Triggered by a comment from Yancey Ward, I did a search to find out what I could regarding the current state of Hezbollah’s air defenses. It’s a timely topic because, if Hezbollah opens a northern front with Israel as threatened, Israel—based on its 2006 experience—would likely prefer to spar with Hezbollah at long range, rather than via a land invasion. Hezbollah, I surmised, has probably been preparing for such an eventuality. Most searches that I framed returned results dealing with Israeli defenses against Hezbollah missiles. However, I did come up with an article from just four months ago. That article—from which I’ll quote the two concluding paragraphs—confirms that Hezbollah has been busily beefing up its air defenses for at least the last four years:
One of the more interesting arguments I've been seeing A LOT on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is: "Hamas undoubtedly predicted Israel's massive retaliation, that makes them all the more guilty for sacrificing Palestinian lives".
What people don't realize is that the fact this reaction - the massive collective punishment - was indeed immensely predictable says just as much about Israel than it does about Hamas.
It says a lot about Israel for 3 reasons. 1) It says a lot about Israel's image that it was expected to react with massive collective punishment, violating international law. 2) It also says a lot about Israel's inability to think strategically that it would react in exactly the way its adversary predicted it to. Revenge is not a strategy, in fact it is the opposite of strategic. And, lastly 3) it says a lot that Israel doesn't seem to have learned a thing from the US's immense mistakes in its post 9-11 response.
...
from where I am standing, Israel is losing big time by playing into the hand of its adversary. Even Europe - Europe! - is on the verge today of breaking ranks ... This is on top of renewed support for the Palestinian cause by the Muslim world,
...
This war also reveals something interesting, and I'll end with this. It reveals how much power and influence the wider West has lost in driving the global conversation. ... Today by contrast it is so overwhelming that even Europe - Europe! - feels compelled to dissent. Which of course they'd never do out of pure morality, they do so because they have their back against the wall, ... Heck we just saw that the US asked China - China! - to "use its influence to push for calm in the Middle-East": this would have been absolutely unthinkable 22 years ago,
Anyone remember that rather quaint old conflict in a place called Ukraine? The neocons have managed the switcheroo. Ukraine is already fading from the normies' consciousness.
Given the seeming inability of modern AA systems to hit Iran’s 2 stroke Shaheed drones, Israel’s nuclear reactor facilities in the Negev would be vulnerable to Hezbollah drones.
Not to mention if Iran had intel on where their bomb stockpiles reside.
Iran May have gotten SA-400 missiles which are a larger threat. They are supposed to have SA-300. And Iran has a history of reverse engineering military technology.
Neither Hezbollah or the Israel wants to tip off the other side to their capabilities. Russia has shown once they get information on enemy missiles through experience, they can create an update that increases their anti missile capabilities.
But consider: Ukraine, with our guidance, has been digging into black earth and reinforcing with concrete. Hezbollah has been tunneling into mountains. There are a lot of variables involved in taking on deeply dug in fortifications--lot of physics involved, including the types of charges to use, etc. Example, our naval bombardment of Iwo Jima barely made a dent in the caves and tunnels of Mt. Suribachi, and you know that those naval guns were heaving some pretty hefty charges. The Russians have had slow going against those well prepared fortifications. That's why they're now using FAB-1500s. But you have to have the bombs, the launch platforms, the ability to get within striking range, etc.
Must read by Arnaud Bertrand at MoA. He goes out on a limb where I'd hesitate to go. Some highlights:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/arnaud-bertrand-how-israel-stepped-into-a-trap.html#more
One of the more interesting arguments I've been seeing A LOT on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is: "Hamas undoubtedly predicted Israel's massive retaliation, that makes them all the more guilty for sacrificing Palestinian lives".
What people don't realize is that the fact this reaction - the massive collective punishment - was indeed immensely predictable says just as much about Israel than it does about Hamas.
It says a lot about Israel for 3 reasons. 1) It says a lot about Israel's image that it was expected to react with massive collective punishment, violating international law. 2) It also says a lot about Israel's inability to think strategically that it would react in exactly the way its adversary predicted it to. Revenge is not a strategy, in fact it is the opposite of strategic. And, lastly 3) it says a lot that Israel doesn't seem to have learned a thing from the US's immense mistakes in its post 9-11 response.
...
from where I am standing, Israel is losing big time by playing into the hand of its adversary. Even Europe - Europe! - is on the verge today of breaking ranks ... This is on top of renewed support for the Palestinian cause by the Muslim world,
...
This war also reveals something interesting, and I'll end with this. It reveals how much power and influence the wider West has lost in driving the global conversation. ... Today by contrast it is so overwhelming that even Europe - Europe! - feels compelled to dissent. Which of course they'd never do out of pure morality, they do so because they have their back against the wall, ... Heck we just saw that the US asked China - China! - to "use its influence to push for calm in the Middle-East": this would have been absolutely unthinkable 22 years ago,
Just proves Zhou's foreign policy is in shambles. Passivity combined with genuflect. It's why movements like BLM, LGBTQ etc. came about.
Sensible article by LJ:
https://sonar21.com/is-israel-unprepared-to-fight-hamas/
Supply shortages, lack of training and/or experience, inherent difficulty of urban combat ...
Someone may have thought this through, but it probably wasn't Israel.
Anyone remember that rather quaint old conflict in a place called Ukraine? The neocons have managed the switcheroo. Ukraine is already fading from the normies' consciousness.
21, Ukraine is sooo two days ago!
Oh look, there’s a really pretty shiny thing over there. Wonder what it is, gotta go man I’ll catch you later.
Given the seeming inability of modern AA systems to hit Iran’s 2 stroke Shaheed drones, Israel’s nuclear reactor facilities in the Negev would be vulnerable to Hezbollah drones.
Not to mention if Iran had intel on where their bomb stockpiles reside.
we'll get our first real test of the F-35's capabilities. Hezbollah souring drones from Iran too could cripple northern Israel.
Oh, and slow down Mark. I can barely keep up with you on a Saturday. Geezy peezy pleasey.
The two missile types mentioned in the article are 30-50 year old technology:
SA-8
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K33_Osa
SA-20
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system
Iran May have gotten SA-400 missiles which are a larger threat. They are supposed to have SA-300. And Iran has a history of reverse engineering military technology.
Neither Hezbollah or the Israel wants to tip off the other side to their capabilities. Russia has shown once they get information on enemy missiles through experience, they can create an update that increases their anti missile capabilities.
I'd bet at a minimum S-300 systems are with Hezbollah.
Don't discount "old" tech. In 2006 Hezbollah used 1973 Sagger anti-tank missiles to great effect.
2006 my understanding was the Israeli tanks deployed in urban environments and due to failures the Trophy anti missile system was developed.
My question is why so many Israeli tanks were taken out in latest Hamas attack.
Tanks are the battleships of the 21st century. Time has caught up with them.
Tanks are becoming an old technology. They still have a space on the battlefield but that space is shrinking.
We are not yet to the type Hammers Slammers uses….
DEI training took the Israeli soldiers away from their vehicles for some time.
Fascinating analysis of the 2006 war by Crooke:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2006/10/13/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-2/
Crooke is on fire right now. Great analysis.
Good article.
Russia my guess has had similar issues of Ukraine fortifications, and has figured out how to counter them.
Question can Israel also?
But consider: Ukraine, with our guidance, has been digging into black earth and reinforcing with concrete. Hezbollah has been tunneling into mountains. There are a lot of variables involved in taking on deeply dug in fortifications--lot of physics involved, including the types of charges to use, etc. Example, our naval bombardment of Iwo Jima barely made a dent in the caves and tunnels of Mt. Suribachi, and you know that those naval guns were heaving some pretty hefty charges. The Russians have had slow going against those well prepared fortifications. That's why they're now using FAB-1500s. But you have to have the bombs, the launch platforms, the ability to get within striking range, etc.
I find his chatter a bit disturbing.