Let’s start out with Will Schryver, defending his past prognostications and sketching out a thumbnail view of what’s coming in Ukraine from a military standpoint. At the end of September Schryver basically saw the war in Ukraine as finished for Ukraine. It has only continued thanks to massive infusions of NATO materiel—and men. Ukraine’s losses have been horrendous, but once the expected Russian winter offensive begins those losses may fall upon the NATO contingents as well. If that happens then NATO’s and the US’s resolve will be sorely tested. I take it that the top levels of Western regimes have been presented with this likelihood by their militaries, and that that realization is what’s behind the attempts of the West to bluster Russia into negotiations. My guess is that the collective West, in the face of this sobering dilemma, knows that their publics have no stomach for this type of war.
2023 will indeed be an absolute doozy. As Martin Armstrong is fond of saying, there has never been a worse set of leaders in the West than at the moment. Only Orban comes out with any credit. The rest are evil fools. The place to watch will be here in Europe. We're a docile bunch, but I can't see the Euroweenies taking this forever. On the one hand, we have Von der Lying promising war crimes tribunals against the Russian leaders; on the other, we have prospective bans of EVs (oh, the irony!) and nasty Karen pols warning us to dial down the heating. Complete schizophrenia and cognitive dissonance. Something has to give.
I think there is a Ukraine angle that is being overlooked
At some point, Ukraine fatigue will set in and the support will taper off. Combined with renewed Russian assaults, what will also happen is that Ukraine and Ukrainians will feel betrayed. Especially if they eventually get forced into a peace - i can imagine a scenario where remaining weapons wind up in the hands of some pretty angry groups who will be all over Europe. Osama Bin Zelensky, if you will
I disagree with most of what MacLeod says. Especially with his position that the Russians and Chinese are the aggressors in this two-front (military and economic) war (as you well note, Mark). The West instigated this conflict and thus it is the West which will need to accept the terms of the resolution of it, whatever that may be.
That raises some interesting questions. Sun Tzu said that you should always leave an opening of escape for a surrounded - defeated - enemy. Does Putin read him? If so, is he thinking about what the West needs to "save face" in agreeing to an end of the war with Russia? What will Russia be willing to give and still feel secure in its ability to defend itself in the future? Perhaps we are already beyond the point of negotiation (especially with the insane neocons).
Another question is how far European leaders are willing to go in their support of Ukraine (and therefore support of its patron the U.S.)? The British and Poles appear to be in for the duration or until their governments fall; Germany and France (and certainly Italy) I do not think are. I know people in Europe (in more than one country). They are already blaming the U.S. for being warmongers who have inflicted hardships on the general populace in Europe by putting pressure on their politicians vis a vis Russia. Will the leaders leverage that sentiment against the U.S. as a means of escape? How long before the common people actually revolt against their own leaders? Are the leaders (such as Macron and Scholz) really nothing more than WEF acolytes who WANT to see the economic and social destruction of Europe and are willing to sacrifice their own political careers to that end? Or are they really self-interested nationalists? Perhaps we shall find out.
Finally, I think MacLeod is over pessimistic about the U.S. Dollar. The Dollar will continue as a primary means of currency in a multi-polar world and it will take time for the Russians and the BRICS+ to set up their own trade systems (including currency and credit mediums). It IS true that just as investment is flowing into the Dollar now because of rising interest rates and general geopolitical instability investment will eventually flow out of it. Capital goes where it is wanted and can best be leveraged. That is a universal fact. But it will take time and adjustments will be made along the way. The Euro, though, well.... glad I am not holding it.
Good questions. The EU leadership is still all in. They have as much at stake in all this as the Biden Regime. As ever, they are using this self-inflicted crisis to increase their own power and are desperate to project a united front to the outside world. But the cracks are definitely appearing among individual European nations. I personally think the EU will fracture. As for Europeans in general, we hear all this doom and gloom, but things still seem pretty normal and the real winter hasn't really kicked in yet. I'm sure things will look very different by next Spring.
Thanks very much, Steghorn21. I always greatly appreciate your first-hand reports from the "European front." They bring me hope along with needed doses of reality. I certainly hope you are right about the EU. It does seem to be a house built on sand at this point.
Thanks, Diss. There's always plenty of hope, no matter how bleak it seems. There are still plenty of kind hearted people around, despite the psychopaths doing their best to ruin our lives. Truth and Goodness will prevail. Eventually! Stay strong, my friend!
I disagree with MacLeod in one respect. He writes "That the Americans have tentatively signalled that they are now prepared to negotiate confirms the success of Putin’s Ukraine strategy. Now, with the onset of winter he can afford to wait. And the longer he waits, the greater the squeeze on Ukraine and the EU."
I don't think Putin can afford to wait. I don't trust Biden and Blinken for one second. If they can figure out a way to keep the war going through Nov 2024 they'll do it, regardless of the damage it does to Americans or the US domestic economy, let alone to Ukraine or Ukrainians. Fighting Putin the Madman is an electoral winner and if all it takes is running the good ol' printing press at the Treasury they'll do it. Putin has got to win this thing decisively before Zelensky, Biden, Stoltenberg, Blinken et al can figure out how to regroup.
Good point! In any event it is obvious who is calling the shots, and Reason doesn’t stand a chance with the feckless and delusional Biden/Blinken crowd…hope I’m wrong…
No, the worst combination of events possible is that the dollar gains strength thanks to a market crash destroying trillions of dollars and dollar debts coming due. What if instead of an inflationary recession we get a deflationary depression?
Agreed. I'm glad places like China, Russia and Saudi are finally telling the US where to go. However, I have no illusions that having these folks in charge instead would be pleasant. We're just little folks trying to avoid being trampled on by either side.
2023 will indeed be an absolute doozy. As Martin Armstrong is fond of saying, there has never been a worse set of leaders in the West than at the moment. Only Orban comes out with any credit. The rest are evil fools. The place to watch will be here in Europe. We're a docile bunch, but I can't see the Euroweenies taking this forever. On the one hand, we have Von der Lying promising war crimes tribunals against the Russian leaders; on the other, we have prospective bans of EVs (oh, the irony!) and nasty Karen pols warning us to dial down the heating. Complete schizophrenia and cognitive dissonance. Something has to give.
The question is, will this alternative to the dollar remain within the "international banking cartel". Wink, wink.
Think Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.
Soon to be Ghana? https://twitter.com/EricArchambaul7/status/1599425076054532097
And don't forget the 3rd Reich. https://www.minds.com/unifiedrightparty/blog/how-hitler-defied-the-bankers-988156119111254016
I think there is a Ukraine angle that is being overlooked
At some point, Ukraine fatigue will set in and the support will taper off. Combined with renewed Russian assaults, what will also happen is that Ukraine and Ukrainians will feel betrayed. Especially if they eventually get forced into a peace - i can imagine a scenario where remaining weapons wind up in the hands of some pretty angry groups who will be all over Europe. Osama Bin Zelensky, if you will
I disagree with most of what MacLeod says. Especially with his position that the Russians and Chinese are the aggressors in this two-front (military and economic) war (as you well note, Mark). The West instigated this conflict and thus it is the West which will need to accept the terms of the resolution of it, whatever that may be.
That raises some interesting questions. Sun Tzu said that you should always leave an opening of escape for a surrounded - defeated - enemy. Does Putin read him? If so, is he thinking about what the West needs to "save face" in agreeing to an end of the war with Russia? What will Russia be willing to give and still feel secure in its ability to defend itself in the future? Perhaps we are already beyond the point of negotiation (especially with the insane neocons).
Another question is how far European leaders are willing to go in their support of Ukraine (and therefore support of its patron the U.S.)? The British and Poles appear to be in for the duration or until their governments fall; Germany and France (and certainly Italy) I do not think are. I know people in Europe (in more than one country). They are already blaming the U.S. for being warmongers who have inflicted hardships on the general populace in Europe by putting pressure on their politicians vis a vis Russia. Will the leaders leverage that sentiment against the U.S. as a means of escape? How long before the common people actually revolt against their own leaders? Are the leaders (such as Macron and Scholz) really nothing more than WEF acolytes who WANT to see the economic and social destruction of Europe and are willing to sacrifice their own political careers to that end? Or are they really self-interested nationalists? Perhaps we shall find out.
Finally, I think MacLeod is over pessimistic about the U.S. Dollar. The Dollar will continue as a primary means of currency in a multi-polar world and it will take time for the Russians and the BRICS+ to set up their own trade systems (including currency and credit mediums). It IS true that just as investment is flowing into the Dollar now because of rising interest rates and general geopolitical instability investment will eventually flow out of it. Capital goes where it is wanted and can best be leveraged. That is a universal fact. But it will take time and adjustments will be made along the way. The Euro, though, well.... glad I am not holding it.
Good questions. The EU leadership is still all in. They have as much at stake in all this as the Biden Regime. As ever, they are using this self-inflicted crisis to increase their own power and are desperate to project a united front to the outside world. But the cracks are definitely appearing among individual European nations. I personally think the EU will fracture. As for Europeans in general, we hear all this doom and gloom, but things still seem pretty normal and the real winter hasn't really kicked in yet. I'm sure things will look very different by next Spring.
Thanks very much, Steghorn21. I always greatly appreciate your first-hand reports from the "European front." They bring me hope along with needed doses of reality. I certainly hope you are right about the EU. It does seem to be a house built on sand at this point.
Thanks, Diss. There's always plenty of hope, no matter how bleak it seems. There are still plenty of kind hearted people around, despite the psychopaths doing their best to ruin our lives. Truth and Goodness will prevail. Eventually! Stay strong, my friend!
I disagree with MacLeod in one respect. He writes "That the Americans have tentatively signalled that they are now prepared to negotiate confirms the success of Putin’s Ukraine strategy. Now, with the onset of winter he can afford to wait. And the longer he waits, the greater the squeeze on Ukraine and the EU."
I don't think Putin can afford to wait. I don't trust Biden and Blinken for one second. If they can figure out a way to keep the war going through Nov 2024 they'll do it, regardless of the damage it does to Americans or the US domestic economy, let alone to Ukraine or Ukrainians. Fighting Putin the Madman is an electoral winner and if all it takes is running the good ol' printing press at the Treasury they'll do it. Putin has got to win this thing decisively before Zelensky, Biden, Stoltenberg, Blinken et al can figure out how to regroup.
Good point! In any event it is obvious who is calling the shots, and Reason doesn’t stand a chance with the feckless and delusional Biden/Blinken crowd…hope I’m wrong…
"Going first" is what Putin did with the SMO. It surprised and set back his enemies. I expect him to do so again and every time he can.
My guess is that the Neo-con Russia-Ukraine gambit will prove to be one of history’s most devastating political blunders.
Everything about it bespeaks arrogance, incompetence and pretty much what you would expect from a bunch of amateur hour wannabes.
I shudder to contemplate the fallout from this fiasco.
arrogance and incompetence is a deadly combination.
Agreed. Just like the events leading up to WWI and its aftermath and effects to this day.
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/12/04/nigerian-president-says-weapons-from-ukraine-are-winding-up-in-africa/
Yeah, go figure. Moral bankruptcy of the American Empire.
Those weapons are going to murder Nigerian Christians.
More so than they already are and have. Makes one wince.
No, the worst combination of events possible is that the dollar gains strength thanks to a market crash destroying trillions of dollars and dollar debts coming due. What if instead of an inflationary recession we get a deflationary depression?
Agreed. I'm glad places like China, Russia and Saudi are finally telling the US where to go. However, I have no illusions that having these folks in charge instead would be pleasant. We're just little folks trying to avoid being trampled on by either side.
That's certainly possible.
And I assumed for years that this was China's ambition, especially with SRI.
But world empire has, Mongolia excepted, always been a European project.
Now SRI looks like it could be just like the toppling of king dollar: a project to establish alternative trade routes to prevent unipolar monopoly.
Decentralization = liberty.
Decentralization and subsidiarity.