War Clouds Over The Levant

News today is that the USS Eisenhower is not being relieved, rotated back Stateside for refitting and rest for the crew—it’s simply being pulled from the Red Sea and sent to the Levant, off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon. It appears the Ike will be “replaced” in the Yemen area by the Italian carrier Cavour, which is about a quarter the displacement of the Ike. This is a clear sign of growing strain on imperial resources.

One assumes that the US political establishment replaced Trump in order to get the war of global conquest underway—seriatim, one war at a time, one conquest at a time, starting with Russia to control its resources as a hammer over China. Instead, the Anglo-Zionist empire finds itself embroiled in multiple conflicts simultaneously, while its military resources are being degraded at a rate that alarms experts. Apparently Anglo-Zionist war planning didn’t have a contingency plan for the targets refusing to go along with the script. Everything the US and NATO sends to Ukraine is being chewed up by the Russians, who are content to continue this process, keeping casualties as low as possible, knowing that they are not only disarming Ukraine but also NATO. The latest major sign of this process was the announcement that Patriot systems scheduled for delivery to NATO countries would instead be sent for destruction in Ukraine. US industry simply can’t keep up with the losses. NATO is being stripped of what defenses were planned. Instead, the nuclear saber is being rattled—Sweden says it will accept US nukes.

Pivoting back to the Med. Is the Ike being redeployed to the Levant to assist Israel’s coming war on Lebanon—which will draw Hezbollah into the full use of its formidable military? The US seems conflicted. Israel has been insisting since—when was that? October?—that they would polish off Hamas and Gaza and quickly pivot to Hezbollah, driving them north of the Litani. All to expand the borders of Greater Israel. The threat has been repeated with great urgency ever since October, but instead Hezbollah continues degrading Israeli air defenses and Israeli somehow never finds itself able to pivot north from Gaza. Gaza, as predicted, has become a quagmire—it would be a small quagmire for the US, but it’s a major quagmire for Israel. Casualties are mounting, the constant mobilization and evacuations are taking a tremendous toll not only on the IOF but also on the economy—which is in a shambles. Half a million Israelis have fled the country, including many military age men looking to avoid service. And the US has been unable to break the Houthi blockade which has had a global effect.

Meanwhile, the US appears to be trying to work a good cop/bad cop routine. On the one hand it is only massive US support that keeps the IOF’s head above water and able to maintain its continuing slaughter of civilians. The most criminal military in the world, according to the UN Human Rights commission. Nothing, except death and destruction, is going according to plan for Israel and the US. As a result, the IOF is at increasingly open odds with the Netanyahu government, knowing that the IOF has been seriously degraded, and notably in terms of morale. The IOF command knows that Israeli threats of a Blitzkrieg—why do they seem to prefer Nazi terminology?—into Lebanon is a bad joke. If such a scheme ever had a prayer, the war on Gaza has almost certainly put paid to it. Yet the US says it will support Israel, come what may, including war in Lebanon:

Israel Intent On Launching An Incursion Into Lebanon, Blinken Warns

On the other hand, reading between the lines, it’s clear that the US is desperate to avoid a major Middle East war—and any Israeli attempt to invade Lebanon would bring about exactly that result, possible expanding to a global hot war, escalating from the current global economic warfare supplemented by regional hot wars.

The US is till seeking to cool tensions and making the argument that broader war is good for no one. CNN additionally included the following surprising statement from the Israeli side (surprising given that Israeli military leaders know full well that [Hezbollah] is far more formidable a foe than Hamas):

Israel has made the case that it can pull off a "blitzkrieg," but the US is warning them that they may not be able to ensure that it remains a limited campaign, the official said.

Israel's strategy in a ground invasion scenario would be to keep the offensive 'limited' inasmuch as possible, primarily with the aim of creating a buffer zone of some 10km, which could allow the return of the tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel who have been within easy reach of Hezbollah's constant drone and rocket barrages.

Washington too has been pressing a ceasefire plan that would ideally see Hezbollah agree to a buffer zone. 

In what world can massive US support for genocide be seen as “seeking to cool tensions?” Not in the Muslim world. Broader war is good for no one? Well, not good for the Anglo-Zionist empire, which is still embroiled in war with Russia and economic conflict with China, but a broader war—or the threat of a broader war—might be good for those who are seeking to change the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. A clear sign that the Axis of Resistance knows that the Anglo-Zionist empire is trying to bluff Hezbollah into surrender is the fact that Hezbollah continues its policy of gradual escalation. It appears that Hezbollah is attempting to lure the Anglo-Zionists into precisely the action that is being used as a threat against Hezbollah.

In light of the seeming inevitability of war in Lebanon—only avoidable by a major restructuring of Palestine power sharing, what’s holding back the startup of the Israeli “Blitzkrieg”? After all, if Israel continues on course in its current form, war will come. Perhaps what’s holding it back is the realization that Hezbollah may well prove to be an uncrackable nut and, worse, is able to render Israel virtually uninhabitable. Like the US, Israel and its IOF has lived a delusion, believing that superior air power could maintain hegemony indefinitely—in spite of the strong evidence to the contrary.

The source of that statement that Israel could be rendered unihabitable is “the CEO of a company that manages and oversees Israel’s electrical systems on behalf of the government”—someone who should know:

Hezbollah can make Israel ‘uninhabitable in 72 hours,’ expert warns

Hezbollah possesses over 100,000 rockets and missiles that can devastate Israel's electricity and other infrastructure should Israel decide to invade Lebanon

Israel’s power grid is vulnerable to a Hezbollah attack that could render it “uninhabitable” 72 hours later, Haaretz reported on 21 June.

According to the CEO of a company that manages and oversees Israel’s electrical systems on behalf of the government, Israel is entirely unprepared for a war with Hezbollah that would likely target the country’s power infrastructure.

“We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my eyes,” said Shaul Goldstein, head of Noga – the Israel Independent System Operator.

Goldstein made the comments while speaking at a conference organized by The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) …

…

Israeli-born Amos Hochstein [he is still an Israeli citizen], adviser to US President Joe Biden, traveled to Israel and Lebanon this week amid the heightened tensions.

In Israel, Hochstein met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid, and former war cabinet member Benny Gantz.

Haaretz writes that Hochstein warned of the possibility that war with Hezbollah could lead to a wide-scale Iranian attack on Israel, of a kind that would be difficult for Israel’s defense systems to repel in concert with possible wide-scale fire by Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Israeli leaders have for months threatened to “copy-paste” the destruction of Gaza onto Lebanon if Hezbollah did not halt its attacks from the north, which forced the evacuation of some 200,000 settlers.

On Wednesday, the Israeli army announced its Northern Command had approved operational plans for war with Lebanon.

Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese MP and spokesman Ibrahim Moussawi stated earlier this week that if Israel wants a full-scale war, the Islamic resistance is ready.

“If they want to come to Lebanon, they are welcome. We are waiting for them. Ahlan wa Sahlan, as they say in Arabic,” he stated.

…

“They can’t manage themselves in Gaza, and they want to come here? In Gaza, they are not fighting. They are just bombarding and sending drones. But if they do come, we are anxiously waiting for them. We have made preparations that they can never imagine,” he added. 

A war for the existence of Israel as a Zionist apartheid state doesn’t make much sense if it results in the elimination of the entity the war was supposed to preserve. You could say that Hezbollah has placed Israel into a MAD posture—mutually assured destruction—and is now increasing the pressure in the conviction that Israel will back off from complete destruction. What the future would then be is speculative—and Israel that resigns itself to the position of a small role player in the Middle East is difficult to envision.

Megatron has provided a thread unroll in which he sketches out what he believes is the overall strategy of the Axis of Resistance. I’m not sure whether he’s entirely correct, in that I can see the Axis accepting a new political reality in Palestine, if that were attainable by negotiation. Iran’s military capabilities have been built up largely as a defensive measure rather than massive ground warfare. On the one hand, given that the Zionist entity’s and the Anglo-Zionist empire’s ambitions appear to be non-negotiable, Megatron’s views are worth considering. On the other hand, bear in mind that any such conflict as the one he sketches out is unlikely to remain local. All bets would be off regarding the spread of war and the degree of escalation.

Those who have been reading me since the beginning of the situation in Israel and Palestine know that I have already written several times that this war will be fought in 3 phases.

In Phase One, it will be Hamas' task to cripple the Israeli military as much as possible. What I didn't expect was that Hamas would last more than 7 months. But for 9 months now, there is not the slightest sign that Hamas is about to be defeated.

The second phase as the resistance plan and the biggest task will be for Hezbollah to crush the already weakened Israeli army by Hamas.

The third phase is a full invasion of Israel by all the paramilitary organizations in the Middle East including directly Iranian.

We are already on the threshold of the beginning of the second phase, and the first phase Israel did not manage to complete even 50%.

Everything is going according to Iran's plan and now the alliance is hoping that Israel will fall for the trap, and invade Lebanon, this will make Iran's job 3x easier. That is why the leader of Hezbollah provokes Israel every day.

This is clear to many Israeli military personnel who are already constantly publicly criticizing this idea, but Netanyahu must continue the military actions in order not to lose his seat and his head after that.

If Netanyahu decides to invade Lebanon, it will be all or nothing for the Israeli state. 

Why was the time chosen to start the resistance despite Israel constantly bombing Gaza before October 7th now?

Because NATO has spent over 80% of its weapons stockpile in Ukraine. Including 100% of their "mercenaries" who, if they were not in Ukraine, would have ended up in Gaza, and there are 60,000 to 100,000 of them.

What no one expected was the brutal massacre of children by Israel. Hamas thought the hostages would protect the civilian population, but Israel began brutally bombing even its own. That is why they [Hamas, Israel, both?] took so many hostages in the first place. 

This was Suleimani's plan from the beginning.

Target Syria, secure it, create a direct bridge from Iran to Lebanon, arm Hezbollah to the teeth and provide logistics for a possible reinforcement.

Everything he did was moving in this direction.

Hezbollah was not created, trained and funded to play role models or have fun.