Great piece (you’re a must-read). Someone needs to whisper in someone’s ear that the Russians are quite skilled at the land warfare game. Have been since Alexander Nevsky; really became masters under Suvorov and Kutuzov. Neither Frederick the Great nor Napoleon could beat them. And we know what happened in the century just past.
My point is that it whatever the “Americans” are doing here is utter madness. If the USA wants complete humiliation, the Russians can deliver it, in spades. Do any of those people even know that?
I can imagine Putin would prefer an end to the war sooner than later. Other than the diehard neocons in DC, who wouldn’t? The on-going loss of life and loss of property are horrific.
But, as has been discussed here frequently, I don’t think Russia will stop fighting, let alone accept a peace deal, unless it is agreed that Rump Ukraine will be definitively, and enforceably, neutral.
I also don’t think Putin will stop short of Odessa and securing the Black Sea. Russia has paid too high a price already to let this security imperative go.
And lastly, I don’t think the U.S. is yet willing to accept these terms, which can only be understood as a devastating loss for American military and political prestige.
So…while I accept that peace sooner than later is in everyone’s, including Putin’s interest, I don’t think the U.S. will accept the minimum terms which I think Putin will require, especially so long as the neocons are ‘in office’, and thus there will be no peace.
Which is a tragedy because as long as the war goes on the risk of escalation and catastrophic escalation is ever-present.
Western Ukraine has always been viewed differently by the Russians. It was largely populated by non Russians, think of importing of ethnic Germans and others in the 1700s. Putin has talked about this: there is a natural divide that the Russians have never really wanted to deal with as you move west. Over the decades, most of the migration out of Ukraine has been those who identified as western, either territorial or ideologically. West of the river Dnieper has a different vibe to it. Just since early ‘22, more than half of the Ukrainian population has left, perhaps well north of half. Those with money have crossed into the US. The most significant museum, including massive amounts of documents, for Western Ukraine (non-Jewish) perhaps anywhere is at St. Basil’s Catholic Seminary in Stamford, CT.
And yes, Putin is moving to make the war a fait accompli, as much for the Brits and Euros as for the Americans. He likely thinks Trump will win, but it does not matter at this point. No one in the world is waiting on the US anymore. Everyone is doing their own thing while the US lags behind.
Russian retaliatory (or preemptive) strikes have to be calibrated very, very carefully so as not to give the Pentagon planners their sought-after provocation. I'm impressed. Sending messages which cannot be construed as a war crime that must be answered with tactical nukes.
Regarding the language map of Ukraine, Data Humanist has a good post on the history of its demographics,
Watched the same and concur.... Simpliticus is good.....and especially Lord Bebo is a good, steady source of information. Once again he (Bebo) provides confirmation info on the situation on the ground., not presented by the MSM. The bit about Medical EVAC flights arriving is telling. Col Wilkerson is another good source. He still has a lot of good connections at State and DoD. He did say Putin is ready and has been been ready to negotiate. He is only waiting to see what we do next.
To. dovetail into that theme......A matter of opinion from a military standpoint only.
If the Russians do not take Mykolaiv Oblast as well as Odessa Oblast it will be a major mistake. The Northern flank of the Black sea area will be open to Ukrainian operations and the road to the Transniester will remain closed. This will remain an open wound to the Russians for years to come. For Russia, It would be best if the Russians take these areas now to secure their flanks and be done with it. Odessa has a lot of ethnic Russians in it anyway.
Cons
a. Maybe there is some type of NATO / Russian understanding that Russia will not go into these areas?
b. This may be a trip wire that finally forces NATO to invade.
c. Either way, The war will be prolonged.
There are many chances in the world, so who knows.
Thanks for the Lord Bebo intel. I missed that one.
as far as what the current uni party "Capital District" crowd in DC does or does not do...... walk around with your fingers crossed every day and realize that every day is a blessing because you do not see that bright flash in the distance.
I have zero confidence in the Capital District to choose the "Hard right vs the Easy wrong"
Agree with all the above. Evac flights typically go to Rzeszów, in Poland, then on to military hospitals. I agree with reservations about what Wilkerson said, if that meant Odessa remaining Ukrainian. I don't believe Putin would accept that.
Also note that modifications were made in 2014 to the original 1990 version to keep them flying a bit longer. So some of them have been in service for 35 years already. That's a long time for a helicopter. I sure wouldn't want to fly on one.
The underlying problem is of course the negative incentives present in all western military procurement programs, namely that profits come before all other considerations. As a result you get increasingly complex expensive systems that are hard to maintain and difficult to replace. Add to this the problem of finding skilled workers capable of maintaining these aging platforms and this is what you get.
I'm sure you're aware of the principle that correlation is not causation? I think it applies here. There have been all sorts of failures of western military equipment we don't hear about, unless it's something spectacular like an F35 crash. I think if you want to remove a player from the game there are less expensive ways to do so than wrecking multi-million dollar aircraft that are hard to replace.
Martyanov talks endlessly about the inadequacy of western military systems and the incompetence of their operators. I believe this is just another example.
I'll be keeping an eye out. What's interesting is it hardly made a splash in the news. Normally a story like that would carry a lot of media space here but not this one which makes me wonder if it was 'placed'.
Great piece (you’re a must-read). Someone needs to whisper in someone’s ear that the Russians are quite skilled at the land warfare game. Have been since Alexander Nevsky; really became masters under Suvorov and Kutuzov. Neither Frederick the Great nor Napoleon could beat them. And we know what happened in the century just past.
My point is that it whatever the “Americans” are doing here is utter madness. If the USA wants complete humiliation, the Russians can deliver it, in spades. Do any of those people even know that?
I can imagine Putin would prefer an end to the war sooner than later. Other than the diehard neocons in DC, who wouldn’t? The on-going loss of life and loss of property are horrific.
But, as has been discussed here frequently, I don’t think Russia will stop fighting, let alone accept a peace deal, unless it is agreed that Rump Ukraine will be definitively, and enforceably, neutral.
I also don’t think Putin will stop short of Odessa and securing the Black Sea. Russia has paid too high a price already to let this security imperative go.
And lastly, I don’t think the U.S. is yet willing to accept these terms, which can only be understood as a devastating loss for American military and political prestige.
So…while I accept that peace sooner than later is in everyone’s, including Putin’s interest, I don’t think the U.S. will accept the minimum terms which I think Putin will require, especially so long as the neocons are ‘in office’, and thus there will be no peace.
Which is a tragedy because as long as the war goes on the risk of escalation and catastrophic escalation is ever-present.
Western Ukraine has always been viewed differently by the Russians. It was largely populated by non Russians, think of importing of ethnic Germans and others in the 1700s. Putin has talked about this: there is a natural divide that the Russians have never really wanted to deal with as you move west. Over the decades, most of the migration out of Ukraine has been those who identified as western, either territorial or ideologically. West of the river Dnieper has a different vibe to it. Just since early ‘22, more than half of the Ukrainian population has left, perhaps well north of half. Those with money have crossed into the US. The most significant museum, including massive amounts of documents, for Western Ukraine (non-Jewish) perhaps anywhere is at St. Basil’s Catholic Seminary in Stamford, CT.
And yes, Putin is moving to make the war a fait accompli, as much for the Brits and Euros as for the Americans. He likely thinks Trump will win, but it does not matter at this point. No one in the world is waiting on the US anymore. Everyone is doing their own thing while the US lags behind.
Which is as it should be!
Russian retaliatory (or preemptive) strikes have to be calibrated very, very carefully so as not to give the Pentagon planners their sought-after provocation. I'm impressed. Sending messages which cannot be construed as a war crime that must be answered with tactical nukes.
Regarding the language map of Ukraine, Data Humanist has a good post on the history of its demographics,
https://open.substack.com/pub/americanexile/p/the-second-great-falsehood-about
Watched the same and concur.... Simpliticus is good.....and especially Lord Bebo is a good, steady source of information. Once again he (Bebo) provides confirmation info on the situation on the ground., not presented by the MSM. The bit about Medical EVAC flights arriving is telling. Col Wilkerson is another good source. He still has a lot of good connections at State and DoD. He did say Putin is ready and has been been ready to negotiate. He is only waiting to see what we do next.
To. dovetail into that theme......A matter of opinion from a military standpoint only.
If the Russians do not take Mykolaiv Oblast as well as Odessa Oblast it will be a major mistake. The Northern flank of the Black sea area will be open to Ukrainian operations and the road to the Transniester will remain closed. This will remain an open wound to the Russians for years to come. For Russia, It would be best if the Russians take these areas now to secure their flanks and be done with it. Odessa has a lot of ethnic Russians in it anyway.
Cons
a. Maybe there is some type of NATO / Russian understanding that Russia will not go into these areas?
b. This may be a trip wire that finally forces NATO to invade.
c. Either way, The war will be prolonged.
There are many chances in the world, so who knows.
Thanks for the Lord Bebo intel. I missed that one.
as far as what the current uni party "Capital District" crowd in DC does or does not do...... walk around with your fingers crossed every day and realize that every day is a blessing because you do not see that bright flash in the distance.
I have zero confidence in the Capital District to choose the "Hard right vs the Easy wrong"
Agree with all the above. Evac flights typically go to Rzeszów, in Poland, then on to military hospitals. I agree with reservations about what Wilkerson said, if that meant Odessa remaining Ukrainian. I don't believe Putin would accept that.
concur Mark, Thanks for taking the time to reply.
Apparently a British Navy helicopter ditched in the Channel today. One dead but the others survived. Curious.
Photos? or stock photos from years gone by?
Pretty current photos:
https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/georgia-school-shooting-september-5-2024
scroll down for the mug shot.
My wife tells me his do is currently very fashionable and that he even did his eyebrows.
I wouldn't read too much into that. Those are old helicopters and the need to replace them has been an issue since at least 2020.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/when-will-the-royal-navys-merlin-helicopters-be-retired/
Also note that modifications were made in 2014 to the original 1990 version to keep them flying a bit longer. So some of them have been in service for 35 years already. That's a long time for a helicopter. I sure wouldn't want to fly on one.
The underlying problem is of course the negative incentives present in all western military procurement programs, namely that profits come before all other considerations. As a result you get increasingly complex expensive systems that are hard to maintain and difficult to replace. Add to this the problem of finding skilled workers capable of maintaining these aging platforms and this is what you get.
Yes - our military are, as we say, skint.
Expect more accidents?
Some background details on those helicopters.
https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/2-bn-for-british-eh101-merlin-multirole-upgrades-01745/
I'm sure you're aware of the principle that correlation is not causation? I think it applies here. There have been all sorts of failures of western military equipment we don't hear about, unless it's something spectacular like an F35 crash. I think if you want to remove a player from the game there are less expensive ways to do so than wrecking multi-million dollar aircraft that are hard to replace.
Martyanov talks endlessly about the inadequacy of western military systems and the incompetence of their operators. I believe this is just another example.
I'll be keeping an eye out. What's interesting is it hardly made a splash in the news. Normally a story like that would carry a lot of media space here but not this one which makes me wonder if it was 'placed'.
Here's a US story that doesn't seem to be getting the attention you'd expect--try to guess why not:
White Kid Shoots Two Teachers And Two Students Of Color.
Why aren't we getting wall to wall End White Supremacy out of this?
Spoiler: I do know the answer.
Known threat by the FBI too.
good intuition, you are right.
It was in Stars and Stripes....under the category....Nothing to see here...move along... :)
You betcha....