Enough time has elapsed since Prigozhin met his end in a plane crash northwest of Moscow that we may be safe in speculating a bit further on causes and motives. Further, I'm satisfied that this was a case of sabotage--probably explosives in the landing gear wells in the wings--rather than a simple shoot down. It was a “hit”. Still, the details—and, especially, who was behind it—must remain speculative. There are, at least at this point, multiple possibilities that cannot be ruled out.
"“Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”
Yeah. He was competing with the Russian state against the state's express interests and directions. He's gone now, and will be forgotten quickly. The article explains it all very well. It also explains why the Russian state didn't regard the people on the plane as "innocent."
Are you suggesting someone was trying to rob Prigozhin in the middle of... an airplane flight and in the ensuing struggle the gun went off and hit a fuel tank? 🤔
Prizoghin must have been crazy. One of the greatest actions Putin ever took was to eliminate the oligarchs from Russian life. P should have known that he couldn't screw around with Vlad. He deserved to die. The only shame is that innocent people also died in the hit (the stewardess, pilot, etc.). Anyway, if they didn't realise it already, this is another message to the West that Putin means business and Russia's struggle is existential.
Exactly my question. And the same decision could have been accomplished without the taking of innocent lives, but in a lower profile way. This way, not only makes Mr. Prigozhin’s death an obvious, deliberate act, possibly angering Wagnerites and compounding issues, but makes Mr. Putin look like the instigator, whether he was or not.
1. "the same decision could have been accomplished without the taking of innocent lives, 2. but in a lower profile way."
1. Perhaps. 2. But it wasn't. Yes, this looks like a deliberate act, which it was. But we'll likely never know whether he [Putin] was or not. But as a working hypothesis we have to go with state actors, and the ones who could arrange this would most likely be RF agents.
I did address his reaction. It struck me as arms length. As for the 8 or 9 others, some were complicit in the actual coup/mutiny, like Utkin. All would have been close to the man Putin accused of betraying the nation. Putin never said the usual stuff about being saddened by Prigozhin's death and so forth. He acknowledged that he had made some positive contributions but also said he made many mistakes. He stopped just short of saying, his mistakes are done with.
I'm not necessarily criticizing Putin. A wartime leader in a complex situation may have to make decisions he'd prefer not to make. He may have agreed to this line of action because he thought it was the best choice in the circumstances. I may be wrong, but it strikes me as the most plausible.
You may well be right. I'm still doubtful. Did Putin see the flight manifest in advance? Did he know the names and degree of Wagner-related guilt of the other 8 or 9 victims? The same Wagner which single-handedly fought Ukraine on behalf of Russia for most of 2022? Which victims had wives and children? And the pilot had to die, too? Sorry, it doesn't sound like Putin to me but of course I could be wrong. FWIW, I would have thought Putin/FSB couldhave easily found plenty of ways to take Prigozhin out with less collateral damage.
"Did Putin see the flight manifest in advance? Did he know the names and degree of Wagner-related guilt of the other 8 or 9 victims?"
All these issues are why I believe this was a state run op, rather than private revenge--even, as has been suggested, military officers angered at the deaths of their comrades. This took a lot of coordination. As for your other questions, the point is that the decision was made with full knowledge. A state agency like the FSB knew that Prigozhin flew with a retinue--in this case in two planes. They could have coordinated easily with the airport--probably did so on a SOP basis--to have the manifest, have access to the ground crew--all, well within the ability of a security agency. I would argue that the RF state security apparatus did not consider anyone within Prigozhin's inner circle who traveled with him and worked for him to be not guilty. I would also argue that, given those considerations this was a very clean way to do it.
I disagree with all these versions, but Gordon Hahn is a very well regarded specialist in Russian matters. He doesn't see a state run op as out of bounds, including authorized by Putin.
Mark, what do you think of the theory I’ve seen here and there that the Prigozhin “coup attempt” was a sham? That the CIA gave Wagner money to overthrow Putin, Priggy laughed in their faces, and the CIA downed his plane in retaliation?
And of course, there are those stories floating around that Prigozhin wasn’t on the plane at all.
It’s so impossible to know what to believe these days.
I don’t know Joe, I kinda like the idea, but how about we appoint an independent counsel to look into Trump’s whereabouts at the time and what associations he might have developed while he was funneling information to Putin during his Presidency and then we make the announcement of the indictment on Christmas Eve? Hey, if we’re lucky we might even score Chris Wray to help us fabricate, er, I mean locate some hidden documents and then get Bob Mueller to help with the Christmas Eve thing. Whacha think, you in?
I very much doubt that the world is wondering anything of the sort. As for the BRICS countries--especially those in Africa and the Middle East where Wagner was active--all doubt about who is in charge has been removed. Just a day or two before the assassination Prigozhin had been in Africa trying to reclaim Wagner's role in in defiance of Putin.
Interestingly, I watched a video yesterday where Scott Ritter laid out his reasoning for why Putin didn't do it. He seems to know as much or more than anyone else in the public eye about what might be going on behind the scenes, but without additional information, it's only a guess as to who's responsible.
I listened to a panel of Ritter Johnson and McGovern on the topic the other day. None had any particular reasons for saying Putin had no part, as far as I could tell.
Cui bono? I don't really see much benefit to anyone except the Russian state. I don't see anyone in the West--outside the usual pundits--caring much. Certainly not enough to go to the amount of trouble and risk involved.
"Let's all just admit that "We Don't Know". ... Putin is **not** the most like author of Prigozhin's demise."
You seem to have some pretty definite views, despite the "we don't know". Do I get to speculate, too?
"the natural way would have been for poor old Prigie to have been murdered by a rogue militant while in Africa. That would be a lot easier and neater than blowing up a jet with innocent people on board -- and innocent people on the ground if the plane had crashed in the wrong place."
In fact that wasn't done. And yet the means for conducting the attack as it did actually happen would have been far easier if carried out by Russian state actors--access to the plane, access to flight info, to the ground crew. For anyone other than the Russian state to have attempted that would have likely raised alarm bells at the airport and within Wagner security. The "innocence" of others on board is a matter of POV. The flight personnel were likely Wagner employees--standard security for a mafia-like figure like Prigozhin. They would not necessarily have been regarded as "innocent" by the Russian state, since their presence would have been regarded as support for a traitor.
1. I had been under the impression that both jets took off but only one arrived at destination. Meaning, the saboteurs knew which plane was to be targeted. Of course, both planes could have been sabotaged, but the explosives detonated remotely only on Prigozhin's plane. Which plane that was could have been determined at time of departure or possibly in flight (monitoring comms, etc.). Either way suggests an inside job--that is, inside the RF by people who could access that information by dint of authority. Also technical abilities usually associated with state actors, as in Nordstream. This tends to exclude non-Russian actors. Thus splitting the teams would have made no difference--obfuscating from outsiders is one thing, quite distinct from trying to conceal from state authorities on the inside. Distance = ~400 miles.
2. Consider Putin's quite perfunctory remarks regarding the downing. Condolences were directed only to the families. Prigozhin's actions on behalf of Russia were very briefly acknowledged but Putin made a point of stating that Prigozhin had "made *many* mistakes." Ramzan Kadyrov's remarks that he had tried to explain to Prigozhin that the current situation had changed everything, but that Prigozhin continued to place personal ambitions above all else--presumably national interests--seems also very significant.
Love the old Churchill quote in this context:
"“Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”
WSJ article makes me inclined towards Putin:
https://archive.is/20230827174151/https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/prigozhin-wagner-plane-crash-last-days-2c44dd5c
Yeah. He was competing with the Russian state against the state's express interests and directions. He's gone now, and will be forgotten quickly. The article explains it all very well. It also explains why the Russian state didn't regard the people on the plane as "innocent."
Seth Rich could not be reached for comment.
Are you suggesting someone was trying to rob Prigozhin in the middle of... an airplane flight and in the ensuing struggle the gun went off and hit a fuel tank? 🤔
Prizoghin must have been crazy. One of the greatest actions Putin ever took was to eliminate the oligarchs from Russian life. P should have known that he couldn't screw around with Vlad. He deserved to die. The only shame is that innocent people also died in the hit (the stewardess, pilot, etc.). Anyway, if they didn't realise it already, this is another message to the West that Putin means business and Russia's struggle is existential.
Something of this sort seems to be the most plausible explanation.
Putin authorized it. No doubt in my mind.
I do not miss him.
Obviously a psycho. They can be useful in war, but not when they become loose cannons.
I think Putin had the plane bombed. Gets rid of a traitor with some plausible deniability.
But why kill 8 or 9 others in the process? I don't see Putin ordering it.
Is this the reaction of a killer: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66609678?
Exactly my question. And the same decision could have been accomplished without the taking of innocent lives, but in a lower profile way. This way, not only makes Mr. Prigozhin’s death an obvious, deliberate act, possibly angering Wagnerites and compounding issues, but makes Mr. Putin look like the instigator, whether he was or not.
1. "the same decision could have been accomplished without the taking of innocent lives, 2. but in a lower profile way."
1. Perhaps. 2. But it wasn't. Yes, this looks like a deliberate act, which it was. But we'll likely never know whether he [Putin] was or not. But as a working hypothesis we have to go with state actors, and the ones who could arrange this would most likely be RF agents.
I did address his reaction. It struck me as arms length. As for the 8 or 9 others, some were complicit in the actual coup/mutiny, like Utkin. All would have been close to the man Putin accused of betraying the nation. Putin never said the usual stuff about being saddened by Prigozhin's death and so forth. He acknowledged that he had made some positive contributions but also said he made many mistakes. He stopped just short of saying, his mistakes are done with.
I'm not necessarily criticizing Putin. A wartime leader in a complex situation may have to make decisions he'd prefer not to make. He may have agreed to this line of action because he thought it was the best choice in the circumstances. I may be wrong, but it strikes me as the most plausible.
You may well be right. I'm still doubtful. Did Putin see the flight manifest in advance? Did he know the names and degree of Wagner-related guilt of the other 8 or 9 victims? The same Wagner which single-handedly fought Ukraine on behalf of Russia for most of 2022? Which victims had wives and children? And the pilot had to die, too? Sorry, it doesn't sound like Putin to me but of course I could be wrong. FWIW, I would have thought Putin/FSB couldhave easily found plenty of ways to take Prigozhin out with less collateral damage.
"Did Putin see the flight manifest in advance? Did he know the names and degree of Wagner-related guilt of the other 8 or 9 victims?"
All these issues are why I believe this was a state run op, rather than private revenge--even, as has been suggested, military officers angered at the deaths of their comrades. This took a lot of coordination. As for your other questions, the point is that the decision was made with full knowledge. A state agency like the FSB knew that Prigozhin flew with a retinue--in this case in two planes. They could have coordinated easily with the airport--probably did so on a SOP basis--to have the manifest, have access to the ground crew--all, well within the ability of a security agency. I would argue that the RF state security apparatus did not consider anyone within Prigozhin's inner circle who traveled with him and worked for him to be not guilty. I would also argue that, given those considerations this was a very clean way to do it.
https://gordonhahn.com/2023/08/24/prigozhins-demise-versions/
I disagree with all these versions, but Gordon Hahn is a very well regarded specialist in Russian matters. He doesn't see a state run op as out of bounds, including authorized by Putin.
Mark, what do you think of the theory I’ve seen here and there that the Prigozhin “coup attempt” was a sham? That the CIA gave Wagner money to overthrow Putin, Priggy laughed in their faces, and the CIA downed his plane in retaliation?
And of course, there are those stories floating around that Prigozhin wasn’t on the plane at all.
It’s so impossible to know what to believe these days.
No, it was definitely for real. That's where I think Larry Johnson at Sonar21 got it wrong.
Agreed.
I don't buy that. It was too much of an upset domestically.
Trump did it. How’s that?
Or most probably it was climate change playing havoc with those ailerons.
I don’t know Joe, I kinda like the idea, but how about we appoint an independent counsel to look into Trump’s whereabouts at the time and what associations he might have developed while he was funneling information to Putin during his Presidency and then we make the announcement of the indictment on Christmas Eve? Hey, if we’re lucky we might even score Chris Wray to help us fabricate, er, I mean locate some hidden documents and then get Bob Mueller to help with the Christmas Eve thing. Whacha think, you in?
Well you know Mark keeps pointing out that Putin is a lawyer. Maybe we should get him appointed as special counsel in that case.
I'd love him to sort our our evil oligarchs: "Mr Soros, Mr Gates, your plane is now ready for boarding"
Damn! What a great idea! :-)
'Have I no friend will rid me of this living fear?' Shakespeare, Richard ll. A direct command may have been unnecessary.
I like this best of all. Putin just said, stay out of the way, do not interfere with the wishes of others.
I very much doubt that the world is wondering anything of the sort. As for the BRICS countries--especially those in Africa and the Middle East where Wagner was active--all doubt about who is in charge has been removed. Just a day or two before the assassination Prigozhin had been in Africa trying to reclaim Wagner's role in in defiance of Putin.
Interestingly, I watched a video yesterday where Scott Ritter laid out his reasoning for why Putin didn't do it. He seems to know as much or more than anyone else in the public eye about what might be going on behind the scenes, but without additional information, it's only a guess as to who's responsible.
I listened to a panel of Ritter Johnson and McGovern on the topic the other day. None had any particular reasons for saying Putin had no part, as far as I could tell.
Cui bono? I don't really see much benefit to anyone except the Russian state. I don't see anyone in the West--outside the usual pundits--caring much. Certainly not enough to go to the amount of trouble and risk involved.
"Let's all just admit that "We Don't Know". ... Putin is **not** the most like author of Prigozhin's demise."
You seem to have some pretty definite views, despite the "we don't know". Do I get to speculate, too?
"the natural way would have been for poor old Prigie to have been murdered by a rogue militant while in Africa. That would be a lot easier and neater than blowing up a jet with innocent people on board -- and innocent people on the ground if the plane had crashed in the wrong place."
In fact that wasn't done. And yet the means for conducting the attack as it did actually happen would have been far easier if carried out by Russian state actors--access to the plane, access to flight info, to the ground crew. For anyone other than the Russian state to have attempted that would have likely raised alarm bells at the airport and within Wagner security. The "innocence" of others on board is a matter of POV. The flight personnel were likely Wagner employees--standard security for a mafia-like figure like Prigozhin. They would not necessarily have been regarded as "innocent" by the Russian state, since their presence would have been regarded as support for a traitor.
I think Larry Johnson is correct regarding the mechanism of the sabotage. As for the motive, I'll side with Simplicius for the most part.
1. I had been under the impression that both jets took off but only one arrived at destination. Meaning, the saboteurs knew which plane was to be targeted. Of course, both planes could have been sabotaged, but the explosives detonated remotely only on Prigozhin's plane. Which plane that was could have been determined at time of departure or possibly in flight (monitoring comms, etc.). Either way suggests an inside job--that is, inside the RF by people who could access that information by dint of authority. Also technical abilities usually associated with state actors, as in Nordstream. This tends to exclude non-Russian actors. Thus splitting the teams would have made no difference--obfuscating from outsiders is one thing, quite distinct from trying to conceal from state authorities on the inside. Distance = ~400 miles.
2. Consider Putin's quite perfunctory remarks regarding the downing. Condolences were directed only to the families. Prigozhin's actions on behalf of Russia were very briefly acknowledged but Putin made a point of stating that Prigozhin had "made *many* mistakes." Ramzan Kadyrov's remarks that he had tried to explain to Prigozhin that the current situation had changed everything, but that Prigozhin continued to place personal ambitions above all else--presumably national interests--seems also very significant.
Just heard Alastair Crooke as of Friday:
1. Two planes took off, one crashed, the other made a U-turn back to Moscow.
2. Missile attack looks improbable.
3. Prigozhin was probably to some degree a GRU "dangle" to Western Intel.
4. Prigozhin genuinely seemed unhappy at the idea that Wagner was working for Russia not for himself (citing appearance at Kremlin).
5. Fails to mention Putin's statement: P. made many mistakes.
Will Tucker fly there to meet him? Just asking for my aircraft insurance friends.