30 Comments

It's mostly a big nothing burger. I believe I commented on something like this a week or two ago. The Iran / Israel retaliation saga is done for now and probably quite awhile. Israel learned more about Iran's air defenses. Iran got a chance to defend and learn too. Putin will have Iran stand down. I don't see either side escalating further. Now for Lebanon and Gaza.. that's a different story.

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If Israel intends genocide in Lebanon, can Hezbollah defend it adequately, if not, will Iran be involved to defend Lebanon ??

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Oct 26·edited Oct 26

I hope that you're correct.

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Quite unusual US silence. Perhaps a certain country took out most refueling tankers & a few F35’s…Checkmate.

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Israel uses their own tankers. They most likely used F35's too over Syria/Iraq airspace. Zhou was busy resting.

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I've read that a lot of the activity was over Jordan, although launches came from Iraqi air space.

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All the Middle East and Gulf states posturing with displeasure to make sure their voice is heard. As if it really matters based on the nothingburger.

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The Gulf states bark like a dog but have no bite. I would refer to them as fair weather friends.

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Danny Davis: Israel Strikes Iran: Precise but FEEBLE

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Here is a twist scenario. Maybe this attack was a feint. This attack was an operation to effect the achievement of the "element of surprise. "

Now the attack has happened, no one expects the Israelis to attack again. Therefore the Iranian's guard will be down.

Attack now, in full force, and victory will be complete.!!!!!

Probably not. But in war, anything is possible. Prior training teaches out of the box possibilities. 🤨

Hopefully this whole conflict will stagnate in its own soup.

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Israel's limping right now...

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Comparison of Iran and Israel

GDP is around the same.

Iran has 9 times population.

My guess on purchasing power, a dollar in Iran goes a lot further than in Israel.

Military spending I’m seeing different numbers. Seems a good source:

https://milex.sipri.org/sipri

I was just wondering why Iran has such a huge advantage in drones and missiles. My guess based on purchasing power, Iran's military budget is more than Israel’s. Plus Israel has focused spending on their air force. Israel is a pioneer in military drones, but not in industrial warfare using masses of drones which Iran is.

References:

https://georank.org/economy/iran/israel

https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IRN&country2=ISR

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I believe Iran has more access to natural resources... oil being an obvious one. There are many others. Plus Barry and Zhou have loosened sanctions and given US taxpayer dollars along the way.

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Ray -

FWIW, according to cia.gov, Iran has the world's 22nd largest economy in terms of annual real gdp (by purchasing power) at $1.440 trillion (est 2023), while Israel has the world's 51st largest economy expressed in similar terms at $471 billion. In terms of purchasing power, Iran's economy is over 3 times larger than Israel's.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison/

I would also be interested in seeing a comparison of the two countries' manufacturing capabilities, but I have looked for this...yet.

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Iran directly makes all their own drones and missiles which is much less expensive while Israel buys their missiles from American companies who make a large profit with no incentive to keep costs down.

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Important point.

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Correct. And the USoA subsidizes Israel’s weapon purchases with financial aid from the taxpayer.

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Interesting database! Iran has almost tripled defense spending from 2020 to 2023 but Israel still has a 2.7 x advantage. Your question about drones and missiles is a good one. Drones are quite cheap relatively but... ?

Thanks

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I agree with your thoughts about the geopolitical implications of this.

LJ and Martanyov discussed the attack and its apparent failure last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnQb3jd75bY

They agreed that the lack of damage from the attack was the best possible outcome for heading off a full-scale war. The absence of significant damage gives Iran the option of simply "declaring victory" and not responding at all if it so chooses. They believe this is what Russia has advised and is advising them to do. From your points about implications it would still be a big victory for them strategically even if they now do nothing.

Also interesting is that Israel gave Iran notice of what it would attack ahead of time:

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/26/israel-iran-attack-warning

"The Israeli message was an attempt to limit the ongoing exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran and prevent a wider escalation, the sources said."

"This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran," the [Israeli] official added. "If Iran attacks Israel again there will be consequences. We communicated that directly and indirectly to Iran."

It appears that Israel now knows that it cannot fight, much less beat, Iran in a war. What went on behind the scenes with the U.S. and Russia to guide them to this approach?

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So tired of this game of Chicken!

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Yes. Let's bring on the Nukes!

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I think it is more kabuki. Lots of big talk and small explosions. The Israelis can declare victory and save face with no one really getting hurt? That is a win for humanity.

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I'm sharing the following from The American Mind, "Make Peace and Rebuild America's Industrial Base"

https://americanmind.org/features/what-trump-should-do-if-he-wins/make-peace-and-rebuild-americas-industrial-base/

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Oct 26·edited Oct 26

We can win by losing. If we lose standing in the world, it's no more than we deserve.

If America elects Trump and he pursues the path of peace, rebuilding our industrial capacity, strengthening the border and defanging the Deep State, we could see a calmer world.

You and I agree that conversion of the hearts of our countrymen is a key part of America's future success or failure. Introspection on America's hubris and the bad things we've done to other countries is needed.

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More details on India / China reproachment. Seems US pressure on India backfired:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-was-inadvertently-responsible-sino-indo-border-de-escalation-deal

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Googly-goop: Ray, you most likely meant “rapprochement” instead of “reproachment!”

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Yup, we do have the knack for bringing adversaries or competitors together!

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Exactly

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This is a very major development, another own goal by the Neocons.

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