A Word Of Caution: Time Is On Iran's Side

For all I know, by the time I publish this post Iran will have launched some sort of retaliatory strike against Israel for Israel’s attack on an Iranian diplomatic establishment. That’s not the point. The point is that time is on Iran’s side, and therefore the timing and nature of any retaliatory action will be Iran’s decision. Like Russia, Iran has a long tradition of chess playing. That means step by step preparations, not precipitous action before all the pieces are in place. So all the US “intel assessments” that Iran will launch this or that type of strike today if they didn’t yesterday and will strike tomorrow if they don’t today—take those with a grain of salt. Those assessments may or may not come to fruition, but if they do it will have been on Iran’s timing.

As an example, I would argue that Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic establishment in Damascus was done on Iran’s timing. Recall that Israel has been attacking Iranian targets in the region in order to instigate a major regional war that would draw in the US, but Israel has been getting no Iranian response. There have been some responses from groups that receive Iranian support, but as of the time of writing those groups—including Hezbollah—have not utilized the type of advanced systems that Iran possesses and could provide. This time biding while the Hamas resistance and Houthi blockade wore Israel and the US down forced Israel’s hand:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

Incredible article in Haaretz: "Israel Has Been Defeated – a Total Defeat. The war's aims won't be achieved, the hostages won't be returned through military pressure, security won't be restored and Israel's international ostracism won't end"

Saying what can't be said: Israel has been defeated – a total defeat

5:44 AM · Apr 12, 2024

Al Mayadeen English @MayadeenEnglish

"Israel's" attack on the Iranian consulate in #Syria was by no means a calculated step. If anything, as @Partisangirl shows, it's an act of desperation.

Partisan girl is correct that the Israeli attack was an act of desperation, but not for the reason she gives. The attack was a transgressive act that broke all rules of war and relations between nations—that shows the desperation behind the decision to strike in that way. But the desperation was precisely to goad Iran into the counter attack that would have drawn the American Empire into the major regional war Israel is seeking. Previous attempts to goad Iran into action on Israeli terms had all failed, so this unprecedented act was undertaken in the belief that Iran’s hand could be forced. But that means, paradoxically, that Iran’s time biding had forced Israel’s hand and once again exposed the lawlessness of the Zionist regime to all the world.

Now Iran is getting all its pieces in place. What sort of pieces? Well, the US has been suggesting that it would join Israel in attacking Iran. Yesterday Iran’s foreign minister met with his counterparts in the Arab nations of the Persian Gulf. Today Qatar and the UAE announced that they would not permit US attacks on Iran from their soil. The US shot right back:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

"US does not expect to be drawn into war but predicts attack by Iran against Israel"

This is quite extraordinary, because it's literally the US saying it will let Iran strike Israel without getting involved in the fighting themselves.

There are numerous reports that Israel did not notify the US ahead of their unprecedented bombing of Iran's consulate. A bombing that was likely an attempt by Israel to provoke retaliation by Iran and force the US to get involved, in order to change the whole dynamic of a conflict for which, let's face it, Israel is currently looking at strategic defeat.

It's an hypothesis but this is probably the US seeing through this and effectively telling Iran "as soon as you give Israel a correction that's proportional to the Damascus strike, you're good to go". Or it could also very well be a trick by the US, tempting Iran to act and then use this as casus belli for a larger war

I suspect we'll have the answer quite soon (or never if Iran ends up not doing anything). https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-does-not-expect-be-drawn-into-war-predicts-attack-by-iran-against-israel-2024-04-11/…

11:03 AM · Apr 12, 2024

Oh.

OTOH, perhaps the US actually, even desperately, wants Iran to launch a “proportionate” military response. I don’t know, but I suspect that the US would greatly prefer that to an “asymmetric” response—something like a selective closure of the Straits of Hormuz, or some similar economic escalation. Perhaps provision of more capable weaponry to the Houthis or Iraqi militias. Again, the point is that we don’t know.

This could also happen. Is the US up for a proportional response to an act like this?

Iran has warned the US that if it interferes, its bases will be struck

Iran has sent a message to the U.S. through several Arab countries, that if they interfere in Iran's response against Israel, U.S. bases in the region will be struck – Three U.S. Officials told Axios

This sounds like a tit for tat military response is in mind, but on reflection that isn’t necessarily the case. It could also be an asymmetric response that would have a much wider effect on Israel’s Western support system.

Time is on Iran’s side, and Iran has escalation dominance. The Neocons and Israel are the ones acting out of desperation.

No doubt we’ll hear more later today. Meanwhile, via Megatron, pressure on the Empire continues:

Russian forces have arrived in Niger and will train local military personnel

Niger became the second country after Burkina Faso in which the Russian forces began operating.

They are there at the invitation of Niger's new government, which has expelled French and American forces from the country after years of draining its resources.

The Neocolonial West is slowly being forced back on its own resources.