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susan mullen's avatar

John McCain already has a street named after him in Kiev. 7/12/26, "I think [Lindsey] Graham will soon have a street named after him in Kyiv as is already the case of John McCain."....Marcel Gascón Barberá

@marcelgascon twitter/x....https://x.com/marcelgascon/status/2076223234538663993

hope4gaia's avatar

“Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “A special salute to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, and Commander of the United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Because of them, and all members of the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World, BY FAR, the Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran — and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION.”

Dear Lord, when is someone going to put this lying lunatic in a padded cell where he belongs. It's waaay past time.

Nobody's Fool's avatar

"I’ve been working on another big Theory of Everything. I’m always trying to determine “How do I make sense of this?” Is all of this just what happens… the end of empire, knuckleheads get in charge, is it pure incompetence?"

I can't make sense of this. No one can AFAICT. It looks like the end of the U.S. hegemony, not a minute too soon. Trump's endless lies and gaslighting. Erratic nonsense. All on top of his worsening dementia.

dissonant1's avatar

It is not just the exposure of incompetence, it is the flailing about like a fish caught on a hook. As convulsive as it may be to the West, the sooner Iran and Russia can put an end to the pretensions of the Anglo-Zionist Empire the better - for the world as a whole and for the West, too. The Trumpian nonsense will prove to be short lived indeed within that context.

Alex's avatar

Article in the Jerusalem Post on the Ben Gurion kerfuffle:

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-902450

Sounds like the US is running out of bases to land irreplaceable tanker aircraft, and is now occupying 70% of Ben Gurion's operational capacity, leading to economic losses and potential civilian flight cancellations.

Iran going after the logistical backbone is both less escalatory and more effective than going after the assets directly.

"Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics" - Gen. Omar Bradley

awildgoose's avatar

I'm still struggling to understand why Iran is not targeting the tanker aircraft more aggressively.

Same goes for Putin and the Banderite leadership. Especially after he insisted removal of that ideology was a key goal of the SMO from day one.

Alex's avatar

My theory:

Iran did take out tankers early on, when they got in range of AD. They're being a lot more careful now, since those things aren't easy to replace, and likely keep them out of range. We're seeing ground-ground missile attacks from HIMARS now as well, as available airbases shrink.

MES has speculated that Iran doesn't hit launch bases as aggressively as they could, to prevent Arab casualties, but that might change depending on what the US is targeting (e.g. civilian infra).

Re Ukraine, I think there's an unwritten rule that you don't assassinate the leadership. The "denazification" war goal plays more the the Nuremberg trial / hang them by the neck direction, at least that's my understanding.

Secondly, and that's pure theory, Russia isn't at war with Ukraine, it's at war with NATO. As such, Ukraine used to be a convenient battlefield to drain and destabilise NATO on, with low escalation risk. They consider Trump insane, and a rapid advance could trigger an emotional reaction.

Mark Wauck's avatar

Yes, interesting theory. It's been apparent--Trump even stated this yesterday--that US strikes have been pretty much limited to only along the coastline. IOW, about the range for HIMARS launched missiles from some of the GCC countries. I was very surprised to see the heavy use of HIMARS launchers for what amounted to simply cross Gulf missile strikes, and your theory accounts for that. Also ...

Some of the really heavy bombers that carry the big strike packages have either been sent home (B52s) or are nowhere to be seen (B1s, B2s)--extended maintenance? Fear of losses? F22s have been pulled out and at least one or two squadrons of F15Es have also been sent back to UK. All of this sounds like heavy reliance on F35, which is high maintenance even by US standards and it can't carry the loads that the bombers can.

Speaking of Russian advances, I just saw that the fortress city of Kramatorsk is now only 6 km from the frontline. What I'm reading is that Russians are advancing rapidly in small assault groups, but that consolidation of advances goes more slowly due to drones. The consolidation involves careful clearing operations.

dissonant1's avatar

They asked for it.. and now they are complaining?

It's Just Me's avatar

We're destroying our country for their ends and then they do this?!

Reminds me of the old Steely Dan song, "I'm a fool to do your dirty work, oh yeah..."

Piquet's avatar

Maybe someone has already commented, but Trump's over-the-top comments remind me of the WW2 "propaganda" reels playing in theaters all across the States (and at all the overseas bases). Does anyone remember those?

Mark Wauck's avatar

I saw some when I was much younger.

Mark Wauck's avatar

Preemptive strikes?

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

·

1h

IRGC launched Missiles & Drones at several storage facilities for weapons and parts of enemy vessels and aircraft at the Sheikh Isa base in Bahrain  — Statement

They also attacked a launchpad for enemy MQ9 drones at the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait, destroying or damaging several drones 

"These attacks were in response to the transgressions committed this afternoon by the American child-killing army, which targeted several of our armed forces' coastal stations."

Several direct impacts confirmed.

Mark Wauck's avatar

As you can see from my recent comments, today Iran didn't wait to go tat for the US tit. They've already been striking at US positions in the Gulf.

Ray-SoCa's avatar

Interesting…

- why so many U.S. bases in Jordan?

- no Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in Israel, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia

Mark Wauck's avatar

First part is easy. Bases in Jordan are 1) to defend Israel from incoming from the east, and 2) to launch attacks to the east without being based too close to the target.

Second part not totally easy. KSA? Iran undoubtedly wants to be a major influence in the region, and they know that requires working relations. That has happened in the months before the most recent US attack. But KSA now attacking Yemen may change all that.

Iraq is another interesting story. As a host to US forces still--albeit unwilling--with a government still under US thumb, and a base for Kurdish proxy forces, Iraq is a logical candidate for strikes. OTOH, as a heavily Shiite country with lots of oil Iran has to take the long view.

Israel? That will come.

Mark Wauck's avatar

This is Iraqi org. US is trying to get Iraq government--we placed our choice of PM--to attack these Shiite militias:

The security official in Kata'ib Hezbollah:

If war breaks out against the Islamic Republic, the participation of the resistance forces will be immediate and resolute, as this decision is tied to doctrine and there is no compromise on it.

Clyde Griffith's avatar

In the Jack Rivers article you linked earlier, Ray-SoValleygurl,

https://middleeastreport.substack.com/p/the-khamenei-succession-us-deceit

Rivers profiled Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's representative to UN:

"Tehran is assembling a comprehensive dossier of evidence documenting the war crimes committed by the United States and the terrorist ‘Israeli’ entity, with the aim of holding the perpetrators accountable in international forums"

Are Iranians coordinating kinetic actions with a view to a legal case, ensuring that the defender does not break the law in the act of defending?

Does USA have any comparable strategy or personnel?

___

PS Noticing how many Iranians have surnames reflecting a place in Iran, presumably a birth place. Profound attachment to the place/nation/land/culture.

Explains Trump's split personality: Donald NewYork MaraLago.

ebear's avatar

Full name: President for Life, Donald Elizondo Mountain Dew NewYork MaraLago Camacho Trump.

Mark Wauck's avatar

"many Iranians have surnames reflecting a place"

Not unusual in many cultures--place names, professions, etc., certainly in eastern Europe.

Polish examples. Kowalski is an adjectival form of the word for a "smith". Młynarz means a "miller", both common enough also in English. My father's birth name is an adjectival form of a place name--not unusual with names for Polish szlachta. The English name Lincoln is a combination of two Celtic and Latin words for a place. Lin from a word for a lake and coln from Latin colonia.

Bronek (ben) Chapinski's avatar

Someday when I have time I must try to find -either in old books, dissertations, documents- the name Wauck. When residing in Poland kids in language classes -I think, but can't recall, were told about a famous Polonian writer with that name. In fact, I think in the Polonian Center, somewhere near Nowy Swiat are books by a Wauck. Anyway, to make a long story short, when I saw your name, I had to hook on the group. Apparently the genes have remained decent, solid and strong. I hope you had many children.

Mark Wauck's avatar

My father's name was Wachowski, which I take to be related to a tiny village called Wachów, near Częstochowa. His ancestors came here in the late 1860s, right after the Civil War. He said he made the name Wauck up when he was an undergrad because it looked German. He pronounced it "walk". I was once in Germany and a German "corrected" my pronunciation of the name, apparently thinking that it was a German name. We always thought it was simply a "made up" name, but it turns out that there are a few people with that name who are unrelated. Another rare name similar to it is Wauk.

It's Just Me's avatar

I bought my first home from a Polish widow. Since we were both Catholic, she took a shine to me and called me the son she never had. I was single at the time.

She told me that the word 'pizza' is similar to, or the same word, in Polish for the female genitalia. She was confused, at first, by the frequent references to the word.

An amusing, if somewhat risque, anecdote.

Clyde Griffith's avatar

That's funny.

All of my grandparents and my Mother were born in Italy; my Mother was 12 when she arrived. Being called Know Nothing was so annoying to her that she learned English with great precision and never taught us children Italian: We were to be American.

I grew up in a neighborhood that was DEI + 15 Minute before it was a Thing.: Italian, Irish, Polish, later Hungarian men walked to the steel mills. Our parish school was Polish - St. Stanislaus Kostka. I learned to pray in Polish before I learned A B Cs. Girls were to wear a long taffeta dress, different color for each grade, for church processions and for plays, where we wore white wigs and danced a semi-classical dance (I remember the name but I'd butcher it trying to spell it).

Bronek (ben) Chapinski's avatar

Whatever, I know nothing about the name Wachowski. All I know is your father, grandfather or relative, was a famous or well known Polonian writer. It is simply a fact. Besides writing, he might have been an activist for PolAm culture. I doubt if it was your dad, cuz if I recall correctly his writings were in the 1930s. I could be wrong.

I found you once mentioning you took Polish language lessons. Wauck wrote something to the effect that PolAms would lose their ability to function in Polish. He might have been involved in the Polonian press/media. Back then, the global and US Polonian media was extensively large.

My granddaughter's birthday is in a few days. I'm on overload. When time prevails, there will be n efforts to check it out and get back to you.

Oh, I found it fascinating that he altered his name to fit in. that puzzled me. I think the Wauck I read about was from Milwaukee. I could be mistaken. When my family arrived members of the same family left registration with different names. Some had "Ski" endings, Others "Sky." Beginning of names were (also) spelled differently. Tried to type more.

Ray-SoCa's avatar

My last name is spelled so many different ways. Same pronunciation. I’m always having to correct the spelling.

Mark Wauck's avatar

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

6m

BREAKING: Iran has launched the largest attack on Bahrain of the war with over 30 missiles targeting US assets, including a Khorramshahr missile carrying a cluster munitions warhead.

Continuous and heavy explosions reported across Bahrain minutes ago, with residents reporting windows shaking. This follows the attack on Kuwait an hour ago.

Joe's avatar

US Plan appears to be maintaining a good portion of the Navy in the Strait for ' as long as it takes'

US

US daily costs for sustained control are material / Estimated:

A single carrier strike group (carrier + escorts, air wing, ~6,500 personnel) runs ~$3–6.5 million/day in operations (fuel, maintenance, personnel, munitions). With multiple carriers (e.g., Abraham Lincoln, George H.W. Bush), supporting ships, aircraft, and logistics in theater, incremental daily costs likely fall in the $50–200+ million range depending on intensity (patrols, intercepts, readiness).

Is the Trump plan - keep a Fleet in the Strait for as long as it takes - it appears to be

The Cost to the US is high

IRAN

Sustainability: With reserves and domestic revenue (even at depressed oil output), plus potential Chinese barter or smuggling or limited exports, Iran could plausibly maintain this for 6–12+ months before reserve exhaustion forces harder choices.

6 Months For US and Iran - looking at roughly 50 to 1 in expense

US

For another 6 months of sustained US naval/air presence and control efforts in the Strait of Hormuz (under a harassment/disruption scenario with periodic Iranian asymmetric actions), an estimate as a sovereign budget analyst is in the range of $50 billion in additional direct expenditures.

IRAN

For Iran maintaining a low-intensity asymmetric campaign (sporadic drones, limited missiles, speedboats/mines for harassment to deter shipping and assert de facto control), my fiscal modeling estimates their direct additional military expenditure over 6 months at roughly $1–4 billion

========================

- simply rough estimates

.

Bronek (ben) Chapinski's avatar

Joe, I guess it's okay if Trump expands the country's debt. Remember when DT and Elon Musk had their fight? It was after Musk saved billions for the politician's corrupt USAID piggy bank. Musk bitched about what debt would do to the children's future.

Trump had a melt down, was immediately going to sell his Tesla gift auto. Of course, Elon found a way back into The Donald's den. After all, working for Uncle Sam can often be quite lucrative. No doubt Elon picked up billions connecting with Capitol Hill... W/O Uncle Sam he wouldn't be a trillionaire.

Joe, surely millions found remarks similar to your post hitting home. The ability of our citizenry are like the souls of Palestinians locked up (helpless!). All those US soldiers, navy personnel, month after month, adding to our Nat.'l debt. Not only is it unnecessary and harmful and dangerous for our boys... But, Joe, it's all for what?

Oh, I forgot Trump recently declared it's to protect the USA. What'll be our Nat.'l debt before be leaves office? In our land of lawfare maybe Madam Adelson will give billion to somehow keep him in office. Hey, congress creatures could use the extra rewards. Impossible? Stranger things have occurred. If that's too risky what will Peter Thiel, Paul Singer and brethren do?

Nutmeg's avatar

I don't remember where I saw the clip - maybe it was on X - but Musk left DOGE shortly after he said in an interview there were magic money machines that just printed money as needed. Go back to Mark's prior post as I had a link to the budget deficits since 2000, when the national debt was a tiny $3 trillion.

ebear's avatar

Does your model include resupply from Russia via the Caspian Sea?

Joe's avatar

Effectively taken from listening to Ambassador Freeman

Incredibly experienced, intelligent and of course articulate

but this rough summary perhaps captures his statements/thoughts

IRAN US - WAITING GAME

Iran can do nothing

yet accomplish everything

US Must do everything

yet risks accomplishing nothing

If Iran is able to exist and keep the strait closed

Trump has spent 100s of Billions and Lost

BOTH UNDERWATER

Who is able to hold their breath longer

.