I picked this story up from Red State. The WSJ did their last big poll on the electorate back in August. Now, with a week still to go before the Midterms, they’ve come out with their latest poll. They talk a bit about the big shift among Hispanic voters, but the biggest shift of all is among the crucial suburban women demographic:
The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.
Now, we’ve been discussing the possibility that the latest polls are capturing snapshots of a trend—discrete moments in a gradual shift. Obviously, something was going on across the country during the two months between the WSJ’s two polling snapshots. What could prove crucial is that, historically, undecided voters or waverers tend to make their minds up shortly before the election. In fact, they either make their minds up, or they don’t vote at all. With the country in the grip of multiple crises, that last option seems not as likely. And if the trend over the past two months holds, this next week could flip close races from incumbents to challengers. That’s what often happens when people are upset with the status quo.
Here’s a good example of a trend from another Red State article, but there are multiple possibilities of this sort across the country—with “closing week” in front of us:
A new Trafalgar Poll gives New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin a slim lead over Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul. In this poll, rated A- by the left-leaning fivethirtyeight.com, shows Zeldin leading 48.4% to 47.6%. While this number is well within the margin of error, two months ago, Hochul was leading by five points, and a month ago, she was ahead by two points.
With these dynamics at work and with the problem of polling an electorate that’s reluctant to voice its opinions, upsets should probably be expected. We shall see. This final week can seem like an eternity when the trend is working against you. Trends like waves tend to just keep going in the same direction.
Steve Turley finds more evidence for this trend among figures like Bill Maher and Joe Rogan. This is a fun watch.
https://youtu.be/Kwra3Q_Ho6E
Remember polling has always been a democratic party weapon. Fake or biased polling to show our guy is ahead when the reality is she/he is even or behind. Also, our guy is ahead so there is no point Republicans, don't bother voting, it's pointless. They are masters at it. Just another example of how the democrats suppress the vote.