Russia had every motive in the world to blow the pipeline since it would allow them to deny gas to Europe while pointing the fickle finger of blame at us. That said, I take no position on who did it, I acknowledge that in fact we may have done it, and I wish to add that I was nowhere near the Baltic when this happened and can prove it. All that said, nothing remains secret in Washington for long, so if in fact we did it, I do not expect the perps to be able to long hide their guilt.
The interesting thing here is that if we did it, then the regime is guilty of a grossly irresponsible act that will cost us dearly. If we did not do it, then the regime is still guilty of gross irresponsibility since they made public threats against the pipeline that no competent statesman would ever have made. Thus regardless of attribution, American foreign policy is a clown car. One wired with, as Keanu Reeves said in that movie "Enough Semtex to put a hole in the world"
Inconvenient fact--it has for years been official US position that EU should not depend on Russia for gas. And that we would do what it takes to prevent that. Having the pipelines in place gave Russia leverage to force EU to come an accommodation. Cui Bono? USA.
The Regime is entitled to no presumption of innocence. I do not argue their innocence or defend their policy. They may in fact be as guilty as sin. We do not know this, and at the moment people are accusing whichever government they happen not to like. Personally, I like neither of them. I discount questions of who benefits since I regard neither Washington nor Moscow as rational actors. Washington no more benefits from destroying the pipeline than Germany benefitted from unrestricted submarine warfare in World War I, but the Germans were reckless and irresponsible enough to do it. Washington may have been as well.
I will add one thing. I have just seen (In the last few minutes) a report that the Kearsarge amphibious ready group is in the Baltic and was within 30km of where the pipeline went boom quite recently. I consider this a relevant fact. I do not consider questions of "Who benefits" to be relevant since I assure you that no one does. We are in the hands of crazy people.
I have to disagree: "I do not consider questions of "Who benefits" to be relevant since I assure you that no one does." What's relevant is the perception of benefit. The US has repeatedly stated that it wants Nordstream gone--that's a perception of benefit.
I was excited about Meloni until I learned she was a Zelensky supporter. This is one of my acid tests of someone's political and moral views. I couldn't care less whether you support Russia or Ukraine--indeed I take the view it is unseemly for Americans to take sides in border wars between godless Soviets. But all of the Kyiv stans--excuse me, we won the Cold War, it's spelled Kiev--have made support for Ukraine the sin qua non for membership in all of the internationalist organizations. NATO, UN, IMF, World Bank, etc. You have to be a Zelensky Stan to expect to get cash from the "global community." You have to loudly proclaim that Putin is literally Hitler. Sorry--if you support Zelensky you are the 21st century Hitler apologist, the only question is why?
For the record, I find it unseemly for an American citizen to ever publicly root for any other country but America. Be it we’re talking war or a sportsball match. In case that wasn’t clear.
The Ukrainian supporters, however, have become particularly insufferable, to the point of demanding you ape their talking points and propaganda even on professional forums where you are trying to provide a disinterested analysis of the war. I think it’s reasonable at this point for people’s patience to have run out and to actively root against their side.
Thank god Mark’s blog exists and is one of the few American places one can come to get balanced assessments without Zelensky stans butting in.
I think the guy in the ZeroHedge article does not frame the issue correctly. It is tunnel-visioned and sensationalistic to frame this as the evil Fed vs. the equities market. Too many people likely have this mindset because all they have ever known is close to zero interest rates and the concomitant financialization of the markets and of the economy that drove asset valuations ever higher over the last 15 years. What will ultimately limit the Fed and cause a pause if not a pivot in raising rates is IMO not how hard the markets crash but illiquidity in Treasuries (there is already disorder there) and credit facilities.
That said he is on point in citing the herd (sheep) mentality of the markets. The Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten as long as they still see a need to tame inflation - the sheep need to and will soon capitulate to this idea, thus contributing to a reset of equity valuations, along with inflation, decreased corporate earnings, and increased costs.
The guys in the linked via CTH Gooslby/Santori, Mulvaney interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-JiZmXnPeE&t=3s) frame the problem(s) a lot better. Goolsby and especially Mulvaney both correctly state that the Fed has made mistakes in the past and is now limited in what it can do (namely raise rates and tighten) and cannot bring inflation under control by themselves. They both note the need to address supply side issues such as energy and computer chips, etc. Spot on.
My reaction to the Zerohedge article and its catastrophic implications was now will somebody please tell the US government? Throwing money around, money that doesn't exist, and then expecting the Fed to accommodate? Raising interest rates is painful, and not raising them is worse. It is not simply inflation. It is a question of maintaining a currency and a viable economy.
Interestingly, this entire article points out the damage an Administration and a Congress can inflict in short order. Did those geniuses like Barr and our SC consider this when they allowed no challenges to the 2020 election? Did they further consider that prevailing public opinion is not supportive of anything our government is doing?
Just a couple points to consider. A) The depth of the Baltic averages around 155 feet..I think? Not sure the depth of the pipeline there, but if it is at 150-160 feet, its easily reached by Navy divers. Recreational divers certify to 60 feet, advanced to 130.
B) If the depths are more, it matters not: either way, Navy divers would have a decompresion chamber waiting on the ship (or sub?) for them.
The point being, even at 200-300 feet this sabotage could have been done by divers without a sub...but satellites would also have picked up surface ships, so theres that.
I suppose pure hubris or incompetence could lead to being so brash and exposed. On the other hand, with all the stealth technologies we have, it doesn't really make sense that we would be caught almost red handed.
...then again, look at 2014 and how in-your-face Nuland and Sullivan were fomenting the Maidan coup...and back to hubris we go.
I think the Brits did it and made it look like it was the USA.
They had motive and financial gains to make. They are controlled directly by the Crown Corporation in the City of London and those buggers are never elected or even chosen. They inherit.
America’s incompetent foreign policy bureaucracy is doing everything in its power to blunder the U.S. into a full-scale war with Russia. Destroying the nation’s economy, manufacturing base, energy industry, and rule of law apparently wasn’t enough.
In response to Europe's energy crisis, Putin said on Sept. 17 that if Europe wants to solve the issue, it can ignore US orders and open up the Nord Steam 2 pipeline. "Just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said.
Tom Luongo is suggesting Russia did it. My understanding is that this could only have been accomplished via submarine--not "frogmen". That narrows the field. But Russia could cut off the gas any time it wants--righty tighty, lefty loosey. Why? Having the pipeline in place gives Russia leverage. False flag sabotage? Benefits are really, really speculative, IMO.
Tom Luongo (Powell's a Baller)
NATO has been directly goading Russia for years. This is the latest escalation. And it is definitely a move to keep Germany on side, but by whom US is too easy. This is more likely a false flag by someone else to really start the war
Replying to @martyrmade
Was clear this is US 'burning Europe's boats' - no backsliding now it's getting cold!
But the obviousness of sabotage and the fact this stuff is openly being posted suggests that the US only barely cares about deniability (if at all).
Implies NATO is directly goading Russia.
Tom Luongo (Powell's a Baller)
Has anyone noticed Russia's silence on the whole "blowing up our pipelines" scenario?
Everyone is laying claim, denying, speculating... but Russia hasn't said a thing. Silence is deafening.
This attack profits people who want to "glue" the war conditions by removing undesirable outcomes (even unlikely they might be).
Opening NS1/2 would be a lose condition for the USA as stated many times by their leaders. The static condition was NS1/2 couldn't be opened. However the dynamics could change or were changing (fear of social unrest in Germany). But now this condition is fixed.
On the other hand Russia has been cut one endgame scenario. Nevertheless she could use the consequences of this action for some advantages if it is proven that USA has a role in it.
No way Russia did it - that makes no sense whatsoever as they would be killing their own leverage against Europe vis a vis Ukraine. But I just checked and Luongo has posted this:
"Folks, the Russians have already written off Europe as a customer. They KNOW there is no going back. They are now post-Europe in their thinking.
Who benefits from blowing up gas to Europe? Those accelerating its collapse to cover their insolvency in the face of the Fed. Davos"
The first point may well be true but still it didn't preclude them leveraging NordStream 1+2 against Europe. The second point, absolutely - as I noted in another comment below.
The Treasury Department just had a straight-up terrible 30-year bond auction, following two solid debt auctions. These are the first three debt sales of the AA+ era, remember, and all eyes were on these auctions as a test of how investors would react to the downgrade.
Agree with pretty much everything he says but I basically think they did it on behalf of the WEF, which likely wants to collapse Europe's economy as a step in migrating economic control of it to the IMF and the BIS. Perhaps they would have preferred a more controlled demolition but at this point it will have to do. This in addition to the obvious preclusion of any settlement over Ukraine.
It's always appeared to me that the Fed has to keep raising rates. An economy can't long withstand real rates of negative 8 % (the real rate when Powell started) or even negative 5% (the approximate real rate today). It is a massive destruction of any wealth held in bonds and a massive transfer to debtors.
Russia had every motive in the world to blow the pipeline since it would allow them to deny gas to Europe while pointing the fickle finger of blame at us. That said, I take no position on who did it, I acknowledge that in fact we may have done it, and I wish to add that I was nowhere near the Baltic when this happened and can prove it. All that said, nothing remains secret in Washington for long, so if in fact we did it, I do not expect the perps to be able to long hide their guilt.
The interesting thing here is that if we did it, then the regime is guilty of a grossly irresponsible act that will cost us dearly. If we did not do it, then the regime is still guilty of gross irresponsibility since they made public threats against the pipeline that no competent statesman would ever have made. Thus regardless of attribution, American foreign policy is a clown car. One wired with, as Keanu Reeves said in that movie "Enough Semtex to put a hole in the world"
Inconvenient fact--it has for years been official US position that EU should not depend on Russia for gas. And that we would do what it takes to prevent that. Having the pipelines in place gave Russia leverage to force EU to come an accommodation. Cui Bono? USA.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/who-gains-most-from-nord-stream-sabotage/
The Regime is entitled to no presumption of innocence. I do not argue their innocence or defend their policy. They may in fact be as guilty as sin. We do not know this, and at the moment people are accusing whichever government they happen not to like. Personally, I like neither of them. I discount questions of who benefits since I regard neither Washington nor Moscow as rational actors. Washington no more benefits from destroying the pipeline than Germany benefitted from unrestricted submarine warfare in World War I, but the Germans were reckless and irresponsible enough to do it. Washington may have been as well.
I believe the truth will be known fairly soon.
The accusations are based on articulable evidence and reasoning derived from that evidence--not personal likes or dislikes. Cf. the new post.
I will add one thing. I have just seen (In the last few minutes) a report that the Kearsarge amphibious ready group is in the Baltic and was within 30km of where the pipeline went boom quite recently. I consider this a relevant fact. I do not consider questions of "Who benefits" to be relevant since I assure you that no one does. We are in the hands of crazy people.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1574758898086694912/photo/1
I have to disagree: "I do not consider questions of "Who benefits" to be relevant since I assure you that no one does." What's relevant is the perception of benefit. The US has repeatedly stated that it wants Nordstream gone--that's a perception of benefit.
I was excited about Meloni until I learned she was a Zelensky supporter. This is one of my acid tests of someone's political and moral views. I couldn't care less whether you support Russia or Ukraine--indeed I take the view it is unseemly for Americans to take sides in border wars between godless Soviets. But all of the Kyiv stans--excuse me, we won the Cold War, it's spelled Kiev--have made support for Ukraine the sin qua non for membership in all of the internationalist organizations. NATO, UN, IMF, World Bank, etc. You have to be a Zelensky Stan to expect to get cash from the "global community." You have to loudly proclaim that Putin is literally Hitler. Sorry--if you support Zelensky you are the 21st century Hitler apologist, the only question is why?
For the record, I find it unseemly for an American citizen to ever publicly root for any other country but America. Be it we’re talking war or a sportsball match. In case that wasn’t clear.
The Ukrainian supporters, however, have become particularly insufferable, to the point of demanding you ape their talking points and propaganda even on professional forums where you are trying to provide a disinterested analysis of the war. I think it’s reasonable at this point for people’s patience to have run out and to actively root against their side.
Thank god Mark’s blog exists and is one of the few American places one can come to get balanced assessments without Zelensky stans butting in.
https://twitter.com/CaoYi_MFA/status/1575671362105982976
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-blew-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1-2-says-former-polish-defense-minister
Could the Euros be waking up? But someone undoubtedly forgot to set Ursula’s alarm clock!
I think the guy in the ZeroHedge article does not frame the issue correctly. It is tunnel-visioned and sensationalistic to frame this as the evil Fed vs. the equities market. Too many people likely have this mindset because all they have ever known is close to zero interest rates and the concomitant financialization of the markets and of the economy that drove asset valuations ever higher over the last 15 years. What will ultimately limit the Fed and cause a pause if not a pivot in raising rates is IMO not how hard the markets crash but illiquidity in Treasuries (there is already disorder there) and credit facilities.
That said he is on point in citing the herd (sheep) mentality of the markets. The Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten as long as they still see a need to tame inflation - the sheep need to and will soon capitulate to this idea, thus contributing to a reset of equity valuations, along with inflation, decreased corporate earnings, and increased costs.
The guys in the linked via CTH Gooslby/Santori, Mulvaney interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-JiZmXnPeE&t=3s) frame the problem(s) a lot better. Goolsby and especially Mulvaney both correctly state that the Fed has made mistakes in the past and is now limited in what it can do (namely raise rates and tighten) and cannot bring inflation under control by themselves. They both note the need to address supply side issues such as energy and computer chips, etc. Spot on.
My reaction to the Zerohedge article and its catastrophic implications was now will somebody please tell the US government? Throwing money around, money that doesn't exist, and then expecting the Fed to accommodate? Raising interest rates is painful, and not raising them is worse. It is not simply inflation. It is a question of maintaining a currency and a viable economy.
Interestingly, this entire article points out the damage an Administration and a Congress can inflict in short order. Did those geniuses like Barr and our SC consider this when they allowed no challenges to the 2020 election? Did they further consider that prevailing public opinion is not supportive of anything our government is doing?
I’m beginning to think that perhaps Joe Biden isn’t the only politician who isn’t playing with a full deck.
Just a couple points to consider. A) The depth of the Baltic averages around 155 feet..I think? Not sure the depth of the pipeline there, but if it is at 150-160 feet, its easily reached by Navy divers. Recreational divers certify to 60 feet, advanced to 130.
B) If the depths are more, it matters not: either way, Navy divers would have a decompresion chamber waiting on the ship (or sub?) for them.
The point being, even at 200-300 feet this sabotage could have been done by divers without a sub...but satellites would also have picked up surface ships, so theres that.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1574758898086694912
I suppose pure hubris or incompetence could lead to being so brash and exposed. On the other hand, with all the stealth technologies we have, it doesn't really make sense that we would be caught almost red handed.
...then again, look at 2014 and how in-your-face Nuland and Sullivan were fomenting the Maidan coup...and back to hubris we go.
Wow
I think the Brits did it and made it look like it was the USA.
They had motive and financial gains to make. They are controlled directly by the Crown Corporation in the City of London and those buggers are never elected or even chosen. They inherit.
https://francesleader.substack.com/p/2-russian-pipeline-leaks-into-baltic
Sean Davis
@seanmdav
America’s incompetent foreign policy bureaucracy is doing everything in its power to blunder the U.S. into a full-scale war with Russia. Destroying the nation’s economy, manufacturing base, energy industry, and rule of law apparently wasn’t enough.
Aaron Maté
@aaronjmate
In response to Europe's energy crisis, Putin said on Sept. 17 that if Europe wants to solve the issue, it can ignore US orders and open up the Nord Steam 2 pipeline. "Just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said.
Instead, someone bombed it.
Tom Luongo is suggesting Russia did it. My understanding is that this could only have been accomplished via submarine--not "frogmen". That narrows the field. But Russia could cut off the gas any time it wants--righty tighty, lefty loosey. Why? Having the pipeline in place gives Russia leverage. False flag sabotage? Benefits are really, really speculative, IMO.
Tom Luongo (Powell's a Baller)
NATO has been directly goading Russia for years. This is the latest escalation. And it is definitely a move to keep Germany on side, but by whom US is too easy. This is more likely a false flag by someone else to really start the war
Replying to @martyrmade
Was clear this is US 'burning Europe's boats' - no backsliding now it's getting cold!
But the obviousness of sabotage and the fact this stuff is openly being posted suggests that the US only barely cares about deniability (if at all).
Implies NATO is directly goading Russia.
Tom Luongo (Powell's a Baller)
Has anyone noticed Russia's silence on the whole "blowing up our pipelines" scenario?
Everyone is laying claim, denying, speculating... but Russia hasn't said a thing. Silence is deafening.
This attack profits people who want to "glue" the war conditions by removing undesirable outcomes (even unlikely they might be).
Opening NS1/2 would be a lose condition for the USA as stated many times by their leaders. The static condition was NS1/2 couldn't be opened. However the dynamics could change or were changing (fear of social unrest in Germany). But now this condition is fixed.
On the other hand Russia has been cut one endgame scenario. Nevertheless she could use the consequences of this action for some advantages if it is proven that USA has a role in it.
No way Russia did it - that makes no sense whatsoever as they would be killing their own leverage against Europe vis a vis Ukraine. But I just checked and Luongo has posted this:
"Folks, the Russians have already written off Europe as a customer. They KNOW there is no going back. They are now post-Europe in their thinking.
Who benefits from blowing up gas to Europe? Those accelerating its collapse to cover their insolvency in the face of the Fed. Davos"
The first point may well be true but still it didn't preclude them leveraging NordStream 1+2 against Europe. The second point, absolutely - as I noted in another comment below.
Treasury Bond-Sale Fail
By Mark Gongloff
Oops.
Well, two out of three ain't bad, I guess.
The Treasury Department just had a straight-up terrible 30-year bond auction, following two solid debt auctions. These are the first three debt sales of the AA+ era, remember, and all eyes were on these auctions as a test of how investors would react to the downgrade.
Yep - the "disorder" in the bond markets is already here.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/27/cdc-drops-universal-masking-recommendation-for-healthcare-workers/
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/partial-results-show-96-favor-joining-russia-ukraine-annexation-polls-close-state
https://thesaker.is/2022-09-27-the-americans-declared-war-on-europe-gonzalo-lira/
Agree with pretty much everything he says but I basically think they did it on behalf of the WEF, which likely wants to collapse Europe's economy as a step in migrating economic control of it to the IMF and the BIS. Perhaps they would have preferred a more controlled demolition but at this point it will have to do. This in addition to the obvious preclusion of any settlement over Ukraine.
Thank you, USA. pic.twitter.com/nALlYQ1Crb
— Radek Sikorski MEP (@radeksikorski) September 27, 2022
It's always appeared to me that the Fed has to keep raising rates. An economy can't long withstand real rates of negative 8 % (the real rate when Powell started) or even negative 5% (the approximate real rate today). It is a massive destruction of any wealth held in bonds and a massive transfer to debtors.