It's a very full, number heavy analysis. Shipwreckedcrew's basic point is that the pollsters are not seeing the long term trend in voter behavior: Obama Headed To Philadephia, and the Reason is in the Numbers — Bad Numbers for Joe Biden Here's what that means. It's well known that a fair number of states that regularly go Republican actually have far more voters who are registered Dem than are registered Republican. The clear implication from that fact is that registered Dems are far more likely to cross over and vote GOP than vice versa. What SWC shows in his article is that that trend has--over the last several election cycles, including the Obama elections--been trending ever more against the Dems. You see that in the percentage of registered Dems who vote Dem versus the percentage of GOPers who vote GOP. The data consistently that ever more Dems are crossing over and that GOPers are growing ever more loyal than before to their brand:
UPDATED: Wow! SWC Has Called PA For Trump
UPDATED: Wow! SWC Has Called PA For Trump
UPDATED: Wow! SWC Has Called PA For Trump
It's a very full, number heavy analysis. Shipwreckedcrew's basic point is that the pollsters are not seeing the long term trend in voter behavior: Obama Headed To Philadephia, and the Reason is in the Numbers — Bad Numbers for Joe Biden Here's what that means. It's well known that a fair number of states that regularly go Republican actually have far more voters who are registered Dem than are registered Republican. The clear implication from that fact is that registered Dems are far more likely to cross over and vote GOP than vice versa. What SWC shows in his article is that that trend has--over the last several election cycles, including the Obama elections--been trending ever more against the Dems. You see that in the percentage of registered Dems who vote Dem versus the percentage of GOPers who vote GOP. The data consistently that ever more Dems are crossing over and that GOPers are growing ever more loyal than before to their brand: