Breaking Middle East Events, Iranian Analysis Of The Iranian Missile Strike 10/3/24
Another busy day.
Obviously there will be expert analysis of the significance of the Iranian missile strike on Israeli military facilities coming out over time, although events are likely to catch up with that and leave it behind. It now appears that, far from being a “surprise” attack, this was another Iranian “demonstration” or warning strike, to showcase their capabilities and prevent a wider war. Thus, the likely significance will not lie in equipment destroyed or personnel killed, but rather in the ability to penetrate air defenses of the Anglo-Franco-Zionist sphere with accuracy. Initial reports indicate that, far from being “ineffective”, the demonstration was, again, quite impressive. Importantly, Iran didn’t bother with decoy drones and cruise missiles this time around—it sent its ballistic missiles right into the teeth of the AD systems, after signalling that they were coming. Below is an Iranian analysis. It’s not official and is necessarily based on partial information.
But first this BREAKING NEWS—it isn’t clear whether Russian facilities were struck, note the words “the vicinity”, but this is very worrying:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Russia has just ordered its citizens to immediately leave Israel after Israeli airstrikes attacked the vicinity of Russia's Khmeimim base in Syria.
In light of the extremely tense situation in the region, the Russian ambassador in Tel Aviv recommended that citizens in Israel consider leaving the country "while such opportunities exist." He said this in an interview with TASS.
1.5 Milion Russians live in Israel. Russia is warning it's people to get out before it's too late. Something big is coming.
Russia also begins to evacuate citizens from Lebanon.
6:20 AM · Oct 3, 2024
MAJOR UPDATE? If this is correct, then my suspicion that this was a Syrian facility “near” the Russian base is borne out. HOWEVER, still super concerning—per Macgregor, nothing happens that the US doesn’t allow:
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof
Israel reportedly struck a warehouse of Iranian and Syrian weapons (you can see missiles or rockets cooking off) in the town of Jableh near the main Russian base of Hmeimim in Syria. The base itself has not been touched, per Russian accounts, and the Russians apparently tried to shoot down Israeli missiles. https://t.me/rybar/64077
On to the analysis:
The problem is the 50 year old aircraft in the background
The reality that airpower-centric Israel must resort to counter-value strikes against civilian infrastructure.., because it lacks the means to degrade Iran's military capability
Quote
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian @manniefabian
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says Israel will respond to the Iranian missile attack, vowing that the military has the capability to "reach and strike any point in the Middle East."
"And those of our enemies who have not understood this until now, will understand it soon," he adds, during a visit to the Tel Nof Airbase.
Patarames @Pataramesh
Yesterday night might easily have been a $3 billion dollar night in terms of ballistic-missile interceptors spent (for US/Israel )
Patarames @Pataramesh
Don't cope
No, those bright flashes are not interceptions
Those are the empty separated boosters reaching maximum dynamic pressure "max-Q"
 Now I really wonder if a Fattah-1 went for the AN/TPY-2 radar, since  missile defenses are totally overwhelmed
From OSINTtechnical [video]
11:12 PM · Oct 2, 2024
Patarames @Pataramesh
Ok, its now clear that some  missiles had pin-point accuracy
 The capability to penetrate Israel's missile defenses at its most vital airbase;
 And hit anything with point-accuracy;
 Should send a message to Netanyahu of what could have happened if the  decision was made
 But I doubt this reality is more important for him than his political survival
Iran is really restraining itself here
Quote
Mehdi H. @mhmiranusa
Two precise hits can be seen in this @planet image of Israeli Nevatim Air Base after Iranian missile barrage.
One to an aircraft hangar, another to a road.
Reasonable likelihood that aircraft in the open were targeted by warheads utilizing air-burst mode
Using the missile's inertial measurement sensors, such air-burst explosion don't leave large craters, but have greater destructive power against soft targets
Patarames @Pataramesh
Let me set the record straight:
What you see below is the most powerful conventional strike in the history of mankind
 Pin-point accuracy after 1400km flight including harsh glide
 2003 Shock and awe of US: Go sit on the backseat
From War Monitor [video]
Patarames
@Pataramesh
Oh, let me say that I speak about military strikes against military targets
 Mass terror bombings like performed against German, Japanese and Vietnamese cities are excluded
Update: The hangar hit in Nevatim imagery is one of the Israeli 122nd Surveillance "Nachshon" Squadron. We see these planes spying on Lebanon, Syria & Gaza often (See replies) One of these (e.g. Gulfstream Nahshon Eitam, AWACS plane) costs approximately $350 millions.
Again, even supposing this was a Syrian facility, as is now being reported, this is still very concerning:
MenchOsint MenchOsint
 Syria:
Israel attacked a depot around Russia-operated Khmeimim Air Base, Latakia.
Syrian and Russian Buk and Pantsir Air defense batteries participated in the confrontation multiple israeli Drones intercepted
The attack was carried out in successive waves and the confrontation continued from 04:00 am until approximately 04:50.
Bear in mind what Macgregor said yesterday: Nothing happens unless the US allows it. Russia knows this:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
NEW:
Ex-Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel just hours before his assassination — Beirut
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib made the claim:
"We informed US and French representatives about the decision,” TRT World reported.
Netyanahu decided to kill him because he did not want the ethnic cleansing in Gaza to stop.
[The FM also stated that Nasrallah had been told that Netanyahu had also agreed. Nasrallah was meeting with military branch of Hezbollah to finalize details, when US/Israel struck.]
Someone was impressed by the Iranian demonstration:
At a meeting in Doha, representatives of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait assured Iran of the Gulf States' absolute neutrality in the ongoing conflict, and that they will not allow the U.S. to use their airbases against Iran – Reuters
The President of Iran has sent a message to the United States via Qatar:
"Iran has abandoned its strategic patience and one-sided self-restraint and will respond harshly to any Israeli retaliation."