Worst Intel Failure Since WW2

If you think about that, it’s pretty big claim to make—even regarding such a large scale debacle as America’s war on Russia. Nevertheless, Alexander Mercouris made that claim yesterday and, while it’s a big claim, it’s defensible. Before Mercouris arrived at that conclusion in a monologue with the unwieldy title EU Leaders Isolate Macron, Scrounge MidEast/Africa for Shells; Ukr May Coup Rumours; Rus Orlovka, he spends a good deal of time addressing a topic that I dealt with earlier in the day—the ridiculous notion that the EU/NATO would intervene in Ukraine to stop Russia from rolling up to the Polish border. That idea was advanced by, among others, Andrew Korybko, based on some pretty crazy statements from Tiny Manny Macron. The basic idea was to talk Poland into commiting national suicide for the benefit of French elites, whose ass is chapped because Russia kicked them out of Africa. At the EU summit in Paris it turns out that neither the Poles nor anyone else in Europe is nearly stupid enough to fall for this You first, we’ll be right behind you! gag.

A major portion of the hour+ video is devoted to speculation about the NYT times article about the CIA involvement in Ukraine since way back when. The official date is 2014, but if you think that was the start of Neocon meddling in Ukraine then the NYT has a bridge near their offices that they want to sell you. That reality points to the reality of just how big an intel failure this has been. Or Neocon wishful thinking chickens coming home to roost. It’s a complete mess. And, again as we discussed yesterday, the Ruling Class in DC is starting to scramble for some sort of an exit ramp.

That brings us to the final ten minutes or so, in which Mercouris makes some very incisive points about this debacle.

I'm going to finish my video by just touching on a few more points.

Firstly, Jack Rasmus, who is a retired academic, a notable leftwing writer, has done a masterly piece putting together all the factors in the war. The extent to which the Russians have outproduced Ukraine and the extent to which this means that the war, in effect, is all but lost for Ukraine.

For those of us not familiar with Rasmus—an economist—it may be well to offer some background. The article Mercouris is referring to is this:

Ukraine War and the Ghost of Clausewitz

It’s a thorough, well written article, although it may not be news for most readers.

But here’s a bit that will tell you more about Rasmus as an economist:

Monopoly power versus purchasing power

For example, many analysts consider invention a "more or less costless store of knowledge, captured by monopoly capital and protected in order to make it secret and a 'rare and scarce commodity', for sale at monopoly prices. So far as invention is concerned, a price is put on them not because they are scarce but in order to make them scarce to those who want to use them." Patent monopolies raise share prices above tangible labor value. The difference between labor-value and monopoly-value raises goods prices, and is collected as "profit" by intermediaries who have contributed nothing to earn it.

Analysts generally agree that such conditions typically result in a deficiency of effective demand. Labor does not earn enough to buy what enterprises produce. According to Jack Rasmus, author of The Trillion Dollar Income Shift, in June 2006, investment bank Goldman Sachs reported: "The most important contribution to the higher profit margins over the past five years has been a decline in Labor's share of national income."

I’m not an economist, but maybe that explains out sourcing the manufacturing base, which doesn’t bode well for the West in the long term—which we may be approaching. BTW, I couldn’t find Rasmus as the author of that book, , but I did find him as the author of The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump, Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Few, and similar works.

But, on to Mercouris’ second point!

The second point I'm going to make is a personal one and it goes back to this massive intelligence operation that the Americans have been conducting in Ukraine alongside the Ukrainians. I said in my video that I made two days ago how this will have deeply alarmed and angered the Russians and, in fact, the [NYT] article speaks of a meeting between Putin and his intelligence chiefs in 2021 in which they complained to him about what was going on in Ukraine.

Here I disagree. I very much doubt that the NYT article in February, 2024, “alarmed and angered the Russians,” for the simple fact that Mercouris cites: The Russians knew what we were up to years ago. Only in the fevered imagination of the Neocons and CIA analysts was America pulling a fast one on Russia. No doubt Russia became alarmed and angered, but the moment of Russian alarm and anger at our strategerizing came many years ago—probably beginning as early as the war on Serbia. You can thank Hillary for much of this. On the other hand, the Russians may well have had a good laugh over that NYT article. They’ve been preparing for this moment for a long time.

But there is another point which I don't think anybody has made, but it is touched on to some extent in Jack Rasmus's article--which is: What did this operation in the end achieve? It produced a certain amount of intelligence--which turned out to be wrong, which created political crisis in the United States following the 2016 election, giving spice to allegations of collusion which subsequently turned out to be untrue and which multiple investigations were unable to corroborate. It caused anger in Russia and was undoubtedly seen by Russians as confirming that the situation in Ukraine was a threat to themselves. It resulted in various James Bond type activities which the Americans say they disapprove of. But what in the end was achieved? The big story of this entire conflict, the single biggest story, is the extent to which the United States Intelligence Community got Russia completely wrong. They massively underestimated the size, diversity, sophistication, and flexibility of the Russian economy. As a result they launched an economic war against Russia which has failed utterly. They completely underestimated the resilience of the Russian military and the solidity of Putin's government.

Alex Christophorou and I have discussed in many places how this constitutes the single biggest intelligence failure since the Second World War. So surely it would have been better if the United States Intelligence Community had been more focused on intelligence gathering, piecing together real facts about Russia, its economy, its society, its political system, its industrial base, its technology base. Those kind of things, instead of getting involved in these covert operations which have achieved nothing except to infuriate the Russian bear. That's the second point I want to make.

OK, so why didn’t these crazies focus on actual intelligence gathering instead of James Bondish fantasies of Global Empire? See below—as David Sacks will tell you, these people won’t give you a straight answer. It’s all lies, all the way down, but count on this: There’s a nefarious and false ideology behind it—a Trotskyite Neocon dream of subjugating Russia and ruling the world.

The third point is, I want to draw attention to what I think is one of the greatest tweets about the Ukraine war made by anyone, which has been made by David Sacks--and I'm going to read it out. He says this:

A WAR OF LIES

The war in Ukraine is based on lies — lies about how it started, how it’s going, and how it will end.

We are told that Ukraine is winning when in fact it is losing. We are told that the war makes NATO stronger when in fact it is depleting it. We are told that Ukraine’s biggest problem is a lack of funds from the U.S. Congress when in fact the West can’t produce enough ammunition — a problem that will take years to fix. We are told that Russia is suffering greater casualties when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers — another problem money can’t fix.

We are told that the world is with us when in fact the Global Majority believes U.S. policy is the height of folly. We are told that there is no opportunity to make peace when in fact we have rejected multiple opportunities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine keeps fighting, it will improve its negotiating position when in fact the terms will only get much worse than what was already available and rejected.

That seems to be, at a minimum, what at least some GOPer senators have realized—America needs a negotiated settlement to save face and to obtain some breathing space to try to get our house in order.

Nevertheless the lies will succeed in dragging out the war. Congress will appropriate more funds. Russia will take more territory. Ukraine will mobilize more young men and women to feed into the meat grinder. Discontent will mount. Eventually there will be a crisis in Kiev and the Zelensky government will be toppled.

And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making, the liars will say “well we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having smeared anyone who told the truth as puppets for the enemy, the liars will say “We did our best. We stood up to Putin.”

In fact, they will claim, we would have succeeded but for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, as they moved onto Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The lies are comprehensive — but they will work. [End]

I have to say I find that one of the most powerful one of the most moving one of the most humane and one of the most correct statements anyone has made over the course of this war. I am speechless reading it. I have nothing further to say.

My own view is that the coming crisis will be too big for all of this to come true. In particular, I don’t believe the US will be left in any position to be able to move on to the next war. The Neocons have destroyed NATO and exposed US military vulnerability. The Middle East wars are exposing the evil that lurks in our Ruling Class. America remains powerful, but Americans can still screw that up. Much depends on the coming election.

BTW, I’m writing while listening to The Duran guys and Tom Luongo. So good I’ll undoubtedly relisten.