War Update 7/14/26

I’ll be spending time on the Middle East down the page, but I want to provide two links regarding the situation with the war on Russia. As we’ve been stressing, the Ukrainian drone offensive is very much an American run offensive—Trump himself characterized it as an “escalation” intended to force Russia to “negotiate.” As explained, what this means in long term goals is to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire prior first and then to negotiate from a position of weakness. During the ceasefire NATO forces would flood into Ukraine, achieving the war goals of pushing NATO into a position that would threaten the integrity of the Russian Federation. However, the immediate goal of the drone campaign is to influence the upcoming Russian elections to somehow oust Putin by motivating Russian public opinion against the war. If this reminds you of the Anglo-Zionist strategy that was supposed to break Iran apart, well, you’re on to something.

Yesterday Scott Ritter gave a very articulate excellent explanation of the actual state of the war in Ukraine, in the second half of his appearance on Danny Davis’ show. Commenter Richard Cook has a substack that gets into similar territory, explaining the building Russian offensive that no drone offensive can blunt. This is more of a big picture overview:

Globalists’ Last Throw Before the Curtain Falls: Putin Says Bigger Russia Strikes To Hammer Kiev - Hints At Oreshnik Use | Zelensky Says Kiev Out Of Air Defense

Russia Truth

Jul 13, 2026

The structural architecture of the transatlantic security regime has entered a phase of advanced systemic decomposition. As the physical foundations of the Western-backed proxy space undergo a rapid, multi-axis collapse, the institutional response from the G7 technocracy and its mainstream media organs has completely detached from the material laws of industrial warfare. Trapped in a catastrophic loop of military exhaustion, severe energy deficits, and deep geopolitical miscalculations, the Western ruling class has abandoned rational statecraft. Instead, they have retreated into a state of clinical narrative luxury—a strange, artificial euphoria designed to mask an absolute strategic defeat.

While the Trump administration remains paralyzed by an un-winnable “must-lose” confrontation over the chokepoints of the Persian Gulf, the Russian High Command is methodically executing its multi-stage plan for the complete territorial and logistical liquidation of Ukraine. From the final closure of the Donbass fortress belt to the total, unhindered command of the airspace over Kiev, the multi-polar axis is demonstrating that industrial volume, domestic stability, and sovereign resource control are the definitive arbiters of modern conflict.

By contrast, Chris Martenson today focuses on the Ukrainian drone offensive in the Sea of Azov that has struck numerous Russian commercial ships of various types.

Details are difficult to come by, but my understanding is that the 30-40 tankers of various sorts (and other ships) were not fully loaded but were instead headed toward the major Russian oil terminus on the Black Sea (Novorossiysk), which has for years been a major target for the Anglo-Zionist attacks. Make no mistake about this—this drone offensive is a major blow to Russia, because it has forced Russia to shut down diesel exports for three weeks. Whether that shutdown will extend for a longer period is not known. On the other hand, this is a bit of an own goal. Russia itself will suffer no shortage of diesel for its military or domestic needs, but this is a real blow for the rest of the world that relied on two major sources for diesel: Russia, and the Persian Gulf—there are other sources, but these two are huge for the world economy. In just a few hours the price of diesel went up $10. You can read more on this story:

The Energy Crisis Is Worse Than You Think

I’ve been working on another big Theory of Everything. I’m always trying to determine “How do I make sense of this?” Is all of this just what happens… the end of empire, knuckleheads get in charge, is it pure incompetence?

But turning to the Middle East, first and foremost the shakedown continues—accompanied by the usual Trumpian gaslighting. The bottom line is the protection racket—it’s a racket because, despite Trump’s claims about blockades and the awesome US military, the Gulf State patsies are getting no protection:

Trump backs away from Strait of Hormuz fee

President Donald Trump is seen at the White House on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. (Alex Brandon/AP)

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he is backing away from the U.S. charging a 20% fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz, replacing the measure with “Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States.”

“Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “A special salute to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, and Commander of the United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Because of them, and all members of the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World, BY FAR, the Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran — and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION.”

“We will therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything have to do with Iranian cargo. Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States,” Trump continued.

“Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future,” the president added, noting that, “As everyone is aware, we have the largest Dollar Investment into the United States, of any Country in History, but these new Investments will make that Number even larger, and we will see Factories, Plants, and Equipment pour into the United States at Historic levels, which will create additional millions of High Paying AMERICAN Jobs!

“The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people, including 52,000 protestors, are OVER and, most importantly, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” Trump concluded.

Meanwhile …

Last night Iran responded to the renewed US attacks. However, I want to recommend an article that commenter Ray SoCa linked to. The article is dated July 12, two days ago, but it gives an excellent and detailed overview of the way Iran is targeting and taking out key US military infrastructure throughout the region.

Smashing the Hub: Iran’s Ballistic Onslaught Obliterates US Infrastructure

That strategy continued through last night:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

 Iran responded to U.S. attack by firing Ballistic Missiles & Drones at:

- Satcom, arms depot & US forces building at HMS Jufair, Bahrain 

- 5th fleet (From where Naval Drones were fired) fuel tanks, Patriot radar, C-RAM, Early warning system, Bahrain 

- “Important” US Bases in Jordan 

Will update if there is more.

Regarding those important US bases in Jordan,

there was some news that showed how effective the Iranian strikes have been. Recall that Iran hit bases in Jordan over past nights, claiming great success—specifically striking at drone hangars. There were multiple direct hits on Jordanian bases by Iran’s ballistic missiles. The linked article goes into all that. The point here is that what we see happening is that critical US assets—these hugely expensive drones are USrael’s eyes—are being pushed out of the region, greatly complicating military operations. Sicily is a lot further from Iran than is Jordan than is the UAE. Geography matters:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

5h

Ha! Callsign changed, the MQ-4C Triton is diverting to NAS Sigonella, Italy, not returning to Prince Hassan Air Base, Jordan.

IRGC attacked unnamed US bases in Jordan overnight, possibly hit the base again?

One thing is sure, the US is not considering this base safe anymore.

First they were redeployed from the UAE for the same reason, now from Jordan ... interesting development.

This follows on the Iranian “surprise attack” on Duqm in Oman, which is the logistics hub for US carriers in the Arabian Sea. Attacks like this could make maintenance of USN assets logistically unsustainable over the longer term.