War In Karabakh Begins

Azerbaijan has launched a “massive” attack on the remaining Armenian held Republic of Artsakh in the high Caucasus region between the Black and Caspian Seas. It’s a crossroads for Russians, Turks, Iranians, and innumerable smaller ethnic and religious groupings. You can read about Artsakh and its history at the link. Here are several maps:

In this second map you’ll notice that Armenia lies between Azerbaijan proper on the right and a small enclave of Azerbaijan at the lower left. In addition to the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region (Artsakh) Turkey and Azerbaijan are demanding a transport corridor across Armenia that region (Nakhchivan). First, the area of the conflict:

And now the Zangezur Corridor as proposed:

Russia is also in favor of a corridor of some sort, but Iran opposes it, fearing that it would be cut off from non Turkish-Azeri controlled north - south routes.

Armenia says it will not go to war with Azerbaijan, so it looks for now as if Artsakh is on its own and will be crushed. Has there been some sort of deal among the major surrounding powers? How does US/UK influence play into this? Will the US now sanction Azerbaijan? Don’t bet on it. Those are the questions to keep an eye on.

News summaries so far:

CaucasusWarReport

@Caucasuswar

Armenia will not go to war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

-Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

7:37 AM · Sep 19, 2023

It seems clear that Russia will not support Armenia—for now.

Lord Bebo

@MyLordBebo

Medvedev in his TG:

One day, one of my colleagues from a brotherly nation [Armenia] told me: “Well, I’m a stranger to you, you won’t accept me.”

I answered what I had to: “We will judge not by biography, but by actions.”

Then he lost the war, but strangely stayed in place.

Then he decided to blame Russia for his talentless defeat.

Then he gave up part of the territory of his country.

Then he decided to flirt with NATO, and his wife defiantly went to our enemies with cookies.

Guess what fate awaits him...

7:38 AM · Sep 19, 2023

Where Iran stands isn’t clear, but Iran and Azerbaijan have been in talks. Iran has made belligerent statements directed at the Turks - Azeris, but perhaps there’s now an understanding. Does the fact that the Russian defense minister has traveled to Iran mean anything?

DD Geopolitics

@DD_Geopolitics

Shoigu has arrived in Tehran.

7:36 AM · Sep 19, 2023

It’s all very complicated.