Ukraine just launched 4 missiles at Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant! Russian authorities report no excess radiation detected. The situation is under control.
Concur. Like I said yeterday Mark. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese respond to this. Let us know if you get intel on the chinese navy heading that way. I would be logical to "protect" chinese investments and interests in that area. That is what we always did in the past when our spheres of interest were threatened.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are already Chinese ships in the region. They do regular exercises with the Iranians and Russians in that area. Have done so for years.
Someone was impressed by the Iranian demonstration:
At a meeting in Doha, representatives of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait assured Iran of the Gulf States' absolute neutrality in the ongoing conflict, and that they will not allow the U.S. to use their airbases against Iran – Reuters
Be interesting to see if they can actually hold firm. US is not going to just say " Oh OK, no problem, we will find another route" Note, Jordan is conspicuously missing from declaring neutrality
I think the Gulf states have made their choice and they are not stupid. Jordan is so committed to the west that it is in a "no man's land." There is no room for it to go against the U.S. and there is no room for it to go against the Palestinians. It is integral to the supply route to Israel and will not be seen as the government that turned that supply route off.
Egypt is in a similar situation but it is not integral (blame-able) for turning off a supply route to Israel (the Houthis can take that blame) and it can turn to the BRICS for support financially if it can summon the courage to do so.
Thanks for the link. It often occurs to me that King Abdullah is really between a rock and a hard place. Always trying to maintain balance on a political and geographical tightrope.
With his background and education how could he not be pro western
Yeah, I don't envy him. He has not had a moment's rest and will not have any rest going forward either, that is for sure.
Just to clarify, in providing the Lee Smith / "strong horse" link I didn't mean to imply that the U.S. bears no responsibility for the current ME problems - far from it. It is just that the whole region is such a cutthroat game of survival that any allegiances made will be short-lived depending on the interests of the parties involved and their perceptions of the strengths of their counterparts and the immediate repercussions of their decisions.
Think about it. Did the Israelis set this up? You want to kill this guy. You know where his HQ is. But how to ensure he and his leadership are at the HQ? You got to make sure he and the leadership are there at a certain time so you do not hit an empty box.
So maybe you also give him a time hack on when he needs to agree to the cease fire or the offer is gone.
Ok so now you offer a cease fire, knowing he will have a war council to discuss it.
They think they are safe to all meet at the HQ because Bibi is at the UN and all is ok. Then Hezbollah replies to the cease fire terms or asks for clarifications. . So if your assumption is right the Hezbollah leadership is all present at their HQ. the game is set.....you attack.
You shaped the situation.
You got your target at the known location at a particular time that you maneuvered him into. Then you kill him.
One Russian plane, registered to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, just left Beirut; a second jet, from the State Airline Special Flight Squadron (they fly the bureaucrats all over) is over Syria. Looks as if a lot of flights out of both Tel Aviv & Beirut are cancelled today, but Red Wings is still running flights out of Tel Aviv going to Sochi & Moscow. I'm betting there's no seats left on those flights.
Yep. There's no commercial flights out of Beirut going to Russia; most are going to other areas of the ME. The plane leaving Beirut is a Ilyushin Il-76TDP, its a big 'ol workhorse & can accommodate a lot of folks & their carry-on bag. I'll be curious to see if they make multiple flights out of both places.
https://youtu.be/LWGfrDq5SC4?si=litAvAb8KxHrfM61
I think this is an interesting video. My beliefs has been challenged 😂 But one needs to stay open.
The President of Iran has sent a message to the United States via Qatar:
"Iran has abandoned its strategic patience and one-sided self-restraint and will respond harshly to any Israeli retaliation."
Wow.... no mincing words on that one.
It seems like very directly and starkly worded warnings might be the only way to get through to these knuckleheads.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Ukraine just launched 4 missiles at Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant! Russian authorities report no excess radiation detected. The situation is under control.
Just heard Zhou saying he hasn't spoken to Netanyahu.
Chas Freeman says Putin has refused calls from Netanyahu and is instead providing "some air defense to Lebanon."
The United States and Israel are discussing the option of striking Iran's oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf – Bloomberg
*If they do this, not a drop of oil will leave the Middle East anymore, causing a massive oil shortage in Europe and a huge spike in the price.
Concur. Like I said yeterday Mark. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese respond to this. Let us know if you get intel on the chinese navy heading that way. I would be logical to "protect" chinese investments and interests in that area. That is what we always did in the past when our spheres of interest were threatened.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are already Chinese ships in the region. They do regular exercises with the Iranians and Russians in that area. Have done so for years.
Thanks
Someone was impressed by the Iranian demonstration:
At a meeting in Doha, representatives of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait assured Iran of the Gulf States' absolute neutrality in the ongoing conflict, and that they will not allow the U.S. to use their airbases against Iran – Reuters
Very different than the Duran represented two days ago...
Be interesting to see if they can actually hold firm. US is not going to just say " Oh OK, no problem, we will find another route" Note, Jordan is conspicuously missing from declaring neutrality
Ever hear about the "strong horse" theory?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Strong_Horse
I think the Gulf states have made their choice and they are not stupid. Jordan is so committed to the west that it is in a "no man's land." There is no room for it to go against the U.S. and there is no room for it to go against the Palestinians. It is integral to the supply route to Israel and will not be seen as the government that turned that supply route off.
Egypt is in a similar situation but it is not integral (blame-able) for turning off a supply route to Israel (the Houthis can take that blame) and it can turn to the BRICS for support financially if it can summon the courage to do so.
Thanks for the link. It often occurs to me that King Abdullah is really between a rock and a hard place. Always trying to maintain balance on a political and geographical tightrope.
With his background and education how could he not be pro western
Yeah, I don't envy him. He has not had a moment's rest and will not have any rest going forward either, that is for sure.
Just to clarify, in providing the Lee Smith / "strong horse" link I didn't mean to imply that the U.S. bears no responsibility for the current ME problems - far from it. It is just that the whole region is such a cutthroat game of survival that any allegiances made will be short-lived depending on the interests of the parties involved and their perceptions of the strengths of their counterparts and the immediate repercussions of their decisions.
Think about it. Did the Israelis set this up? You want to kill this guy. You know where his HQ is. But how to ensure he and his leadership are at the HQ? You got to make sure he and the leadership are there at a certain time so you do not hit an empty box.
So maybe you also give him a time hack on when he needs to agree to the cease fire or the offer is gone.
Ok so now you offer a cease fire, knowing he will have a war council to discuss it.
They think they are safe to all meet at the HQ because Bibi is at the UN and all is ok. Then Hezbollah replies to the cease fire terms or asks for clarifications. . So if your assumption is right the Hezbollah leadership is all present at their HQ. the game is set.....you attack.
You shaped the situation.
You got your target at the known location at a particular time that you maneuvered him into. Then you kill him.
Dave DeCamp @DecampDave
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah agreed to a ceasefire right before Israel killed him
https://x.com/i/status/1841594036999602333
One Russian plane, registered to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, just left Beirut; a second jet, from the State Airline Special Flight Squadron (they fly the bureaucrats all over) is over Syria. Looks as if a lot of flights out of both Tel Aviv & Beirut are cancelled today, but Red Wings is still running flights out of Tel Aviv going to Sochi & Moscow. I'm betting there's no seats left on those flights.
Evacuations.
Yep. There's no commercial flights out of Beirut going to Russia; most are going to other areas of the ME. The plane leaving Beirut is a Ilyushin Il-76TDP, its a big 'ol workhorse & can accommodate a lot of folks & their carry-on bag. I'll be curious to see if they make multiple flights out of both places.