"Clearly, they thought conservatives would be forced to become reflexive anti-Russia cheerleaders ..."
All during the Trump administration the continuous attacks on Trump/Putin confused me mightily. Did the left really think the right would be so angered by the Trump/Putin narrative that they would oust Trump?
So, yeah, I'm a paid-in-full member of your conspiracy theory.
The only item I would tend to disagree with is LBS=F (Lumber)
10/2021 - $495
4/2021 - $1500
10/2021 - $591
Today $778.
All over the map, but still trending up. That is until either interest rates and/or a recession takes all the air out of the housing bubble.
Here's a good example. I'm close to needing to replace my roof which I paid ~ $3200 for shingles and supplies (not labor) in 2003. I just got a quote for a replacement of $41,000. Still have the bill from back then and the retail cost of supplies have since increased 2.5-3x. Labor costs? Labor shortage? I don't care. I'm not paying that amount and needless to say, I'm waiting for the bubble to pop and price insanity to come to an end. See Demand Destruction.
Mark, even before 10 am you do more than justice to old Forester’s “connect, only connect”! Yes, what a novel idea, to give peace a chance! Yet Taibbi has another piece about “giving war a chance…” Each side trying to smear the other according to political calculations…I’m sure Biden, with bird on his face (or nearly!) is looking to distract us with foreign war mongering - here in France, predictably, Little Mac is accusing Le Pen of having close ties to Putin…
Being old enough to have known of the shortages, ration books for everything from foodstuffs to shoes, inflation, wage freezing, and the other home front hardships that accompanied the WWII years, I am unhappy about price increases but know they will pass at some point. . I was a child during WWII, but my parents talked in front of us so we knew what was going on. Much later the Carter years, with double digit interest rates and gasoline shortages. I remember lining up for what seemed like a mile and hoping the station would not run out before I got to the pump. And on and on. The Trump years were comforting because we were not being hauled into foreign wars and the economy was doing well. For someone who was believed by the stupid to be nothing more than a greedy businessman-TV performer with a penchant for being “blunt”, his daughter’s description of her father when asked for one word, Trump did darned well. So did we. (In my dictionary, Blunt = uncompromisingly straightforward. Not bad.)
The point of this stream of consciousness comment is sort of “This too shall pass”… I notice some prices coming down a bit. More “specials” where stores don’t have to commit to more than a few-day-long price cut. Gas prices are inching down (in California And are very competitive from station to station in our area. They have a way to go, but it is still a change in the right direction). We just got our natural gas bill for last month. A $15.45 credit balance (down from $60something the previous monh) due to something called the California Gas Credit. So-called “summer gasoline” (a weird California situation that causes gas prices to go up in summer when many are on the road) will not happen this year. There is moaning that that will cause smog. We have experienced smog. Real smog. For years it rolled west from the now-defunct Kaiser steel mill in Fontana. When the steel mill went, so did the nasty smog. What anyone calls smog today may be measurable at the Air Quality Control Board but we haven’t noticed smog in many decades.
Perspective can help. If you are not old enough to have some, try an older relative. Nothing goes on forever. And we have a major election coming.
As another old timer I appreciate your comment, and remember many of the same things. I especially remember the 1950s, When America had the best economy, the best health care, the very best educational system and life was good as a young man, in spite of my years in the Army. My father's favorite line, aside from 'the first 100 years are the hardest' was “This too shall pass”, although I fear this time is different. The 2020 election was a game changer, and now I feel like when I chose to live in France after the Army. This is not my country. I disagree with virtually everything my government is doing. Worse, I fear they are destroying the very foundations of our country, and our very well-being. The economy, health care and our educational system may never recover.
I understand what you are saying, but I keep wondering if there really are no Democrats who disagree with what is happening, with what their voting (D) has brought them as well as us. I do remember the Reagan Democrats in California who had had enough. Surely all Democrats in all states and in all age and demographic brackets cannot be lemming-like when it comes to what Biden and his feckless crew have wrought...
I fear our politicians, Republican and Democrat, are profiting from the situation, and as they feel no pain they are not concerned at any pain we are suffering. I am even more concerned that those who understand that things need fixing are looking for a political solution, and do not understand that we require someone like Trump who has practical knowledge and can implement real-life reforms to get us back on track. On the bright side, I feel there is a lot of human potential, maybe even among the illegals. What is needed is to re-establish a government of the people, by the people and for the people, which has perished, at least temporarily, from this earth.
Compare Putin's statement here with what Mearshimer was stating (see video above) as a matter of geopolitical theory back in 2018--but Mearshimer was persona non grata among the Neocons who dominate foreign policy:
Russian Embassy, UK
@RussianEmbassy
2h

President #Putin: In the modern complex world, no single country will be able to keep its total dominance. Today we are witnessing the break-up of the unipolar world that was formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Mark, we will get a deep recession this year, not next year. Inflation at these rates will crater the economy even if the Fed did absolutely nothing. People can't spend money they don't have any longer because they spent it on food and heating/cooling the house. This isn't the 1970s- in the 70s a great deal of the inflation was demographic in nature as the Baby Boomers began to enter adulthood en masse, and it crested just as the biggest bulge them passed into adulthood in the early/mid 80s and began to the most productive years of their lives. There isn't a comparable sized demography at work today. Discretionary spending is going to zero and below for a large fraction of the population, and that means deep recession.
How about deep, deep Depression? In the 1920s we had a flourishing economy with many new industries, debt was minimal and the gold standard held. Now both stocks and debt are at all-time highs and much of our economy is based on things like information technology and entertainment, nothing that helps in providing the essentials of food and shelter.
I think, too, that our economy back then was more resilient--the great transformation was still in its early stages and we had yet to experience the three big bubbles.
The Republicans may be getting smart enough to not do a kneejerk response to the media. The media has really burned us in recent years. This “war” is clearly media driven.
Years ago I was invited to a social event at a nearby home in Santa Barbara. The guests of honor had met as members of a production team that produced the March of Time newsreels that were shown in every movie theater across the country. The purpose of these propaganda films was to first promote our getting into what was then only a European war - then to keep our morale and support up during the years that followed as the war expanded into Africa and Asia. This couple was very frank about the purpose of the films and described in some detail how they were slanted to achieve the desired effect among the American people.
Thx Mark. Zhou is Irish though. Did you see Treasury Secretary today doubling down on need to shift quickly away from carbon based goods?
Yes. Insanity, because there's no possibility of doing such quickly--if ever.
speaks of desparation.
In the comments at the Karl Denninger article this was linked, very insightful, By DAVID P. GOLDMAN article Doing without the Dollar:
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/doing-without-the-dollar/
Thanks, will read carefully. Economics makes my head hurt.
If peak inflation is "far off", how will people be rating the pain on a 1-10 scale? Who will they blame? I guarantee you it won't be Putin and Abbott.
Producer Prices Soar At Record Pace, 'Pipeline' Suggests Peak Inflation Far Off
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-prices-soar-record-pace-pipeline-suggests-peak-inflation-far
"Clearly, they thought conservatives would be forced to become reflexive anti-Russia cheerleaders ..."
All during the Trump administration the continuous attacks on Trump/Putin confused me mightily. Did the left really think the right would be so angered by the Trump/Putin narrative that they would oust Trump?
So, yeah, I'm a paid-in-full member of your conspiracy theory.
Welcome. Some of the usual suspects--Cruz, Rubio--have partially bought in, but most have opted out.
And Cotton, Ernst too.
So it's not just those hot headed Cuban Americans!
Charlie Bilello
@charliebilello
·
1h
Commodity price changes over the last year...
Nat Gas: +161%
Nickel: +103%
Heating Oil: +92%
Coffee: +80%
Wheat: +77%
Cotton: +73%
WTI Crude: +69%
Brent Crude +66%
Gasoline: +59%
Corn: +36%
Sugar: +32%
Soybeans: +21%
Copper: +17%
Gold: +14%
US CPI: +8.5%
Silver: +3%
Lumber: -23%
The only item I would tend to disagree with is LBS=F (Lumber)
10/2021 - $495
4/2021 - $1500
10/2021 - $591
Today $778.
All over the map, but still trending up. That is until either interest rates and/or a recession takes all the air out of the housing bubble.
Here's a good example. I'm close to needing to replace my roof which I paid ~ $3200 for shingles and supplies (not labor) in 2003. I just got a quote for a replacement of $41,000. Still have the bill from back then and the retail cost of supplies have since increased 2.5-3x. Labor costs? Labor shortage? I don't care. I'm not paying that amount and needless to say, I'm waiting for the bubble to pop and price insanity to come to an end. See Demand Destruction.
The 4/21 price spike was purely supply-driven due to the lockdowns; it was artificial. So the real trend is 495 > 591 > 778.
Mark, even before 10 am you do more than justice to old Forester’s “connect, only connect”! Yes, what a novel idea, to give peace a chance! Yet Taibbi has another piece about “giving war a chance…” Each side trying to smear the other according to political calculations…I’m sure Biden, with bird on his face (or nearly!) is looking to distract us with foreign war mongering - here in France, predictably, Little Mac is accusing Le Pen of having close ties to Putin…
https://twitter.com/Hedgeye/status/1513863439923310593?cxt=HHwWgsCj8eOxqYIqAAAA
Being old enough to have known of the shortages, ration books for everything from foodstuffs to shoes, inflation, wage freezing, and the other home front hardships that accompanied the WWII years, I am unhappy about price increases but know they will pass at some point. . I was a child during WWII, but my parents talked in front of us so we knew what was going on. Much later the Carter years, with double digit interest rates and gasoline shortages. I remember lining up for what seemed like a mile and hoping the station would not run out before I got to the pump. And on and on. The Trump years were comforting because we were not being hauled into foreign wars and the economy was doing well. For someone who was believed by the stupid to be nothing more than a greedy businessman-TV performer with a penchant for being “blunt”, his daughter’s description of her father when asked for one word, Trump did darned well. So did we. (In my dictionary, Blunt = uncompromisingly straightforward. Not bad.)
The point of this stream of consciousness comment is sort of “This too shall pass”… I notice some prices coming down a bit. More “specials” where stores don’t have to commit to more than a few-day-long price cut. Gas prices are inching down (in California And are very competitive from station to station in our area. They have a way to go, but it is still a change in the right direction). We just got our natural gas bill for last month. A $15.45 credit balance (down from $60something the previous monh) due to something called the California Gas Credit. So-called “summer gasoline” (a weird California situation that causes gas prices to go up in summer when many are on the road) will not happen this year. There is moaning that that will cause smog. We have experienced smog. Real smog. For years it rolled west from the now-defunct Kaiser steel mill in Fontana. When the steel mill went, so did the nasty smog. What anyone calls smog today may be measurable at the Air Quality Control Board but we haven’t noticed smog in many decades.
Perspective can help. If you are not old enough to have some, try an older relative. Nothing goes on forever. And we have a major election coming.
As another old timer I appreciate your comment, and remember many of the same things. I especially remember the 1950s, When America had the best economy, the best health care, the very best educational system and life was good as a young man, in spite of my years in the Army. My father's favorite line, aside from 'the first 100 years are the hardest' was “This too shall pass”, although I fear this time is different. The 2020 election was a game changer, and now I feel like when I chose to live in France after the Army. This is not my country. I disagree with virtually everything my government is doing. Worse, I fear they are destroying the very foundations of our country, and our very well-being. The economy, health care and our educational system may never recover.
I understand what you are saying, but I keep wondering if there really are no Democrats who disagree with what is happening, with what their voting (D) has brought them as well as us. I do remember the Reagan Democrats in California who had had enough. Surely all Democrats in all states and in all age and demographic brackets cannot be lemming-like when it comes to what Biden and his feckless crew have wrought...
I fear our politicians, Republican and Democrat, are profiting from the situation, and as they feel no pain they are not concerned at any pain we are suffering. I am even more concerned that those who understand that things need fixing are looking for a political solution, and do not understand that we require someone like Trump who has practical knowledge and can implement real-life reforms to get us back on track. On the bright side, I feel there is a lot of human potential, maybe even among the illegals. What is needed is to re-establish a government of the people, by the people and for the people, which has perished, at least temporarily, from this earth.
Compare Putin's statement here with what Mearshimer was stating (see video above) as a matter of geopolitical theory back in 2018--but Mearshimer was persona non grata among the Neocons who dominate foreign policy:
Russian Embassy, UK
@RussianEmbassy
2h

President #Putin: In the modern complex world, no single country will be able to keep its total dominance. Today we are witnessing the break-up of the unipolar world that was formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Mark, we will get a deep recession this year, not next year. Inflation at these rates will crater the economy even if the Fed did absolutely nothing. People can't spend money they don't have any longer because they spent it on food and heating/cooling the house. This isn't the 1970s- in the 70s a great deal of the inflation was demographic in nature as the Baby Boomers began to enter adulthood en masse, and it crested just as the biggest bulge them passed into adulthood in the early/mid 80s and began to the most productive years of their lives. There isn't a comparable sized demography at work today. Discretionary spending is going to zero and below for a large fraction of the population, and that means deep recession.
How about deep, deep Depression? In the 1920s we had a flourishing economy with many new industries, debt was minimal and the gold standard held. Now both stocks and debt are at all-time highs and much of our economy is based on things like information technology and entertainment, nothing that helps in providing the essentials of food and shelter.
I think, too, that our economy back then was more resilient--the great transformation was still in its early stages and we had yet to experience the three big bubbles.
Heather Long
@byHeatherLong
·
Apr 12
Where Americans are seeing big inflation spikes:
Fuel oil 70%
Gas 48%
Used cars 35%
Hotels 29%
Airfare 24%
Utility gas 22%
Bacon 18%
Oranges 18%
Furniture 16%
Beef 16%
New cars 13%
Chicken 13%
Milk 13%
Appliances 12%
Fish 11%
Eggs 11%
Coffee 11%
Food at home 10%
Rent (OER) 4.5%
Right. Very good as far as he goes.
Individuals had to pay it back
The Republicans may be getting smart enough to not do a kneejerk response to the media. The media has really burned us in recent years. This “war” is clearly media driven.
Years ago I was invited to a social event at a nearby home in Santa Barbara. The guests of honor had met as members of a production team that produced the March of Time newsreels that were shown in every movie theater across the country. The purpose of these propaganda films was to first promote our getting into what was then only a European war - then to keep our morale and support up during the years that followed as the war expanded into Africa and Asia. This couple was very frank about the purpose of the films and described in some detail how they were slanted to achieve the desired effect among the American people.
That's pretty much how I was thinking, without getting into the numbers which I'm not competent to do.
Yes.