Russia is successfully waging an energy deprivation campaign against Ukraine, and this could also be applied against the EU if long range cruise missiles are sent to Ukraine for use against the Russian homeland. Specifically, the LNG docking and transfer port on the northern coast of Germany is an extremely vulnerable target with the potential to catastrophically curtail natural gas supply for this upcoming winter season. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is difficult to handle safely under the best of circumstances, and would be at risk of substantial damage or explosion under even minor attack. A single medium range hypersonic missile would likely take out the entire port if coordinated with the docking and off-loading of a typical transhipping tanker. The missile would just be the ignition source. The tanker itself would be the bomb. And it would take years to rebuild the port after such an explosion. That is the type of risk that the EU would be undertaking by further escalation. This is truly insanity and most Germans have no idea how vulnerable they are.
Asked for the deployment of the JASSM system by the time they approve it and get it deployed, the war will be over. Given some of the stuff I’ve read on your page and others. It’s not inconceivable that Ukraine could surrender or collapse before the elections or by the end of November.
I don’t believe they will ever have the time to deploy these systems to Ukraine to be used inside Russia . It’s only gonna take one attack like that inside Russia for Putin decide to level Kiev and that will be the end of the war.
Thanks for the thoughts re my wife. She handled the two knee replacements extremely well--same surgeon, and he's supposed to be a hip specialist. We have high hopes.
Some of the polls showing Harris tied with Trump are unintentionally hilarious. One very recent one in Michigan listed among those that count in the eyes of 538 included 64% D voters among the respondents. 64%!! And all it got them was a 50-50 tie with Trump because even that poll had Trump winning 78% of independents.
I wonder what it would look like if Russia supplied long range arms to the Middle East? Much like Western systems they would probably be manned by Russian specialists.
It is best to distinguish between "conventional" natural gas, i.e., produced and delivered via pipeline vs. LNG, which is an entirely different beast. Compare it to costume jewelry vs. VVSI diamond necklaces.
You can get a good idea of the differences by going to OilPricedotcom and looking at their price charts. At present, natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub price index) is about $2.20/MMBTU. On the other hand, Dutch TTF (European Index) is $12.65/MMBTU (be careful because different regions use different pricing mechanisms--these here are standardized to MMBTU, called "dekatherm"). Now look at the Japan/Korea LNG marker, which is $14/MMBTU. Think about it: Japan is an island nation nation (no pipeline gas...all LNG), and Korea is effectively so. A wise observer would say that Europe is paying an exorbitant price for ALL natural gas, and they would be (mostly) correct (the last volumes into the system--LNG--set the price). That is even though a lot of their gas (Norway) is delivered by pipeline (i.e., NOT LNG). Sure, there is probably a discount for pipeline gas, but because Europe has (stupidly) confined themselves to using significant amounts of "portable" LNG, they have locked themselves into LNG-type pricing!
As for Germany "not buying any Russian natural gas..." if they are buying from the European pipeline system, they certainly buying some Russian gas...LNG!
Finally, there is a belief that this exorbitant pricing is temporary, and that Germany in particular will get back on track next year. But with Nordstream gone, that is cope.
Some will say, "but natural gas cannot be but a smidgen of the cost input to industrial production. Look at steel production (a source of German pride): at $2.20/MMBTU, the input is $33/ton of steel. At $12.65/MMBTU, the cost is $190/ton of steel...just for the heat!!!
Russia is successfully waging an energy deprivation campaign against Ukraine, and this could also be applied against the EU if long range cruise missiles are sent to Ukraine for use against the Russian homeland. Specifically, the LNG docking and transfer port on the northern coast of Germany is an extremely vulnerable target with the potential to catastrophically curtail natural gas supply for this upcoming winter season. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is difficult to handle safely under the best of circumstances, and would be at risk of substantial damage or explosion under even minor attack. A single medium range hypersonic missile would likely take out the entire port if coordinated with the docking and off-loading of a typical transhipping tanker. The missile would just be the ignition source. The tanker itself would be the bomb. And it would take years to rebuild the port after such an explosion. That is the type of risk that the EU would be undertaking by further escalation. This is truly insanity and most Germans have no idea how vulnerable they are.
https://unherd.com/2024/08/whos-afraid-of-sahra-wagenknecht/
Asked for the deployment of the JASSM system by the time they approve it and get it deployed, the war will be over. Given some of the stuff I’ve read on your page and others. It’s not inconceivable that Ukraine could surrender or collapse before the elections or by the end of November.
I don’t believe they will ever have the time to deploy these systems to Ukraine to be used inside Russia . It’s only gonna take one attack like that inside Russia for Putin decide to level Kiev and that will be the end of the war.
Thanks for the thoughts re my wife. She handled the two knee replacements extremely well--same surgeon, and he's supposed to be a hip specialist. We have high hopes.
Some of the polls showing Harris tied with Trump are unintentionally hilarious. One very recent one in Michigan listed among those that count in the eyes of 538 included 64% D voters among the respondents. 64%!! And all it got them was a 50-50 tie with Trump because even that poll had Trump winning 78% of independents.
Prayers for your wife and the entire family!
Yes Mark, our prayers also. I share your challenges/concerns.
I wonder what it would look like if Russia supplied long range arms to the Middle East? Much like Western systems they would probably be manned by Russian specialists.
shades of fascism:
https://www.malone.news/p/the-persecution-of-dr-reiner-fuellmich?
Lawfare is the goto tool for the Western elites against any opposition on both sides of the Atlantic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/so-much-sanctions-russia-surpasses-us-gas-exports-eu
It is best to distinguish between "conventional" natural gas, i.e., produced and delivered via pipeline vs. LNG, which is an entirely different beast. Compare it to costume jewelry vs. VVSI diamond necklaces.
You can get a good idea of the differences by going to OilPricedotcom and looking at their price charts. At present, natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub price index) is about $2.20/MMBTU. On the other hand, Dutch TTF (European Index) is $12.65/MMBTU (be careful because different regions use different pricing mechanisms--these here are standardized to MMBTU, called "dekatherm"). Now look at the Japan/Korea LNG marker, which is $14/MMBTU. Think about it: Japan is an island nation nation (no pipeline gas...all LNG), and Korea is effectively so. A wise observer would say that Europe is paying an exorbitant price for ALL natural gas, and they would be (mostly) correct (the last volumes into the system--LNG--set the price). That is even though a lot of their gas (Norway) is delivered by pipeline (i.e., NOT LNG). Sure, there is probably a discount for pipeline gas, but because Europe has (stupidly) confined themselves to using significant amounts of "portable" LNG, they have locked themselves into LNG-type pricing!
As for Germany "not buying any Russian natural gas..." if they are buying from the European pipeline system, they certainly buying some Russian gas...LNG!
Finally, there is a belief that this exorbitant pricing is temporary, and that Germany in particular will get back on track next year. But with Nordstream gone, that is cope.
Some will say, "but natural gas cannot be but a smidgen of the cost input to industrial production. Look at steel production (a source of German pride): at $2.20/MMBTU, the input is $33/ton of steel. At $12.65/MMBTU, the cost is $190/ton of steel...just for the heat!!!