Who's Bleeding Now?
I want to quickly draw attention to Larry Johnson’s post today, which makes some excellent points—including points that Alexander Mercouris and I have discussed in the past few days. Here you’ll find Larry’s full post:
Going into this I’ll simply lay out two preliminary points that play into Johnson’s response to an email from a reader.
First, Alexander Mercouris yesterday, in response to Alex Christoforou, insisted on an essential point of vulnerability for the US—Russia is not alone in this globalist assault on Eurasia. China is closely joined to Russia, and efforts to detach China from that close linkage—so as to be able to confront Russia alone before turning on China—have failed thus far. I see no prospect for success in this regard. The US has antagonized China deeply over the past 10 years or so, to the extent that our intentions cannot be doubted by China.
Second, in a comment yesterday or the day before, I responded to a query regarding a substack post that posited the ability of the US to bury Russia and China with our “defense industry” and its overwhelming productive capacity. My response was that much has changed since WW2, including the outsourcing of much of the American industrial base. We’re seeing the results of that already, as NATO runs out of military supplies and equipment to send to Ukraine and finds itself unable to make up the shortfall in timely fashion. Another difference is that in WW2 we faced capable enemies in Japan and Germany, but both were seriously constrained with regard to energy resources. Those constraints dictated their military strategies to an extent that is often not fully appreciated, and worked against their strictly military conduct of the war.
So, Johnson begins by quoting the email he received, which I excerpt. I believe the writer is correct, while adding that I also believe that the Neocons and Globalists had deluded themselves with the notion that the “bleeding” of Russia in a war of attrition would not be a drawn out affair—sanctions “shock and awe” would quickly effect regime change in Russia and submission to the Imperial West. A further miscalculation appears to have been the belief that the victory over Russia would come so quickly that there would be no need to mollify China. That delusion only changed half way through this war, so far:
The end game is to diminish/weaken Russia. The US has determined they cannot fight and win a war against both China and Russia. The US and it’s allies have sought to pick off the weaker of the two. The longer the US bleeds out Russia, via Ukraine, the better. Not all NATO (think Germany) were onboard with the plan. Hence, NATO starts talks with Ukraine about joining. Such talk provoked a response from Russia. Blowing up Nordstream forced Germany fully on board. The US/NATO will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. NATO weakens Russia; US clears the decks to more capably deal with China; arms manufacturers make money, and politicians skim money here and there. The way the conflict is currently postured, this can go on for some time, all of which benefits US/NATO. ... The US won’t publicly announce they win by weakening Russia, by taking away a Chinese ally, and saddling Europe with a generation of debt, but that seems to be happening. What do you think?
Johnson first reproduces his emailed response:
“... I think the facts on the ground contradict you. For example, the US economy is in recession with the added whammy of inflation. Russia’s economy is growing not shrinking. It is the United States that cannot supply Ukraine with an adequate supply of artillery rounds and HIMMARs. Russia by contrast is not running out of weapons/missiles. ... It is the US that is bleeding out. Why do you believe that the US is so strong militarily? We no longer meet recruiting goals and the military leadership is more worried about proper pronouns rather than a competent military.”
That last additional point regarding our military is likely to be important in anything like a long run. Even if we assume that the US military is operating to its full capabilities at this point—an assumption which numerous reports and reviews call into serious doubt, in all branches of the service—the longer term is problematic in the extreme. DoD openly admits not only the shortfall in meeting recruitment goals, but also the serious decline in quality of recruits. The affect on morale of wokeness and the Covid Regime is now beyond doubt. The bleeding of veteran, difficult to replace personnel is a reality going into this global conflict, but the Ruling Class is in denial about all this—they believe that a Trans military can carry the day with our high tech weaponry. Events in Ukraine call that into doubt, as well, revealing our weapons systems to be fragile over the long term of combat.
Johnson continues by next expanding a bit on the concept of “bleeding out”:
I think Matt is correct observed that the original plan of the United States and NATO was to “bleed out” Russia. ... Only one little problem — Russia ain’t bleeding; it is NATO and the United States that are hemorrhaging.
The Wall Street Journal published a news item this week making this very point, Europe Is Rushing Arms to Ukraine but Running Out of Ammo:
Europe, home to some of the world’s largest weapons manufacturers, is struggling to produce enough ammunition for Ukraine and for itself, jeopardizing NATO’s defense capacity and its support for Kyiv, officials and industry leaders say.
A lack of production capacity, a dearth of specialized workers, supply-chain bottlenecks, high costs of financing and even environmental regulations are putting a brake on efforts to increase output, presenting the West and Ukraine with a fresh challenge for next year.
The United States and its European allies have been deceived by their use of military force over the last 30 years. They have never had to fight a peer nation with the capability to produce all of its own military equipment that is on par with what the West relies on. ... The United States and NATO were lulled into a state of complacency.
Compounding the problem was the decision of the West to shift much of its manufacturing capability to foreign countries. American can no longer do what it did in the wake of Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, when the United States switched its massive industrial base into manufacturing tanks, planes, ammunition, battleships and air craft carriers. ...
Johnson concludes with a warning:
We enter the New Year under a dark and dangerous cloud. The failure of the United States and NATO to stop Russia may lead the Western alliance to act with more desperation and recklessness. Russia, for its part, admitted as much this week and is taking steps to bulk up its forces in the event this escalates into a World War. I continue to pray for peace, but there are no Western leaders embracing that approach. They are pinning their hopes on getting rid of Vladimir Putin without taking a moment to consider that Putin’s replacement would likely be more nationalistic and less inclined to negotiate. We are living in an historic, epochal moment that likely signifies the beginning of the end of American dominance in world affairs.
From what I've read, the funding the U.S. is providing is paying for more than just war material; we're paying Ukrainian government salaries as crazy as that seems with money borrowed from our future generation(s) - not that there is any chance our debt will ever be paid off. Of course, the donkey party and McConnell republicans view any accountability for the funding provided as anti-Ukraine. If McCarthy does win the Speakership, he had better begin auditing the massive fraud that is undoubtedly a part of this massive welfare program. If he doesn't, a percentage of this money will be kicked back to donkey politicians so as to replace the now defunct Bankman-Fried cash cow.
I learned long ago that anything published in the popular press was put there for a reason to serve someone’s interest. Mostly it is lies and misdirection are best.
Second point. As a veteran of the third armored division in Germany way back in the 1960’s I recall that we were told that our mission was to defend the Fulda gap from soviet invasion and to hold it for 72 hours while reinforcements would arrive. Most of us would not survive. We all saluted and said yes sir. I wonder how many woke trans soldiers sitting warm and comfortable in the u.s. would do the same when they are told they are being shipped to Ukraine in the middle of the freezing winter for a similar mission? Anybody who thinks those Patriot missiles are going to shoot themselves doesn’t understand the concept of mission creep.