Alex Christophorou of The Duran had what I consider to be a very smart video presentation today. In it he addressed an issue that I’ve raised several times, but without being able to explain to my satisfaction. I’m providing a summary of the first part of the video, not a transcript, although the summary follows Christophorou’s presentation closely—with a few additions:
I don't know. The problem Putin has is that the war is not going well. I know I will be accused of being swayed by propaganda, but when the Russians are bringing T-62s out of storage, you have to figure things are not going well. And even if mobilization is ordered, it will take months to implement and there is training time involved that depends on whether you want skilled and capable fighters or just cannon fodder (which is the real objective IMHO). This is a dangerous game we are playing and I don't think I can rely on the decisions of those in power at the moment.
But if you look at what the strategic objectives of Putin are, he is failing at achieving any of them. Reunifying Ukraine into Russia? Massive failure. Keeping Finland and Sweden neutral? Massive failure. Demonstrating Russian ability to exercise influence at home and abroad? Massive failure. I really can't see what is going well for him. Yes he can inflict pain on the West, but there will come a point that his oil and gas fields could collapse if they are shut down. This would reduce Russia's attractiveness to even China if they do not have the ability to produce energy.
Putin has created the seeds of Russia's destruction. I think the only way for Russia to survive will be to split Putin from Russians so that he can be blamed for the failures, remove Putin and everyone goes back to drinking vodka.
List of articles from end of August about US running "uncomfortably" short of 155mm ammunition. As we know from AFU sources, that's not a problem for Russia.
T-62s are actually considered better tanks than the T-72s that were made for export or under license in places like Poland. The Ukrainian and Russian T-62s are undoubtedly upgraded--the Ukrainian ones with NATO help and the Russians by themselves. People like Scott Ritter consider them to be very good tanks, and especially for the use they're put too. They're not being used for tank on tank battles out on the steppes or in the deserts, nor are they leading a charge into heavily fortified defense lines. The WaPo story about the Ukrainian "offensive" toward Kherson included a Ukrainian account of how Russian tanks were stationed inside fortified defense positions, were wheeled out to take a shot or two, then backed into position again.
As for strategic objectives, the ones I'm aware of run like this: 1) liberate Donbass, 2) land bridge to Crimea, 3) demilitarization, 4) denazification.
1 is a work in progress but is proceeding with heavy losses to AFU--part of 3.
2 is complete, along with occupation of most of Novorossiya--plus 3 as a above
4 is a work in progress.
Russia is making 2x the money by producing less energy, but has developed huge new energy markets in China and India (who resell to EU at steeper prices). Oil and gas isn't going to be shut down. If it is, the world will collapse--unless you're one of those Green Energy tomorrow believers.
Russians go back to vodka? Very patronizing re a great nation. In America dope is more popular than cigarettes.
The West is declining faster (energy and social support...midterm USA) than Russia supplies (material and most important #men). The frontline is huge (what's the exact length ?) and it's being tested for reasons mentionned here.
Another great summation, Mark! Yes, this does seem to fit the facts. There was also that rather creepy US general (why do all these people look so weird?) blathering on about breaking up Russia. He obviously had official permission to say that. As a 4-star Armchair General, I hope that Putin continues to ignore this and quietly pushes on to seizing Odessa. Then General Winter can enter the building.
Do you think the timing of the 2 recent energy experts deaths in Russia is a factor in this scenario?
Personally it all seems to me too much like the food supply chain disruptions with plane crashes, random explosions, etc.; which our media of course not asking questions or pointing out how oddly coincidental these all occurred in such a short time-span. I sadly feel our 3 letter agencies would have zero qualms to assassinate key energy people in Russia to poke the bear.
That may well be true today. Perhaps they outsourced it to others if indeed these deaths are “hits” and not accidents. I was thinking more in terms that the US is running the proxy war alone, but there is evidence that it may actually be GB in charge. Or maybe we partnered up, just like for the Russian collusion hoax.
I guess these clowns never heard of Sun Tzu or figure that he’s just another old guy that they can ignore with impunity. Know Your Enemy!!! Putin is a lawyer, he’s not stupid, he’s not given to impulsive moves, he’s in full control of his faculties, unlike our current CIC and he is well aware of what you fools are trying to “force” him into. You think he doesn’t realize that in a waiting game with the EU and the West he’s holding 4 Aces?
If he stands with the cards he has and waits, whose economy is going to collapse first?
Whose citizens will spend a very, very cold and possibly dark winter this year? And then there’s the question of how’s your plan to bring Russia to its knees working out so far?As the old saying goes, it would appear that you’ve got him right where he wants you?
Hard to believe these people are the best and the brightest.
Sun Tsu being a dead Chinese and therefore "white adjacent" means he gets cancelled just like me and my ancestors are. White guilt and privilege are both very highly overrated, I am unable to find mine anywhere.
Is this a joke? I don't mean the article or Christophorou, but are our leaders that arrogant and disconnected? Putin is sitting pretty, has significant gains, and the more this continues the more the Ukrainians will have disproportionate losses. Your last paragraph says it all. Add to that the Russian people, who will not suffer as will Europe and even America this winter, have no reason to question the wisdom of Putin's actions.
To resurrect a cliché, a week is a long time in politics. I'm sure as the weeks pass, the Ukie offensive will be seen in Russia for what it really was, and things will calm down.
Ukraine was discussed by Gonzalo Lira, Brian Berletic on today's Duran.
https://youtu.be/trePeF5q3X4
I don't know. The problem Putin has is that the war is not going well. I know I will be accused of being swayed by propaganda, but when the Russians are bringing T-62s out of storage, you have to figure things are not going well. And even if mobilization is ordered, it will take months to implement and there is training time involved that depends on whether you want skilled and capable fighters or just cannon fodder (which is the real objective IMHO). This is a dangerous game we are playing and I don't think I can rely on the decisions of those in power at the moment.
But if you look at what the strategic objectives of Putin are, he is failing at achieving any of them. Reunifying Ukraine into Russia? Massive failure. Keeping Finland and Sweden neutral? Massive failure. Demonstrating Russian ability to exercise influence at home and abroad? Massive failure. I really can't see what is going well for him. Yes he can inflict pain on the West, but there will come a point that his oil and gas fields could collapse if they are shut down. This would reduce Russia's attractiveness to even China if they do not have the ability to produce energy.
Putin has created the seeds of Russia's destruction. I think the only way for Russia to survive will be to split Putin from Russians so that he can be blamed for the failures, remove Putin and everyone goes back to drinking vodka.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=pentagon+worried+about+running+out+of+155mm+rounds&ia=web
List of articles from end of August about US running "uncomfortably" short of 155mm ammunition. As we know from AFU sources, that's not a problem for Russia.
T-62s are actually considered better tanks than the T-72s that were made for export or under license in places like Poland. The Ukrainian and Russian T-62s are undoubtedly upgraded--the Ukrainian ones with NATO help and the Russians by themselves. People like Scott Ritter consider them to be very good tanks, and especially for the use they're put too. They're not being used for tank on tank battles out on the steppes or in the deserts, nor are they leading a charge into heavily fortified defense lines. The WaPo story about the Ukrainian "offensive" toward Kherson included a Ukrainian account of how Russian tanks were stationed inside fortified defense positions, were wheeled out to take a shot or two, then backed into position again.
As for strategic objectives, the ones I'm aware of run like this: 1) liberate Donbass, 2) land bridge to Crimea, 3) demilitarization, 4) denazification.
1 is a work in progress but is proceeding with heavy losses to AFU--part of 3.
2 is complete, along with occupation of most of Novorossiya--plus 3 as a above
4 is a work in progress.
Russia is making 2x the money by producing less energy, but has developed huge new energy markets in China and India (who resell to EU at steeper prices). Oil and gas isn't going to be shut down. If it is, the world will collapse--unless you're one of those Green Energy tomorrow believers.
Russians go back to vodka? Very patronizing re a great nation. In America dope is more popular than cigarettes.
Excellent article.
The West is declining faster (energy and social support...midterm USA) than Russia supplies (material and most important #men). The frontline is huge (what's the exact length ?) and it's being tested for reasons mentionned here.
Another great summation, Mark! Yes, this does seem to fit the facts. There was also that rather creepy US general (why do all these people look so weird?) blathering on about breaking up Russia. He obviously had official permission to say that. As a 4-star Armchair General, I hope that Putin continues to ignore this and quietly pushes on to seizing Odessa. Then General Winter can enter the building.
Do you think the timing of the 2 recent energy experts deaths in Russia is a factor in this scenario?
Personally it all seems to me too much like the food supply chain disruptions with plane crashes, random explosions, etc.; which our media of course not asking questions or pointing out how oddly coincidental these all occurred in such a short time-span. I sadly feel our 3 letter agencies would have zero qualms to assassinate key energy people in Russia to poke the bear.
US 3 letter agencies are not competent enough.
Now some European agency…
Or Putin sending a message to anti Putin Russians…
That may well be true today. Perhaps they outsourced it to others if indeed these deaths are “hits” and not accidents. I was thinking more in terms that the US is running the proxy war alone, but there is evidence that it may actually be GB in charge. Or maybe we partnered up, just like for the Russian collusion hoax.
I guess these clowns never heard of Sun Tzu or figure that he’s just another old guy that they can ignore with impunity. Know Your Enemy!!! Putin is a lawyer, he’s not stupid, he’s not given to impulsive moves, he’s in full control of his faculties, unlike our current CIC and he is well aware of what you fools are trying to “force” him into. You think he doesn’t realize that in a waiting game with the EU and the West he’s holding 4 Aces?
If he stands with the cards he has and waits, whose economy is going to collapse first?
Whose citizens will spend a very, very cold and possibly dark winter this year? And then there’s the question of how’s your plan to bring Russia to its knees working out so far?As the old saying goes, it would appear that you’ve got him right where he wants you?
Hard to believe these people are the best and the brightest.
Sun Tsu being a dead Chinese and therefore "white adjacent" means he gets cancelled just like me and my ancestors are. White guilt and privilege are both very highly overrated, I am unable to find mine anywhere.
Tex, you are clearly not putting enough effort into your search!😂
During my search I found some ammo I didn't even know I had, the last place I looked a skunk was looking back at me.
Now that’s funny!😂
I’m pretty surprised that you found a skunk though, I was certain that they had all gone to DC.
Is this a joke? I don't mean the article or Christophorou, but are our leaders that arrogant and disconnected? Putin is sitting pretty, has significant gains, and the more this continues the more the Ukrainians will have disproportionate losses. Your last paragraph says it all. Add to that the Russian people, who will not suffer as will Europe and even America this winter, have no reason to question the wisdom of Putin's actions.
Seems crazy to me, too, but it's as good an explanation as I've heard.
That woman is a total lunatic.
The Atlantic is an asylum for presstitutes!
That is hilarious!
To resurrect a cliché, a week is a long time in politics. I'm sure as the weeks pass, the Ukie offensive will be seen in Russia for what it really was, and things will calm down.
I’m in the wait and see what happens.
Ukraine was desperate for a victory at any cost.
Putin is happy to trade land for low Russian casualties, and to inflict huge damage to Ukrainian forces.
We will have a much better understanding in a week or two of what is really happening.