41 Comments
User's avatar
Robert Fausti's avatar

Thanks. appreciate it!

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johnycomelately's avatar

Israel is provoking Iran to get a response to sway public opinion. Hopefully cooler heads prevail in Iran.

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It's Just Me's avatar

That is my hope. Larry Johnson makes that point over at Sonar21.

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Manul's avatar

Again - tit for tat, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, you kill my cat I kill your dog. What does that accomplish? I'm hearing Israel is retaliating and deterrence. Retaliating for what? Does anyone remember how this started? And what are they deterring? And who is egging all of this on?

Can anyone see that no one wins this? Iran is a huge country of 90M people. Israel has 9M, squished into a tiny, barren land surrounded on all sides by their enemies. Withdraw US support, and it will end because it has to at some point, and Israel is gone.

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Oct 26
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Mark Wauck's avatar

Yes, I've been writing about the trade corridors for at least the last two years.

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Manul's avatar

From Will Schryver, whom I find mostly reliable:

https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1850032136067416485

Here's what I have observed at this point in relation to the Israeli strikes against Iran:

- The Israelis launched a lot of missiles -- all from maximum stand-off distance.

- Iran put up a LOT of air defense missiles.

- There are no firm reports nor video evidence (so far) of big missile strikes on any significant Iranian targets.

- The Iranians say they intercepted most of the attacking missiles, but admit some got through.

- All the usual purveyors of #EmpirePropaganda are claiming Israel crushed Iranian air defenses and devastated their intended targets.

My impression is that, although they probably hit *something* meaningful with this strike, by and large it was a demonstration of just how limited Israeli long-range strike capability really is -- and how formidable Iranian air defenses have become.

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It's Just Me's avatar

Israel should claim the 'win' and stand down. I doubt that's what Netanyahu will do.

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ML's avatar

Posted by Moon, a devastating commentary in list form on Israel’s “successes” - to quote Tony Blinken - over the past year, by a commenter named Arch Bungle:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/what-has-israel-achieved-in-the-last-year-by-arch-bungle.html#more

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It's Just Me's avatar

Very sobering. America needs to look inward and begin the process of renewal and rebuilding.

Its time for a new breed of leadership to replace the failures of the last 60 or more years.

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ML's avatar

A “failure” maybe, but could it be that Israel actually restrained itself, limiting destruction, and, as Ray suggests, forcing the issue onto US elections? I would then hazard to say the Dem cronies, and Kam in particular, are between a rock and a hard place.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

It seems like Israel have conducted a limited attack on Iran tonight and is placing all its efforts on the media to make it look like it was a massive attack (see Al-Arabiya, Sky News ....)

Iran can ignore the attack, or legitimately destroy military targets in Israel in response.

10:20 PM · Oct 25, 2024

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Mark Wauck's avatar

What do I know?

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771

Israel humiliated? Footage coming out showing mass interceptions and not a single ground strike. Look at the ground, no explosions at all. Meanwhile Jerusalem Post claims over 100 aircraft involved including F-35s in 'massive' strike.

Something isn't clicking. Either we haven't seen all the footage yet, or Iranian AD just humiliated Israel like never before.

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It's Just Me's avatar

Maybe Netanyahu's hands are shaking again. He's potentially bought himself a heap of trouble for himself and his country.

I pray that cooler heads prevail.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Israeli sources report the "retaliation" against Iran has ended.

12 casualties confirmed after an IRGC battalion reportedly died of laughter.

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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

Zionists plan, Allah laughs.

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MikeinFL's avatar

reposted by Simplicius:

https://x.com/upholdreality/status/1850008803716051102

"12 casualties confirmed after an IRGC battalion reportedly died of laughter."

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Alec's avatar

It was a giant nothingburger. They hit nothing. Didn't even activate Iran's air defenses, only their cannons. Total cuck out and embarrassment for the ziocucks.

Reportedly Iran will have to respond due to the moderate anxiety Israel's attack caused to their livestock on the outskirts of town.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

So, now that we know this has come a week and a half before the election, the big question becomes: How will this affect the election? Kama Sutra has to take ownership, right? Trump has been talking peace with Iran--what now? And most importantly, will Americans start taking our wars seriously?

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Manul's avatar

I keep thinking Americans will wake up and demand that their money not be used for all these stupid wars. I figured it out in my late 30s when the US started bombing Serbia for no good reason. So many Americans are ignorant of the damage the US does worldwide. Too many still believe we are the good guys.

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User's avatar
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Oct 26
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Mark Wauck's avatar

The delay between election and inauguration certainly is an interesting aspect.

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Robert Fausti's avatar

I will be the first to admit.

I was wrong on the timing part.

And unlike the idiots in DC......who never do..... , I apologize.

So, moving forward..... Not next week: but now.... the attack has started. ......

Therefore the historical play begins.

and how will it go?

Israel now attacks Iran.

Iran then hits Israel?

And then Does Israel hit again ...even harder?

Then is Israel or Iran suffer enough and stop?

. OR

Do they keep on beating each other until one or the other is nearly decimated??...

Then what do the "supporting powers" do? Russia China and the US? Do they all get involved??

The boulder now starts its decent down hill. Does it cause more wreckage along the way and creates an avalanche? Or does it just roll down the hill and loose steam?

We shall see.

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It's Just Me's avatar

You don't need to apologize. It may be that in the past Israel acted out of strength and now they're acting out of fear or desperation.

It seems the worm has turned.

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Ray-SoCa's avatar

The timing may be more about US politics with the goal of getting the two candidates into a bidding war of Israel support. This opportunity ends in 10 days.

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Amanda R's avatar

Very astute observation.

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Joe's avatar

Maybe I am missing something

but I imagine Iran has access to 'live' satellite showing what is taking off and from where

And given same, I can't understand why Iran would not immediately fire 50 100 500 missiles at each

airbase used such that there is no where to land when they return

Seems pretty simple to me - I'm most certain they could do the math

Send whatever it takes # missiles to each base flown out of

and having delivered, even if Israel were on target, the missiles are already in the air

less left on the ground to destroy

and seems pretty ' non escalatory '

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Joe's avatar

While Israeli planes are in the air

or even returning

What if Iran put 2 ballistic missiles on each airstrip used

Israel may have difficulty differentiating incoming verse their own activity

I don't know, seems reasonable

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JRob's avatar

It's not quite that easy to destroy an airbase. It would take hundreds of missiles, if not thousands, targeted at each airbase to destroy the airbases. See this video of Ted Postol on Daniel Davis Deep Dive as he presents the equations and statistics of ballistic missile trajectories and accuracy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Smd2Sf54hbQ

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Joe's avatar

I imagine just need two ballistic missiles on the tarmac

to stop returning planes from safely landing on return trip

air defence would be limited for friendly fire could take out

returning planes

pretty simple.

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JRob's avatar

Again, it's not that easy. As Ted Postol explains, a 0.1 degree variance in the arc angle of the ballistic missile at engine burnout will result in a circle of probable hit as large as the entire airbase. Statistically, you have to shoot a large number of ballistic missiles to guarantee full coverage of the target area just to guarantee that you hit the tarmac. Even the best, most advanced, ballistic missiles face this angle variance problem with conventional warheads. You can't just target the tarmac with a couple of ballistic missiles and assume that you will hit it. This targeting problem is the reason that Iran is estimated to have 10s of thousands of ballistic missiles. You need a lot of them if you're targeting military installations.

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Joe's avatar

They said in the last strike Iran put one in the swimming pool

of the housing unit

whether that was an error or not is not known

whether or it took 10 to hit the pool doesn't make a difference

they could fire 10

they also claimed direct hit on a THADD

I understood one missile direct hit

(US then sent Israel 2 more THADD)

regardless I imagine 10 incoming missiles

means the planes have to be waived off

possibly low on gas after refueling to drop the load in lebanon

probably make them think twice on the next long range mission

(requiring refueling)

and they probably cannot risk targeting with incoming aircraft if they

are Iran missiles are incoming at the same time as the returning planes

so theoretically the defenses would be inoperable

I know your going to say the THADD targets the exact missile

the I've seen the patriot go haywire

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JRob's avatar

I'll grant you that if you want to make life difficult for a returning strike package you can launch a missile attack on the airfield (assuming everything that it takes to get them there before the planes return.) The only point I'm making is that it is not as simple as you seem to think. It's not 2 missiles and it's not 10 missiles. Take a look at the 43 min mark in the Ted Postol interview. A missile barrage of 180 missiles only has a 30% chance of 1 missile hitting a circle as wide as a football field. The Iranians would have to launch hundreds of missiles at a single airfield to have any meaningful effect on the returning planes. If it were only a handful of missiles the attack would be over in less than a minute, probably none of them would hit the runway, and you could just land the planes after the missile barrage.

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

Viewing flightradar24 shows zero aircraft in the air from Cyprus east to and through Iran. Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and even Iran zero planes in the air. The air travel corridor to the Gulf states shifted significantly south using Egypt and Saudi Arabian airspace.

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Ray-SoCa's avatar

What a mess.

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