In a remarkable development, Russia has stated that it is pulling back across the Dnieper River, vacating the city of Kherson, which was recently incorporated into the Russian Federation. The withdrawal seems to be well planned and exectuted, but it remains a withdrawal from a part of the Russian Federation. I assume that this is a temporary measure, as the official statement suggests, but it will certainly cause public upset in Russia. Here is the statement
Here’s a video of a press briefing:
And here’s a remarkably frank assessment of the state of the US military:
'The Big One Is Coming': Top US Military Commander Warns American Capabilities "Sinking"
A top US military commander has warned that the power of America's military deterrent is 'fading' - and that America might not be adequately prepared for a large-scale military engagement.
"This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup," Navy Admiral Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said at a conference last week, according to the WSJ Editorial Board.
"The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested" for "a long time."
According to Richard, things are getting worse.
"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking. It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are," he said, adding "as those curves keep going," it won't matter "how good our commanders are, or how good our horses are—we’re not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."
Note that modifier “near-term.” This is a more urgent vulnerability than most of the political class cares to recognize.
Adm. Richard noted that America retains an advantage in submarines—“maybe the only true asymmetric advantage we still have”—but even that may erode unless America picks up the pace “getting our maintenance problems fixed, getting new construction going.” Building three Virginia-class fast-attack submarines a year would be a good place to start. -WSJ
Meanwhile, America was caught flat-footed last year when China tested a hypersonic missile that flew around the world. This means that Beijing can put any US city or facility at risk - perhaps without even being detected.
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Obviously this is, in part, a request for more money. But if the assessment is accurate, the problems will not be resolved in the near term, no matter how much money gets thrown at them. Moreover, the use of the word “urgent” suggests that the “warmup” in Ukraine has been a wake-up call to the US military.
Meanwhile, Zhou’s on the job—at least part time—and we had a major election in which these issues never got discussed.
I must disagree with Moon of Alabama. Strategically, the move is sound.
The damage to that Crimean bridge limits the tonnage of supplies that can be sent across it. The Kherson position was becoming increasingly difficult to supply. The Ukrainians were, as of the time of the pullout, incapable of pushing the Russians into the river in part due to a shortage of HIMARS rounds, but that could have changed. The Russians are dependent on rail for their supply. That's awfully vulnerable to sabotage and special ops type of attacks, and the Ukrainians have bene working on that. (The same problem bedeviled the Wehrmacht 1941-45) The elite units, airborne etc, went out first under cover of an evacuation of civilians, perhaps weeks ago. If they're planning a winter offensive (And I think they are) they need time to rest and refit those units.
Moon's right that Shoigu can't be happy about this. I wouldn't be either. But in war, hard decisions must sometimes be made, and I think this was the right one. The Russians need a Ukrainian surrender. That cannot be obtained in Kherson, or in the south. That can only be obtained in the north, and if they can get it, then the world will little note nor long remember the evacuation of Kherson. But when the winter battle comes, two or three additional brigades at the center of gravity might make all the difference.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/the-pullout-from-kherson.html