Back on April 13th I quoted Rybar Force concerning the US war on Russia’s energy sector—still the heart of Russia’s economy (The Triple Alliance, For Dummies And Neocons). Rybar lays bare the despicable imperial aims of the American Empire to hold back all other countries for no other reason than US domination around the world:
Not a finance guy (would love Tom Luongo’s take) but there seems to be a maniacal global push by the Empire to slash hydrocarbon fuel trade (lockdowns, climate change, destroying pipe lines, revoking Canada oil deal, removing gas from homes, electric cars, windmills, de industrialising Europe, etc.)
I wonder if the real reason is to reduce international US dollar trade in hydrocarbons to avert hyperinflation, even Bitcoin seems to be a dollar sink. After all 10% of global trade is cars and oil not to mention its input costs in other products.
While he focusses on the seemingly incomprehensible US decision to confiscate Russian assets held in US banks, I'm sure you'll agree that the US's mysterious actions relating to the global energy trade and the reserve status of the Almighty Dollar are all wrapped up together.
Of course its hard for a mere observer (me) to understand the game we are playing, but it certainly doesn't feel good. I would say Luongo thinks its insane.
I’ve read a time or two in the re ent past where Russian shift to LNG seemed to make sense given the instability (Nordstream) of pipeline usage. Further, i believe countries friendly to Russia such as India, Indonesia would ultimately prefer LNG over heavy crude or the like. IMO it’s a case of customer preference. And Putin’s ready to ensure Russias place in these markets.
As far as the ice breaker LNG container ships Russia is building I would assume these to be on a future CIA target list.
I doubt the fertilizer is cheap. Why is Europe increasing their purchases of fertilizer from Russia? Wait for it...Because the EU sanctioned natural gas and somebody blew up the Nordstream pipeline. You see, nitrogen fertilizers are made from...Natural Gas! Germany's big fertilizer industry all but shut down in 2022-2023 because natural gas costs were too high. The culprit for that was/is...LNG. The EU relaxed the sanctions on fertilizer, but since they have no competitive source of it, Russia probably prices it in line with the next best feedstock, LNG. In the EU, all natural gas is priced at the level of the incremental value, which is LNG. Compare: in the US, natural gas is $1.93/MMBTU. the same amount in Europe is $9.06. No cheap fertilizer.
There is probably more to the story than my take but it looks like the U.S. deep state leaned on South Korea to cancel the building of two LNG container ships which has resulted in Novatek suspending or reducing production of LNG for lack of shipping containers.
Reuters reported days ago, "According to Novatek the 15 Arc7 ice-class tankers, able to cut through 2-metre thick ice, will now be built at Russia's Zvezda shipyard for Arctic LNG 2."
So Hanwha dumps the Novatek contract under U.S. sanction pressure against Russia and in return picks up a lucrative contract to take over U.S. shipbuilding and repair jobs.
In the end, Russia ship building industry is strengthened and American shipbuilding is further emasculated with loss of American jobs to South Korea, and the U.S. taxpayer is left with the bill.
What is good for the Neocons is never good for this country.
Drew
HD HHI, Hanwha Ocean accelerate entry into “US Navy ship MRO” business
Story by Lee Jeong-gu, Kim Mi-geon
South Korean shipbuilders are aggressively pursuing the North American defense market with warships. The United States, despite its formidable military strength, faces challenges in shipbuilding and repair infrastructure, leading to frequent delivery delays. This has brought attention to the technology and productivity of South Korean companies. “Allies like South Korea and Japan are building high-quality ships, including the Aegis, at a fraction of the cost of the United States,” U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos del Toro, who toured HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HD HHI) and Hanwha Ocean during a visit to South Korea in February, said at an event hosted by the Navy League, “and “We were able to monitor the construction process in real-time, through which delivery dates were predictable.” He also emphasized an opportunity to attract advanced Korean shipbuilders to open U.S. subsidiaries and invest in the U.S. shipyards.
"...The United States, despite its formidable military strength..."
Are you referring to the formidable military strength of the USS Eisenhower, which fled the Red Sea because of its inability to project the formidable strength that was imagined?
I have to believe that the Daewoo management are furious that they were pressured into defaulting on contracts to build ice-class LNG tankers (big $$$) so that they can possibly make a few tenders for the USN.
In the meantime, Russia is developing the means to produce LNG tankers with superior ice-class capabilities. Will they be the best at cryogenic storage or recapture of vented gas? Maybe not in the first iteration. But it will come with time, and their capacity for industrial output will dwarf anything that the U.S. has been able to show for the last four decades.
The deterioration of the U.S. ability to manufacture fundamental infrastructure is astonishing. It scares the crap out of me, a U.S. citizen. If the "leaders" of this country don't learn how to conduct diplomacy, we are in for a world of hurt. I have to leave it at that...for now.
Economic sanctions might work in limited circumstances where the sanctioned party decides it would rather have access to a market than continue the conduct which led to being sanctioned.
But I would think that Russia, with its enormous natural resources, increasingly efficient manufacturing capabilities, immense agricultural output and growing trade relations with the ROW, is largely self-sufficient. What does the West have that Russia needs so badly that it should roll over and let NATO put nukes and bioweapons on its doorstep?
It seems to me that our 'leaders' are so consumed with their materialistic, consumerist viewpoint that they delude themselves into believing that Russia will be cowed by sanctions...because Russia wants and needs something the US has? What might that be, pray tell?
Russians got their Levis and Cokes and Big Macs after the fall of the Soviet Union. It was nice after ~70 years of Communism. They also got our Bill Browders and our vulture capitalists. I think they now pretty much see us for what we are.
All this manifest destiny of domination and destruction requires gobs of energy and the veritable
crucifixion of water in my imagination. Unfathomable ironies. I wish.
Re. that weird bit at the end where it gets Pp-personal; that's a phenomenon Alex Krainer speaks on most recently with Ivor Cummins, in regard to Putin esp., with confidence, but there's the rub for those who hate almost exclusively it would appear. The bigger the front the bigger the back it reads on that wall.
All the focus on LNG is misplaced. Last year, LNG comprised about 6% of Russia's natural gas total production, and Russia has natural gas export markets that are readily reached by pipelines. Those pipelines will by far be the primary method to deliver gas to the customers. In the long run, LNG will supply island nations, and nations that can afford the exorbitant price in order to provide heat to their populace. No energy-intensive industry can compete using LNG if others are using pipeline gas.
Much like Ukraine throwing small drones at Russia's refineries, attacking LNG plants is more for show than a serious attempt to make a difference. Another one of Vicky's "nasty surprises."
The first of four key reasons is that LNG has become the most important swing energy source in an increasingly insecure world. Unlike oil or gas that is transported through pipelines, LNG does not require years and vast expenses to build out a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport anywhere. Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days and bought reliably either through short- or long-term contracts or immediately in the spot market.
The guy is hard to understand because he is talking through an orifice upon which the sun doesn't shine:
"LNG does not require years and vast expenses to build out a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport anywhere."
The Likong’o-Mchinga project in Tanzania will take about 3-5 years for construction, not even counting the permitting process (2 years?), and the cost estimate is $30G (G = billion). That will be a medium-sized LNG plant, about 10 million metric tons per year production.
"Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days and bought reliably either through short- or long-term contracts "
Nobody builds a plant of that magnitude, and sells on short-term contracts.
"Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days..."
Transit from USGC to ARA (e.g., Houston to Rotterdam) takes a couple of weeks one-way. Load scheduling is affected by a host of factors, like dock congestion and weather. And the vessels are specialized and cannot carry backhauls, making the freight costs very high.
Thanks. I was skeptical of some of his claims on a common sense basis--I knew that LNG transport wasn't as simple as he was making out, but lacked any in depth knowledge. The real point remains--that the US is trying to block Russia's development. It also makes sense that Russia would want to have the capability to ship LNG from the Arctic.
All this rather reassures me because it all but guarantees the defeat and disintegration of the GAE. If they decided to cut their losses and, after a cooling off period, start a reproachment with Russia, now that would worry me. However, as the Duran boys pointed out today, the neocons are going to dig themselves in deeper and deeper with ever more crazy moves such as attacking the Kerch bridge and giving Russia's dollar reserves to Z until they self-destruct. This piece of malice will fail like all the others have because the Russians will find a work-around. The real losers will be we poor saps in Europe who won't even realise we are being screwed and who is doing it.
Not a finance guy (would love Tom Luongo’s take) but there seems to be a maniacal global push by the Empire to slash hydrocarbon fuel trade (lockdowns, climate change, destroying pipe lines, revoking Canada oil deal, removing gas from homes, electric cars, windmills, de industrialising Europe, etc.)
I wonder if the real reason is to reduce international US dollar trade in hydrocarbons to avert hyperinflation, even Bitcoin seems to be a dollar sink. After all 10% of global trade is cars and oil not to mention its input costs in other products.
@johny
Funny you should mention Luongo.
Zerohedge published his post entitled "It's The End Of The Foreign Exchange Reserves As We Know It... Don't Feel Fine About It" this morning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/its-end-foreign-exchange-reserves-we-know-it-dont-feel-fine-about-it
While he focusses on the seemingly incomprehensible US decision to confiscate Russian assets held in US banks, I'm sure you'll agree that the US's mysterious actions relating to the global energy trade and the reserve status of the Almighty Dollar are all wrapped up together.
Of course its hard for a mere observer (me) to understand the game we are playing, but it certainly doesn't feel good. I would say Luongo thinks its insane.
In Luongo's article is embedded an excellent The Duran discussion (which unfortunately includes a lot of ads--look for it on Youtube, instead).
I’ve read a time or two in the re ent past where Russian shift to LNG seemed to make sense given the instability (Nordstream) of pipeline usage. Further, i believe countries friendly to Russia such as India, Indonesia would ultimately prefer LNG over heavy crude or the like. IMO it’s a case of customer preference. And Putin’s ready to ensure Russias place in these markets.
As far as the ice breaker LNG container ships Russia is building I would assume these to be on a future CIA target list.
South Korea is just another vassal.
Russia exports massive amounts of cheap fertilizer to Europe too. Guess which empire isn't happy about this.
I doubt the fertilizer is cheap. Why is Europe increasing their purchases of fertilizer from Russia? Wait for it...Because the EU sanctioned natural gas and somebody blew up the Nordstream pipeline. You see, nitrogen fertilizers are made from...Natural Gas! Germany's big fertilizer industry all but shut down in 2022-2023 because natural gas costs were too high. The culprit for that was/is...LNG. The EU relaxed the sanctions on fertilizer, but since they have no competitive source of it, Russia probably prices it in line with the next best feedstock, LNG. In the EU, all natural gas is priced at the level of the incremental value, which is LNG. Compare: in the US, natural gas is $1.93/MMBTU. the same amount in Europe is $9.06. No cheap fertilizer.
Thanks for the explanation, Piquet. Yes, it's all connected.
There is probably more to the story than my take but it looks like the U.S. deep state leaned on South Korea to cancel the building of two LNG container ships which has resulted in Novatek suspending or reducing production of LNG for lack of shipping containers.
Reuters reported days ago, "According to Novatek the 15 Arc7 ice-class tankers, able to cut through 2-metre thick ice, will now be built at Russia's Zvezda shipyard for Arctic LNG 2."
So Hanwha dumps the Novatek contract under U.S. sanction pressure against Russia and in return picks up a lucrative contract to take over U.S. shipbuilding and repair jobs.
In the end, Russia ship building industry is strengthened and American shipbuilding is further emasculated with loss of American jobs to South Korea, and the U.S. taxpayer is left with the bill.
What is good for the Neocons is never good for this country.
Drew
HD HHI, Hanwha Ocean accelerate entry into “US Navy ship MRO” business
Story by Lee Jeong-gu, Kim Mi-geon
South Korean shipbuilders are aggressively pursuing the North American defense market with warships. The United States, despite its formidable military strength, faces challenges in shipbuilding and repair infrastructure, leading to frequent delivery delays. This has brought attention to the technology and productivity of South Korean companies. “Allies like South Korea and Japan are building high-quality ships, including the Aegis, at a fraction of the cost of the United States,” U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos del Toro, who toured HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HD HHI) and Hanwha Ocean during a visit to South Korea in February, said at an event hosted by the Navy League, “and “We were able to monitor the construction process in real-time, through which delivery dates were predictable.” He also emphasized an opportunity to attract advanced Korean shipbuilders to open U.S. subsidiaries and invest in the U.S. shipyards.
"...The United States, despite its formidable military strength..."
Are you referring to the formidable military strength of the USS Eisenhower, which fled the Red Sea because of its inability to project the formidable strength that was imagined?
I have to believe that the Daewoo management are furious that they were pressured into defaulting on contracts to build ice-class LNG tankers (big $$$) so that they can possibly make a few tenders for the USN.
In the meantime, Russia is developing the means to produce LNG tankers with superior ice-class capabilities. Will they be the best at cryogenic storage or recapture of vented gas? Maybe not in the first iteration. But it will come with time, and their capacity for industrial output will dwarf anything that the U.S. has been able to show for the last four decades.
The deterioration of the U.S. ability to manufacture fundamental infrastructure is astonishing. It scares the crap out of me, a U.S. citizen. If the "leaders" of this country don't learn how to conduct diplomacy, we are in for a world of hurt. I have to leave it at that...for now.
Thanks, very informative. Sanctions, it seems are always a two edged sword, and usually cut sharper against the wielder.
Chalk that up as yet another lesson not learnt by the neocons.
Economic sanctions might work in limited circumstances where the sanctioned party decides it would rather have access to a market than continue the conduct which led to being sanctioned.
But I would think that Russia, with its enormous natural resources, increasingly efficient manufacturing capabilities, immense agricultural output and growing trade relations with the ROW, is largely self-sufficient. What does the West have that Russia needs so badly that it should roll over and let NATO put nukes and bioweapons on its doorstep?
It seems to me that our 'leaders' are so consumed with their materialistic, consumerist viewpoint that they delude themselves into believing that Russia will be cowed by sanctions...because Russia wants and needs something the US has? What might that be, pray tell?
Russians got their Levis and Cokes and Big Macs after the fall of the Soviet Union. It was nice after ~70 years of Communism. They also got our Bill Browders and our vulture capitalists. I think they now pretty much see us for what we are.
I don't think they think they need us.
You nailed it Cass. Militarily, economically and politically, we picked on the wrong person. He called our bluff.
All this manifest destiny of domination and destruction requires gobs of energy and the veritable
crucifixion of water in my imagination. Unfathomable ironies. I wish.
Re. that weird bit at the end where it gets Pp-personal; that's a phenomenon Alex Krainer speaks on most recently with Ivor Cummins, in regard to Putin esp., with confidence, but there's the rub for those who hate almost exclusively it would appear. The bigger the front the bigger the back it reads on that wall.
All the focus on LNG is misplaced. Last year, LNG comprised about 6% of Russia's natural gas total production, and Russia has natural gas export markets that are readily reached by pipelines. Those pipelines will by far be the primary method to deliver gas to the customers. In the long run, LNG will supply island nations, and nations that can afford the exorbitant price in order to provide heat to their populace. No energy-intensive industry can compete using LNG if others are using pipeline gas.
Much like Ukraine throwing small drones at Russia's refineries, attacking LNG plants is more for show than a serious attempt to make a difference. Another one of Vicky's "nasty surprises."
Here's Watkins--I have no expertise:
The first of four key reasons is that LNG has become the most important swing energy source in an increasingly insecure world. Unlike oil or gas that is transported through pipelines, LNG does not require years and vast expenses to build out a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport anywhere. Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days and bought reliably either through short- or long-term contracts or immediately in the spot market.
The guy is hard to understand because he is talking through an orifice upon which the sun doesn't shine:
"LNG does not require years and vast expenses to build out a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport anywhere."
The Likong’o-Mchinga project in Tanzania will take about 3-5 years for construction, not even counting the permitting process (2 years?), and the cost estimate is $30G (G = billion). That will be a medium-sized LNG plant, about 10 million metric tons per year production.
"Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days and bought reliably either through short- or long-term contracts "
Nobody builds a plant of that magnitude, and sells on short-term contracts.
"Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days..."
Transit from USGC to ARA (e.g., Houston to Rotterdam) takes a couple of weeks one-way. Load scheduling is affected by a host of factors, like dock congestion and weather. And the vessels are specialized and cannot carry backhauls, making the freight costs very high.
(https://constructionreviewonline.com/biggest-projects/us-30bn-tanzania-lng-project-timeline-and-all-you-need-to-know/)
Thanks. I was skeptical of some of his claims on a common sense basis--I knew that LNG transport wasn't as simple as he was making out, but lacked any in depth knowledge. The real point remains--that the US is trying to block Russia's development. It also makes sense that Russia would want to have the capability to ship LNG from the Arctic.
All this rather reassures me because it all but guarantees the defeat and disintegration of the GAE. If they decided to cut their losses and, after a cooling off period, start a reproachment with Russia, now that would worry me. However, as the Duran boys pointed out today, the neocons are going to dig themselves in deeper and deeper with ever more crazy moves such as attacking the Kerch bridge and giving Russia's dollar reserves to Z until they self-destruct. This piece of malice will fail like all the others have because the Russians will find a work-around. The real losers will be we poor saps in Europe who won't even realise we are being screwed and who is doing it.
I like your mixing of “reproach” with “rapprochement!” Things are complicated!
Ha! Maybe it's old age, but I couldn't remember how to spell "rapprochement" so went for the nearest I could remember!