For some time now we’ve been emphasizing the importance that a relatively quick resolution to the disastrous forever wars will be for the entire Trump 2.0.
Trump and Pogo have a lot in common. Trump's greatest enemies reside in the once great USA. Confusion to your enemies. Voice what your enemies want you to think but use the sub-text to advance your agenda: namely, a meeting with Putin.
When meeting with Putin you change the agenda completely and redraw security agreements and hopefully set course for a safer world.
Come out of the meeting as a true (albeit blowhard) statesman.
So “who” is the “audience” for Trump on these statements? Perhaps most important aspect.
Consider: Trump fully recognizes, in ways he did not the first time around, that the West, and thus the US, needs to “re-organize.” The Digital Paradigm has swept the field. Start over. The Chinese, Indians, Russians have already been doing this.
And since no one else in the West is, or can, step up, he is setting markers out for everyone else to look at.
Ian Bremmer calls this “gzero,” or lack of leadership in the West. Bremmer does not understand what has happened, and it’s not as simple as leadership. It is leadership within the new context/paradigm. Trump gets this now.
One can argue that he is both continuing the destruction of the old and setting up a few new things that will then be gathered around.
Who is the real roadblock to peace? It’s not the Russians, Chinese, Indians, etc. His references to people he has already talked to is significant…also note his focus in talking with Davos was all about economy…
Overshadowing all of this is the simple reality that many Western governments (including the US) bet on being able to take control over the Ukrainian government and then using that control to secure access to, and exploitation of, their vast mineral and agricultural resources. They need this grift to succeed in order to stave off financial collapse due to decades of irresponsible spending beyond their means, and those chickens will soon come home to roost. Trump knows this and will likely try to negotiate some form of limited partnership that allows for some reduced access in exchange for joint funding and participation in the rebuilding of Ukraine. This could work if it includes meeting Russia's larger security objectives.
"First of all I want to show you something that Trump said today. At first he was talking about some things with China, but then he pivots with China to talk about how he wants some help with Russia."
CTK: Perhaps he (Trump) has this backward. Maybe we need Russia's help with China! We keep telling the world China is our number one threat and he pivots to China for help? That's sounds stupid. China has benefited tremendously from the US outsourcing our manufacturing to them and they have grown strong and rich and have become an economic and military threat. While we have sanctioned Russia for years, stolen their money. Oy!
"I like President Xi very much. I've always liked him. We always had a very good relationship. Hopefully China can help us stop the war with Russia Ukraine. They have a great deal of power over that situation and we'll work with them."
CTK: Again, this makes no sense. Great you like Xi and you state you like Pres. Putin yet we have been treating Putin like a monster with...Russia, Russia, Russia, he's a psychopath, etc, etc and Trump has loaded up the Ukraine with money and arms in his first admin. Russia, is a deeply faithful Orthodox Christian Country that aligns better with the USA than China, why not use our economic power to help Russia grow richer? Let's be friends. Do we need the Brits as friends? We made Israel substantially richer and they have spied on us, and have used the money we have allocated to turn $9b INTO $360b, and bought off our congress with our money! This is madness!
Intriguing analysis. Certainly an improvement on my first instinct to just throw up my hands and ascribe Trump's approach so far to some wild combination of 3D chess, night-baseball poker and a few Crazy Ivans thrown in for good measure. I agree that there is more of a genuine desire for peace this go-'round than Putin has yet seen from American leadership.
Putin was remarkably-complimentary toward Trump in expressing today, in a televised interview, a willingness to talk, going so far as to echo Trump's line that Ukraine hostilities from 2022 might have been averted but for a sketchy 2020 election:
Of course, Putin's buttering-up Trump and giving him the 2020 election talking point is good strategy versus a counterparty so acutely-susceptible to blown smoke.
Mark, thank you for the very informative post and in particular your excellent accompanying analysis. Very much appreciated!
Mark, I think you are onto something.
Trump and Pogo have a lot in common. Trump's greatest enemies reside in the once great USA. Confusion to your enemies. Voice what your enemies want you to think but use the sub-text to advance your agenda: namely, a meeting with Putin.
When meeting with Putin you change the agenda completely and redraw security agreements and hopefully set course for a safer world.
Come out of the meeting as a true (albeit blowhard) statesman.
Well done Mark.
So “who” is the “audience” for Trump on these statements? Perhaps most important aspect.
Consider: Trump fully recognizes, in ways he did not the first time around, that the West, and thus the US, needs to “re-organize.” The Digital Paradigm has swept the field. Start over. The Chinese, Indians, Russians have already been doing this.
And since no one else in the West is, or can, step up, he is setting markers out for everyone else to look at.
Ian Bremmer calls this “gzero,” or lack of leadership in the West. Bremmer does not understand what has happened, and it’s not as simple as leadership. It is leadership within the new context/paradigm. Trump gets this now.
One can argue that he is both continuing the destruction of the old and setting up a few new things that will then be gathered around.
Who is the real roadblock to peace? It’s not the Russians, Chinese, Indians, etc. His references to people he has already talked to is significant…also note his focus in talking with Davos was all about economy…
Overshadowing all of this is the simple reality that many Western governments (including the US) bet on being able to take control over the Ukrainian government and then using that control to secure access to, and exploitation of, their vast mineral and agricultural resources. They need this grift to succeed in order to stave off financial collapse due to decades of irresponsible spending beyond their means, and those chickens will soon come home to roost. Trump knows this and will likely try to negotiate some form of limited partnership that allows for some reduced access in exchange for joint funding and participation in the rebuilding of Ukraine. This could work if it includes meeting Russia's larger security objectives.
"First of all I want to show you something that Trump said today. At first he was talking about some things with China, but then he pivots with China to talk about how he wants some help with Russia."
CTK: Perhaps he (Trump) has this backward. Maybe we need Russia's help with China! We keep telling the world China is our number one threat and he pivots to China for help? That's sounds stupid. China has benefited tremendously from the US outsourcing our manufacturing to them and they have grown strong and rich and have become an economic and military threat. While we have sanctioned Russia for years, stolen their money. Oy!
"I like President Xi very much. I've always liked him. We always had a very good relationship. Hopefully China can help us stop the war with Russia Ukraine. They have a great deal of power over that situation and we'll work with them."
CTK: Again, this makes no sense. Great you like Xi and you state you like Pres. Putin yet we have been treating Putin like a monster with...Russia, Russia, Russia, he's a psychopath, etc, etc and Trump has loaded up the Ukraine with money and arms in his first admin. Russia, is a deeply faithful Orthodox Christian Country that aligns better with the USA than China, why not use our economic power to help Russia grow richer? Let's be friends. Do we need the Brits as friends? We made Israel substantially richer and they have spied on us, and have used the money we have allocated to turn $9b INTO $360b, and bought off our congress with our money! This is madness!
.
Not certain if this was discussed much
But I really think Trump statements on Panama Canal
are primarily about Putin / Ukraine negotiation
Trump effectively stating to Putin US will take the Panama Canal
so you had better settle with US if you want to use it.
Trump's got not too much leverage in Ukraine Panama is something
Is it a ' veiled threat ' I think Lavrov took it that way.
Trump’s Russian policy before his first term even started was kneecapped as evidenced by Flynn.
And I’m sure his enemies would love to do this to him again. So Trump needs political cover.
Intriguing analysis. Certainly an improvement on my first instinct to just throw up my hands and ascribe Trump's approach so far to some wild combination of 3D chess, night-baseball poker and a few Crazy Ivans thrown in for good measure. I agree that there is more of a genuine desire for peace this go-'round than Putin has yet seen from American leadership.
Putin was remarkably-complimentary toward Trump in expressing today, in a televised interview, a willingness to talk, going so far as to echo Trump's line that Ukraine hostilities from 2022 might have been averted but for a sketchy 2020 election:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-ready-meet-smart-pragmatic-trump-talk-calmly-oil-energy-ukraine
Of course, Putin's buttering-up Trump and giving him the 2020 election talking point is good strategy versus a counterparty so acutely-susceptible to blown smoke.