that sounds like a theatre defeat to me. Ukraine also has long supply lines and problems of its own, yet they seem perfectly capable of supplying and moving an army in the field and conducting operations.
On America vs China - judging by the nature of this new type of war, essentially drone-driven, whether its strike drones, kamikaze drones, or spotter drones for artillery/missile strikes, this is an area where I would think China has enormous advantages over the US, in both quantity and quality.
The "experts" tell us that it is a brilliant tactical move. Maybe it is. But I wonder what the Great Russian Public is going to think? Putin needs to be popular too, just like any Western pol.
Confused population + corrupt politicians = I don't like where things are headed.
I read the Admiral’s comments as a public admission that “yes we did give all of our ammo and spare parts to the Ukrainians, who still haven’t won, and we better hope no one attacks us while we don’t have anything to shoot back at them with.”
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1590426928732729344