War Update: Ukraine Front, Chasiv Yar

Those who have been following the war news will be aware that Russia has claimed that it killed a Polish general in Chasiv Yar. The Poles claim the general died of “unexplained” natural causes. Chasiv Yar is a heavily fortified town, a key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in Donbas, not far from Bakhmut. It was through Chasiv Yar that supplies and reinforcements were fed into Bakhmut. After taking Bakhmut the Russians had paused their advance short of Chasiv Yar during the Ukrainian “counteroffensive,” but are now on the offensive toward Chasiv Yar. The news about the terror attack near Moscow has obscured this story, but it is important.

First, we turn to a Russian site that reports on the Russian strike at Chasiv Yar:

Information has appeared about the arrival of senior NATO officers at the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Chasov Yar before the strike of the Russian Iskander

Note the reference to “senior NATO officers” in the plural. The Russians are reporting that there were senior Polish and American officers in the bunker that was attacked, and possibly others.

Information about a missile attack on the command post of the Ukrainian army in the Chasov Yar area has been confirmed. The Russian army is attacking this city, which the enemy has turned into a key defense hub west of Artyomovsk [Bakhmut].

It is reported that the attack on the underground command post, the location of which was identified by Russian intelligence, was carried out using Iskander-M OTRK missiles. According to the latest data, it was at this command post that some time before the strike, representatives of the command of NATO countries, including from the United States and Poland, arrived. NATO senior officers are involved in planning a defensive operation in the territories of the Russian Donbass occupied by the Kyiv regime.

Against this background, special attention is drawn to the statement of the Polish side about the death of career general Adam Marczak. About this today in the material from 19:12 reported "Military Review". The Polish side calls the death of General Marczak “unexpected (sudden) and caused by natural causes.” Moreover, it is added that the general died “while off duty.”

Meanwhile, I recall several cases of “unexpected” deaths of American and Canadian generals who, as it later turned out, “were visiting Ukraine.” In this regard, the hypothesis that the Polish general could have been among the senior officers of NATO countries who were sent to Chasov Yar to carry out military planning does not seem completely incredible.

A substack article reports on this incident while also providing analysis on the significance of events at Chasiv Yar:

A Polish General Dies in Chasiv Yar

Because this article is very informative I’ll excerpt a fair amount of it:

Chasiv Yar was extremely important during the battle for Bakhmut.  It was the feeder for troops being sent into Bakhmut, and for rotation of soldiers fighting there.  It was the source of supply of ammunition, food and medical support for Ukraine’s army in the city.  Chasiv Yar was also the command center not only for the Ukrainians, but for their Western military advisers.

That latter role is what has again become clear in the last week of March, as the Russians successfully bombed a six-story deep command bunker in Chasiv Yar on March 26th.  According to the Russians, the bunker was hit by one or more Iskander missiles.  The Iskander is a short range ballistic missile that can operate at hypersonic speed (Mach 5.9).  It has different types of warheads including bunker busters.  The warhead size is between 1,000 and 1,500 lbs.

Inside that command center were very senior NATO officers, some of whom were killed.

[Background info re the Polish general, Adam Marczak.]

Various Telegraph channels report that other NATO officers were either killed or wounded in the attack at Chasiv Yar.  According to these accounts, some of the wounded were hastily evacuated to Poland.  We don't know the names, the ranks, or the nationality of any of those killed or wounded other than Marczak.

Many analysts think that the Russians will soon take Chasiv Yar, even though it is heavily defended. ...

It is unusual for such high ranking NATO military officers to be so close to the line of contact with the Russian army.  The only reason for them being there is an act of desperation: deep concern that the Russians might successfully push through, endangering the entire second tier defenses that Ukraine is trying to build to prevent the Russian army driving toward the Dnieper, potentially splitting Ukraine's forces and endangering Kiev.

For some time it has looked like the Russians would launch a really big new offensive.  The only question has been the goal of a Russian operation.  Some think it would be Kharkiv. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second largest city.  ...

Chasiv Yar and the fighting around that town now going on seems like a more important and immediate target for the Russians. The fact that it is full of top NATO personnel also says it is a very important strategic asset of the Ukrainians.

Ukraine's "new" military strategy and its new overall military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi is aimed at buying time and delaying any Russian advance.  To do this the Ukrainians are building trenches and tank traps and other hardened defensive systems.  At the same time, Ukraine is trying to divert Russia by artillery and bombing attacks on Russian cities and parallel attempts to attack Crimea.  There has been a significant increase of NATO operations in the Black Sea, probably to help the Ukrainians target Crimea and targets inside Russia.  …

Probably in the next week or two we will see what happens in Chasiv Yar and whether the Ukrainians can hold the town and thwart the Russian advance.  If they cannot, then NATO will have to think up an alternative that could include opening negotiations with Russia.  This won't please President Biden or his national security team, who prefer a prolonged fight in Ukraine.  Olaf Scholz reports that a number of unnamed NATO players already are meeting about some sort of negotiated deal, although so far he says the Russians are not included in the process.  Depending on what happens in the next few weeks, Scholz and his colleagues better hurry.

Read the above in the context of repeated warnings about a coming Ukrainian collapse.