personally, I think that you misinterpret Prof. Mearsheimer's thesis partly inaccurately, I think that when he says that the US wants something, he doesn't mean that the current US deep state establishment actually wants it, but that it should want it from the perspective of the theory of empirical realism
NBC News reports that 'Dozens of additional U.S. fighter jets have been deployed across the Middle East in order to assist Israel in its expected retaliatory attack against Iran'
- Iran has twice demonstrated that they can penetrate Israeli air defences.
- Iran is now defended by the world's best air defence system, the S400, manned by Russian operators. Probably why it took them so long to respond - they were waiting until the system was fully operational.
- To mount an effective attack you first have to target air defence systems. However, Russia has stated that an attack on those systems will be viewed as an attack on Russia itself.
- Since the port expansion in Tartus Syria which began in 2017, Russia can now host up to 16 capital ships, including nuclear submarines. Flight time to Israel is less than five minutes for anything launched from that location.
- For the first time, Russia has intercepted Israeli missiles aimed at Syria.
- Netanyahu recently tried to call Putin. Putin refused to take the call.
- Israel's oil supplies, now that the Red Sea is closed, come mainly via pipeline from Azerbaijan through Turkey.
- Azerbaijan has made a formal application to join BRICS.
- Turkey has indicated an interest to join BRICS which will be on the agenda at the upcoming conference in Kazan, beginning Oct 22nd.
Anything that interferes with the upcoming conference, such as an attack on a founding member state (Iran) will be viewed very negatively by Russia and other participants. Turkey is under increasing domestic pressure to shut down that pipeline. If Iran is attacked, Azerbaijan might cut off the oil before Turkey can shut down the pipeline, leading to a serious loss of face for Erdogan.
Israel's attack on Lebanon is not going well in terms of casualties and losses of equipment. Key figures in their military warned against an invasion but they were overruled. The terrain is difficult and the advantage is with the defender who has had ample time to prepare. How long can these loses be sustained?
Israeli citizens are leaving the country in numbers now. Some to avoid military service, others whose commitment to radical Zionism is fading, if it ever existed. Like rational people everywhere, their personal and family safety comes first.
Hezbollah, by contrast, has a virtually unlimited supply of fighters drawn from across the entire Muslim world. In terms of numbers, Israel will soon find itself in the same situation as Ukraine, which now lacks the trained personnel to conduct an effective military campaign.
It looks like Israel has painted itself into a corner. The economy is in disarray, people are leaving and there's no chance of a military victory. The best outcome would be the removal of the current government by their military followed by negotiations to establish peace, but how likely is that? Their last resort, a decision to use nuclear weapons would likely be stopped by their own military as a matter of self preservation, but if not, the response to that would likely be an attack by Russia to remove Israel's capacity to threaten anyone ever again, which is effectively the end of the State of Israel, at least in its current form. As a matter of self-preservation, I would expect the USA to sit that one out.
Also worth mentioning is that China gets a significant amount of its oil from Iran, and anything that interferes with that, such as an attack on Iranian facilities or the closure of the straits of Hormuz will bring them into the conflict.
Thus you have Russia, China and most of the Muslim world (if not their leadership) arrayed against a NATO alliance already feeling the strain of the war in Ukraine, and the USA, who given their open borders of the last few years will likely face internal as well as external attack should they enter the fray. Not a winning hand in my opinion.
One more item for your list. Reports are starting to appear that Iran may have, as it stated, targeted and hit at least some air defense radar sites in Israel. Next time around ...
Very likely I would say. The first barrage was to draw them out and identify their launch and radar sites. That compels them to relocate, which is problematic since the first location is usually the best. I imagine they've moved them by now, but their ability to intercept has been revealed and found wanting by the looks of it.
Another point I failed to mention, which is talk of committing US forces to an invasion of Iran. Not going to happen for the simple reason that unlike Gulf War II, there is nowhere to stage the forces (KSA has already declared neutrality) and no viable invasion route. The best the US can do is send troops to Israel to back fill their forces as their combat elements are depleted and rear echelons are called to the front. Similar to Ukraine, but just as ineffective as they can also be targeted.
Another wild card, which I don't have much information on, is Russian electronic warfare capabilities which apparently have been set up in Iran. If they're as good as rumours suggests, it not only spells trouble for Israel, but for anyone targeting Russia with nuclear weapons. That's puts a whole new spin on MAD, because it would no longer be mutual. Highly speculative, but it's something to keep in mind.
I have a few friends who feel that Israel should be let off the leash so to speak to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. Take out their nuclear facilities, their bomb making facilities that Oil fields, everything.
One of Trump’s big problems is, he doesn’t understand the geopolitical make up of things. If you bomb Iran and create the kind of devastation that would happen you’re going to bring Russia into this along with China since they’ve made agreements with Iran under BRICS.
Before those planes can get to Iran to bomb it, they will fire their entire arsenal of hypersonic missiles on Israel, regardless of they are civilian or military targets. Hezbollah will do the same from Lebanon by the time it’s all over Israel could be in total shambles.
There are no heroes here in Israel is no hero fighting against terrorism. From what I have read this week and a book I am currently reading. Israel is only interested expanding their territory they originally wanted all the land from the Egyptian border through the trans Jordan for Zionist movement. They don’t care about any of those people and we just soon exterminate every one of them if they could. There is no place for any of these refugees to go. Egypt will not take them and nobody else will either.
The more I read about the Zionist movement in their single minded March to having a Jewish state the more I find that Israel was founded on nothing but murder and terrorism. They have absolutely no moral or ethical high ground whatsoever. They have sacrificed their own people in the cause of their Zionist movement for their own nation. it is really appalling to read the crimes committed and the people killed toward this Machiavellian ending.
Tell your friends that they should go join the Israeli army so they can help.
Seriously though the US and Israel lack the ordnance to wreck Iran in the way that can wreck Lebanon. Plus there are Russian AD systems manned by Russians to contend with. If the retaliation from Israel is escalatory expect to see an order of magnitude larger response. If any sensitive sites are hit like nuclear facilities or there are large numbers of civilian casualties then every high value target in Israel will be hit. All civilian infrastructure - airports, power plants, desalination, Dimona, Knesset, etc. will be razed to the ground. The issue right now is that Israel and the US have hidden their intent to fight a major war up to this point. After the classless ceasefire then assassination they pulled on Nasrallah, similar to luring Soleimani into Iraq and killing him, and total disregard for civilians anywhere (including their own, who will truly pay the price when Israel is flattened, the mask is completely off. There is literally nothing that the empire can do diplomatically to recover from being discredited and exposed so widely. They are no longer capable of diplomacy so must be defeated militarily and everyone knows this now. There is no more wait and see. Iran knows that Israel and the US intend to destroy them no matter what, so they have zero incentive to deescalate now. Iran will suffer. Israel will be destroyed.
Avoiding oil refinery or similar lessons impact to those dependent on it. Think India, China, etc. It lessons the involvement or engagement by others versus the nuclear facilities alternative. By the way, I doubt targeting nuclear facilities will have any impact as they are buried deep below ground. I don't think that'll be much of a difference make-over. Trump suggesting this is to keep others at arms length. Just my opinion.
Fits very well with the discussion of likely targets as Israel seeks to Respond to an Unprovoked Attack on Tel Aviv which Proves Iran is a Terrorist State etc.
Where have all the transformers gone? According to our Ambassador Brink, gone to Ukraine every one (cited near the end of Simplicius’ latest tour de force):
“Last week we provided through @USAID 50 voltage transformers, 9 current transformers, & 80 isolators to Kharkiv's energy distribution system operator to help energy workers undertake urgent repairs to
Kharkiv's electrical grid damaged by Russia's missile and drone attacks.”
Sent through Samantha Power’s USAID, shown sporting a hard hat, and to hell with Ashville.
Yes, I'd like to know that too. Trump seems to be pandering to excess regarding Israel and I think tangentially to Christian Zionists who may form a large voting block. I wonder how much his criminal son in law and his daughter are influencing his reckless commentary.
I posted a link from Fox News, and PDJT's audio on ewe toob while you were typing your comment.
As far as Ivanka, I can say something quite positive and recent about her: she was right there in NC/TN serving with humanitarian aid organizations.
Prior knowledge about her, while her dad was in the White House: Ivanka worked with her dad on a big operation to find and incarcerate child sex traffickers. I forget the name of the operation...they posted big results.
As for the Kushners, that doesn't answer the question of influencing his position on the support of Israel. Kudos are appropriate when the actions are a net positive and on site in the affected areas does speak well, but this is also campaign season, so sorry to be so jaded. My concern is less with Ivanka, although I see her as progressive, it's the son-in-law. I believe him to be just another grifter.
I realize that Pres. Trump has not been bashing Israel. Yet I do question, as Cassander does, him recklessly saying that Iran's nuclear facilities should be hit.
That entire statement attributed to PDJT will send me down a rabbit hole for additional information.
personally, I think that you misinterpret Prof. Mearsheimer's thesis partly inaccurately, I think that when he says that the US wants something, he doesn't mean that the current US deep state establishment actually wants it, but that it should want it from the perspective of the theory of empirical realism
NBC News reports that 'Dozens of additional U.S. fighter jets have been deployed across the Middle East in order to assist Israel in its expected retaliatory attack against Iran'
Some points to consider.
- Iran has twice demonstrated that they can penetrate Israeli air defences.
- Iran is now defended by the world's best air defence system, the S400, manned by Russian operators. Probably why it took them so long to respond - they were waiting until the system was fully operational.
- To mount an effective attack you first have to target air defence systems. However, Russia has stated that an attack on those systems will be viewed as an attack on Russia itself.
- Since the port expansion in Tartus Syria which began in 2017, Russia can now host up to 16 capital ships, including nuclear submarines. Flight time to Israel is less than five minutes for anything launched from that location.
- For the first time, Russia has intercepted Israeli missiles aimed at Syria.
- Netanyahu recently tried to call Putin. Putin refused to take the call.
- Israel's oil supplies, now that the Red Sea is closed, come mainly via pipeline from Azerbaijan through Turkey.
- Azerbaijan has made a formal application to join BRICS.
- Turkey has indicated an interest to join BRICS which will be on the agenda at the upcoming conference in Kazan, beginning Oct 22nd.
Anything that interferes with the upcoming conference, such as an attack on a founding member state (Iran) will be viewed very negatively by Russia and other participants. Turkey is under increasing domestic pressure to shut down that pipeline. If Iran is attacked, Azerbaijan might cut off the oil before Turkey can shut down the pipeline, leading to a serious loss of face for Erdogan.
Israel's attack on Lebanon is not going well in terms of casualties and losses of equipment. Key figures in their military warned against an invasion but they were overruled. The terrain is difficult and the advantage is with the defender who has had ample time to prepare. How long can these loses be sustained?
Israeli citizens are leaving the country in numbers now. Some to avoid military service, others whose commitment to radical Zionism is fading, if it ever existed. Like rational people everywhere, their personal and family safety comes first.
Hezbollah, by contrast, has a virtually unlimited supply of fighters drawn from across the entire Muslim world. In terms of numbers, Israel will soon find itself in the same situation as Ukraine, which now lacks the trained personnel to conduct an effective military campaign.
It looks like Israel has painted itself into a corner. The economy is in disarray, people are leaving and there's no chance of a military victory. The best outcome would be the removal of the current government by their military followed by negotiations to establish peace, but how likely is that? Their last resort, a decision to use nuclear weapons would likely be stopped by their own military as a matter of self preservation, but if not, the response to that would likely be an attack by Russia to remove Israel's capacity to threaten anyone ever again, which is effectively the end of the State of Israel, at least in its current form. As a matter of self-preservation, I would expect the USA to sit that one out.
Also worth mentioning is that China gets a significant amount of its oil from Iran, and anything that interferes with that, such as an attack on Iranian facilities or the closure of the straits of Hormuz will bring them into the conflict.
Thus you have Russia, China and most of the Muslim world (if not their leadership) arrayed against a NATO alliance already feeling the strain of the war in Ukraine, and the USA, who given their open borders of the last few years will likely face internal as well as external attack should they enter the fray. Not a winning hand in my opinion.
One more item for your list. Reports are starting to appear that Iran may have, as it stated, targeted and hit at least some air defense radar sites in Israel. Next time around ...
Very likely I would say. The first barrage was to draw them out and identify their launch and radar sites. That compels them to relocate, which is problematic since the first location is usually the best. I imagine they've moved them by now, but their ability to intercept has been revealed and found wanting by the looks of it.
Another point I failed to mention, which is talk of committing US forces to an invasion of Iran. Not going to happen for the simple reason that unlike Gulf War II, there is nowhere to stage the forces (KSA has already declared neutrality) and no viable invasion route. The best the US can do is send troops to Israel to back fill their forces as their combat elements are depleted and rear echelons are called to the front. Similar to Ukraine, but just as ineffective as they can also be targeted.
Another wild card, which I don't have much information on, is Russian electronic warfare capabilities which apparently have been set up in Iran. If they're as good as rumours suggests, it not only spells trouble for Israel, but for anyone targeting Russia with nuclear weapons. That's puts a whole new spin on MAD, because it would no longer be mutual. Highly speculative, but it's something to keep in mind.
I agree with you, also, all out war allows for a US default on foreign and domestic national debt. The great reset begins!
I have a few friends who feel that Israel should be let off the leash so to speak to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. Take out their nuclear facilities, their bomb making facilities that Oil fields, everything.
One of Trump’s big problems is, he doesn’t understand the geopolitical make up of things. If you bomb Iran and create the kind of devastation that would happen you’re going to bring Russia into this along with China since they’ve made agreements with Iran under BRICS.
Before those planes can get to Iran to bomb it, they will fire their entire arsenal of hypersonic missiles on Israel, regardless of they are civilian or military targets. Hezbollah will do the same from Lebanon by the time it’s all over Israel could be in total shambles.
There are no heroes here in Israel is no hero fighting against terrorism. From what I have read this week and a book I am currently reading. Israel is only interested expanding their territory they originally wanted all the land from the Egyptian border through the trans Jordan for Zionist movement. They don’t care about any of those people and we just soon exterminate every one of them if they could. There is no place for any of these refugees to go. Egypt will not take them and nobody else will either.
The more I read about the Zionist movement in their single minded March to having a Jewish state the more I find that Israel was founded on nothing but murder and terrorism. They have absolutely no moral or ethical high ground whatsoever. They have sacrificed their own people in the cause of their Zionist movement for their own nation. it is really appalling to read the crimes committed and the people killed toward this Machiavellian ending.
Tell your friends that they should go join the Israeli army so they can help.
Seriously though the US and Israel lack the ordnance to wreck Iran in the way that can wreck Lebanon. Plus there are Russian AD systems manned by Russians to contend with. If the retaliation from Israel is escalatory expect to see an order of magnitude larger response. If any sensitive sites are hit like nuclear facilities or there are large numbers of civilian casualties then every high value target in Israel will be hit. All civilian infrastructure - airports, power plants, desalination, Dimona, Knesset, etc. will be razed to the ground. The issue right now is that Israel and the US have hidden their intent to fight a major war up to this point. After the classless ceasefire then assassination they pulled on Nasrallah, similar to luring Soleimani into Iraq and killing him, and total disregard for civilians anywhere (including their own, who will truly pay the price when Israel is flattened, the mask is completely off. There is literally nothing that the empire can do diplomatically to recover from being discredited and exposed so widely. They are no longer capable of diplomacy so must be defeated militarily and everyone knows this now. There is no more wait and see. Iran knows that Israel and the US intend to destroy them no matter what, so they have zero incentive to deescalate now. Iran will suffer. Israel will be destroyed.
Thank you, Mark, for drawing your readers' attention to the piece by Sundance at the Conservative Treehouse.
It is a great place for news, analysis, pithy comments that often include further information, and much more. I highly recommend the site!
Avoiding oil refinery or similar lessons impact to those dependent on it. Think India, China, etc. It lessons the involvement or engagement by others versus the nuclear facilities alternative. By the way, I doubt targeting nuclear facilities will have any impact as they are buried deep below ground. I don't think that'll be much of a difference make-over. Trump suggesting this is to keep others at arms length. Just my opinion.
Fits very well with the discussion of likely targets as Israel seeks to Respond to an Unprovoked Attack on Tel Aviv which Proves Iran is a Terrorist State etc.
Here is the skinny on what PDJT said at the campaign event yesterday, Oct. 5, in Fayetteville, NC:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-israel-should-hit-irans-nuclear-facilities-slamming-bidens-response
He didn't directly say IRAN's nuclear facilities, but I guess you could say it was
implied.
Here is the audio:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bDQZgHqKKm0
The mainstream news media outlets have scooped this up, and they are all running with this ball.
Wonder since he was in Fayetteville, if he was going to overfly the horrific devastation in Ashville etc.
Where have all the transformers gone? According to our Ambassador Brink, gone to Ukraine every one (cited near the end of Simplicius’ latest tour de force):
“Last week we provided through @USAID 50 voltage transformers, 9 current transformers, & 80 isolators to Kharkiv's energy distribution system operator to help energy workers undertake urgent repairs to
Kharkiv's electrical grid damaged by Russia's missile and drone attacks.”
Sent through Samantha Power’s USAID, shown sporting a hard hat, and to hell with Ashville.
Link to Simplicius:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/
Yes, I'd like to know that too. Trump seems to be pandering to excess regarding Israel and I think tangentially to Christian Zionists who may form a large voting block. I wonder how much his criminal son in law and his daughter are influencing his reckless commentary.
I posted a link from Fox News, and PDJT's audio on ewe toob while you were typing your comment.
As far as Ivanka, I can say something quite positive and recent about her: she was right there in NC/TN serving with humanitarian aid organizations.
Prior knowledge about her, while her dad was in the White House: Ivanka worked with her dad on a big operation to find and incarcerate child sex traffickers. I forget the name of the operation...they posted big results.
I saw that.
As for the Kushners, that doesn't answer the question of influencing his position on the support of Israel. Kudos are appropriate when the actions are a net positive and on site in the affected areas does speak well, but this is also campaign season, so sorry to be so jaded. My concern is less with Ivanka, although I see her as progressive, it's the son-in-law. I believe him to be just another grifter.
I realize that Pres. Trump has not been bashing Israel. Yet I do question, as Cassander does, him recklessly saying that Iran's nuclear facilities should be hit.
That entire statement attributed to PDJT will send me down a rabbit hole for additional information.
concur.