For all I know, by the time I publish this post Iran will have launched some sort of retaliatory strike against Israel for Israel’s attack on an Iranian diplomatic establishment. That’s not the point. The point is that time is on Iran’s side, and therefore the timing and nature of any retaliatory action will be Iran’s decision. Like Russia, Iran has a long tradition of chess playing. That means step by step preparations, not precipitous action before all the pieces are in place. So all the US “intel assessments” that Iran will launch this or that type of strike today if they didn’t yesterday and will strike tomorrow if they don’t today—take those with a grain of salt. Those assessments may or may not come to fruition, but if they do it will have been on Iran’s timing.
"The fog of war is thick, and laden with obscurities that make it near impossible to decipher what is real, what is disinformation, and what is mere posturing in the never-ending chess match of geopolitical game theory.
"Israel attacks an Iranian embassy in Syria; Iran vows revenge; Israel vows to escalate if Iran follows through.
"The Biden regime is talking out of both sides of its mouth, stating that it doesn't plan to get involved and demanding a 6-8 week ceasefire agreement from Iran, then turns around and pronounces ‘iron-clad’ support of Israel in a potential war against Iran.
"Part of me thinks this is the foreign politicking of a dementia-ridden geriatric. Part of me thinks this chaotic messaging bears the hallmarks of the Trump presidency, which was able to subvert the scheming of the media with said chaos.
"In any event, the chaotic messaging is certainly stoking enough confusion to delay kinetic escalation—at least, for the time being.
"While the CIA and Mossad assure us that and Iranian missile strike will come at any moment, nothing has yet to transpire. Iran has also issued a statement saying that a retaliation would not be necessary, if the UN Security Council would simply condemn Israel's actions.
"Can any of these statements be trusted? Of course not. This is war, anons. Fifth-generation war.”
Excellent analysis. Absolutely agree that time--and all the options--are on the Iranian side of the ledger.
Share your suspicion that the US would much prefer the "proportionate" to the asymmetric options. Times of Israel reporting that CENTCOM chief, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, met this morning with Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, at an airbase in central Israel. "Proportionate" response? Yeah, we've got scalable packages for that. Asymmetric? Not so much...
Given the instant gratification to which we in the West have become so accustomed in this social-media age, Middle Eastern sources are having a field day with our impatience. "Breaking: US to issue warning within next 24-48 hours of imminent retaliation to occur within 24-48 hours after that" and similar spoofs.
Only time will tell, and people need to get comfortable with that.
Badlands Media sums it up nicely. https://badlands.substack.com/p/badlands-news-brief-a38
"The fog of war is thick, and laden with obscurities that make it near impossible to decipher what is real, what is disinformation, and what is mere posturing in the never-ending chess match of geopolitical game theory.
"Israel attacks an Iranian embassy in Syria; Iran vows revenge; Israel vows to escalate if Iran follows through.
"The Biden regime is talking out of both sides of its mouth, stating that it doesn't plan to get involved and demanding a 6-8 week ceasefire agreement from Iran, then turns around and pronounces ‘iron-clad’ support of Israel in a potential war against Iran.
"Part of me thinks this is the foreign politicking of a dementia-ridden geriatric. Part of me thinks this chaotic messaging bears the hallmarks of the Trump presidency, which was able to subvert the scheming of the media with said chaos.
"In any event, the chaotic messaging is certainly stoking enough confusion to delay kinetic escalation—at least, for the time being.
"While the CIA and Mossad assure us that and Iranian missile strike will come at any moment, nothing has yet to transpire. Iran has also issued a statement saying that a retaliation would not be necessary, if the UN Security Council would simply condemn Israel's actions.
"Can any of these statements be trusted? Of course not. This is war, anons. Fifth-generation war.”
Oh. You're relying on Reuters.
Grain of salt, yes. Fog of war, we don't need too much more...plenty coming from DC.
Excellent and useful analysis of a very volatile, high-stakes situation with lots of variables / unknowns. Thank you.
Excellent analysis. Absolutely agree that time--and all the options--are on the Iranian side of the ledger.
Share your suspicion that the US would much prefer the "proportionate" to the asymmetric options. Times of Israel reporting that CENTCOM chief, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, met this morning with Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, at an airbase in central Israel. "Proportionate" response? Yeah, we've got scalable packages for that. Asymmetric? Not so much...
Given the instant gratification to which we in the West have become so accustomed in this social-media age, Middle Eastern sources are having a field day with our impatience. "Breaking: US to issue warning within next 24-48 hours of imminent retaliation to occur within 24-48 hours after that" and similar spoofs.
Only time will tell, and people need to get comfortable with that.
After all, who are the real experts in staging false flags?
Will the Israelis be dancing soon?