Brief ME War Update; Also Russiagate And Geopolitics
Things appear to be tense on the Middle East front of the Global War—duh! Rather than speculate, here we’ll provide what appear to be significant news items. How it all fits together remains to be seen, but lines are being drawn. Interestingly, fault lines may be appearing within the Empire as well as between the Empire and the Rest. Much of what follows is drawn from the Megatron feed, but I’ve excerpted mostly just the substance to keep everything clean and easy to read. Some is simply factual; some tweets that purports to present insider info is clearly contradictory or in conflict with other tweets—suggesting either gaslighting or dueling leaks. Time will tell.
Oct 4
BREAKING:
The US and Israel bombed Sana'a, the capital of Yemen
Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova
6h
The most shocking news recently: China ‘rejected US pleas to co-operate in Houthi crisis in Yemen’. The crisis in the Red Sea has winners and losers when it comes to global supply chains and trade flows. #Velsig #geoeconomics
https://thetimes.com/world/israel-hamas-war/article/china-rejected-us-pleas-to-co-operate-in-houthi-crisis-in-yemen-3t6s69x8z
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:
'Without a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon; Hezbollah will fight until Palestine is at peace. No compromises.'
White House wants to "take advantage" of Israel's "massive blow" to Hezbollah "to push for an election of a new Lebanese president" in the coming days — Axios
Biden on the possibility of attacking the Iranian oil installations:
"If I were in Israel's shoes, I would think of other alternatives"
Trump wants US to hit the Iranian nuclear facilities immediately
"Iranian nuclear facilities are the things you want to hit. It's the biggest risk we have. Biden should've said hit them first, and worry later." - Donald Trump.
Right. What could go wrong?
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
 Pentagon Frustrated Over Israel's Lack of Coordination in Military Operations
Pentagon officials told the New York Times that working with Israel has become increasingly difficult after the decision not to inform the U.S. before launching operations against "existential threats."
Israel initially told Washington the ground operation in Lebanon would be limited, but it has expanded significantly. Additionally, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant informed U.S. Defense Secretary Austin about Nasrallah's elimination after the operation occurred, leaving Austin "shocked."
Washington wasn’t prepared to bolster its defenses in the Middle East in case of retaliation from Iran.
4:48 AM · Oct 5, 2024
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Israel is preparing for a massive attack on Iran.
"The attack on Iran will be serious and significant; we are deep in preparations and are dedicating most of our time to it. It will have consequences for Iran – and they should understand that
We expect significant cooperation in the offensive operation from partner countries in the region" - IDF Source to Israeli Army Radio
5:17 AM · Oct 5, 2024
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
JUST IN: US officials to Yedioth Ahronoth that Israeli attack on Iran is imminent
Macron calls for a halt to arms shipments to Israel
After confirming that France had stopped supplying Israel with weapons, he called on other countries to follow suit to force a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the region:
“I think that today, the priority is that we return to a political solution, that we stop delivering weapons to fight in Gaza.”
@MarioNawfal
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: The most moral army in the world targeting hospitals and schools, as usual.
Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com
Preparing to strike Iran: US General Kurilla, the head of CENTCOM, will be arriving in Israel in next 24 hours, @ynetalerts reports; he is expected to coordinate Israel’s retaliation for Iran’s missile assault. x.com/IsraelRadar_co…
US Air Force C-17 landing in Tel Aviv, US CENTCOM Chief onboard (RCH4133 reg 07-7185)
Now, very briefly, I’ll link to a long post at CTH—it’s an excellent reminder of how America got to where it is, at least in a very proximate sense. Obviously the full historical roots are another long story. The post is an excellent review of Mary McCord’s involvement in the entire Russia Hoax and the Deep State war against Trump, from the initial Russia Hoax to the present. It’s very suggestive about the establishment circling the wagons or, rather, going on offense to expel a foreign body from the Imperial City:
The Mary McCord Discussion Enhances So Many Questions About DOJ Targeting of President Trump
This was totally a Uniparty operation.
One final note. Last night I listened to John Mearsheimer talking with Glenn Greenwald. Mearsheimer repeated his usual narrative: The US is desperate to avoid a Middle East regional war because a war on Iran would serve no US interest. Obviously, the whole question of who or what “the US” is at this point is up for debate. Mearsheimer blames it all on The Israel Lobby and states that the US is, in effect, along for the ride—America does or accepts whatever Israel decides. As usual, he makes a persuasive argument. Nevertheless, I remain unconvinced that that’s the whole story. I continue to believe that the roots of the war on Russia—while incorporating Jewish anti-Russia elements—goes beyond The Israel Lobby all the way back to WW2. In the context of the Global War I continue to argue that there are elements within the Imperial NatSec establishment that see an interest in a war on Iran that goes beyond Israel’s interests alone—seeing it as a difficult but necessary step in the war for global hegemony in opposition to the Eurasian bloc of Russia and China. The destruction of Iran would undermine the entire BRICS movement.
NBC News reports that 'Dozens of additional U.S. fighter jets have been deployed across the Middle East in order to assist Israel in its expected retaliatory attack against Iran'
Some points to consider.
- Iran has twice demonstrated that they can penetrate Israeli air defences.
- Iran is now defended by the world's best air defence system, the S400, manned by Russian operators. Probably why it took them so long to respond - they were waiting until the system was fully operational.
- To mount an effective attack you first have to target air defence systems. However, Russia has stated that an attack on those systems will be viewed as an attack on Russia itself.
- Since the port expansion in Tartus Syria which began in 2017, Russia can now host up to 16 capital ships, including nuclear submarines. Flight time to Israel is less than five minutes for anything launched from that location.
- For the first time, Russia has intercepted Israeli missiles aimed at Syria.
- Netanyahu recently tried to call Putin. Putin refused to take the call.
- Israel's oil supplies, now that the Red Sea is closed, come mainly via pipeline from Azerbaijan through Turkey.
- Azerbaijan has made a formal application to join BRICS.
- Turkey has indicated an interest to join BRICS which will be on the agenda at the upcoming conference in Kazan, beginning Oct 22nd.
Anything that interferes with the upcoming conference, such as an attack on a founding member state (Iran) will be viewed very negatively by Russia and other participants. Turkey is under increasing domestic pressure to shut down that pipeline. If Iran is attacked, Azerbaijan might cut off the oil before Turkey can shut down the pipeline, leading to a serious loss of face for Erdogan.
Israel's attack on Lebanon is not going well in terms of casualties and losses of equipment. Key figures in their military warned against an invasion but they were overruled. The terrain is difficult and the advantage is with the defender who has had ample time to prepare. How long can these loses be sustained?
Israeli citizens are leaving the country in numbers now. Some to avoid military service, others whose commitment to radical Zionism is fading, if it ever existed. Like rational people everywhere, their personal and family safety comes first.
Hezbollah, by contrast, has a virtually unlimited supply of fighters drawn from across the entire Muslim world. In terms of numbers, Israel will soon find itself in the same situation as Ukraine, which now lacks the trained personnel to conduct an effective military campaign.
It looks like Israel has painted itself into a corner. The economy is in disarray, people are leaving and there's no chance of a military victory. The best outcome would be the removal of the current government by their military followed by negotiations to establish peace, but how likely is that? Their last resort, a decision to use nuclear weapons would likely be stopped by their own military as a matter of self preservation, but if not, the response to that would likely be an attack by Russia to remove Israel's capacity to threaten anyone ever again, which is effectively the end of the State of Israel, at least in its current form. As a matter of self-preservation, I would expect the USA to sit that one out.
Also worth mentioning is that China gets a significant amount of its oil from Iran, and anything that interferes with that, such as an attack on Iranian facilities or the closure of the straits of Hormuz will bring them into the conflict.
Thus you have Russia, China and most of the Muslim world (if not their leadership) arrayed against a NATO alliance already feeling the strain of the war in Ukraine, and the USA, who given their open borders of the last few years will likely face internal as well as external attack should they enter the fray. Not a winning hand in my opinion.