I’m sure Mark will consider Simplicius’ latest sitrep in a later post, but this portion puts the Empire’s efforts to provoke a reaction from the Bear along with nudging the hapless Euros to get involved as well, into the larger context :
“Now that Russia and China have rejected the Swiss [“piss”] conference, the West appears desperate to organize another one in Saudi Arabia with Russia and China’s actual participation. They know that if they can’t goad Putin into overreacting to the provocation plan [the “figleaf”], then Russia will continue methodically breaking through until Ukraine collapses. In that case, they must find a way to freeze the conflict by convincing Russia to negotiate. But what possible incentive would Russia have to do that when—as Ukraine’s own defense minister claimed—Russia stands to inject a massive 300k army to decapitate the AFU and get the entire prize in one fell swoop?” Still, with our wildly provactive behaviour and leadership vacuum, things could head south very fast…
This sounds similar to what Mearsheimer and Danny Davis were saying late yesterday--that the West is giving Putin no incentive to change course and negotiate. M was saying, of course Putin is willing to negotiate, but only on his terms. Give him an incentive. But the Neocons won't and can't do that. They and Zhou claimed this war was a great moral crusade so they can't back out. Thus the efforts to get Putin to do something to validate their initial rationale.
BTW, all readers, my wife and I will be taking our grandson to the Botanic Garden this morning, so I'll be behind on the substack.
Just read that ML and found it rather surprising that Simp gave so little space to the two attacks on Russia's early warning system. To him it doesn't seem that serious. Let's hope so. Moscow seems pretty laid back about it anyway.
Right Steg, keeping fingers and toes crossed…although Putin has delivered a “stark” (Mercouris) warning to Euroland of the dire consequences awaiting any (mostly small but densely populated) country which would pursue further such a mad policy…
Is it me, or has anyone else noticed the following. That radar site area of coverage was primarily the Israel, Syrian, Iraq and Western Iran Area of Operations. What I am getting at is "airspace". The Air Space containing the routes needed to be used by Israel for an attack on Iran were specifically monitored by that site. Tonight the Israelis hit targets "deep inside Syrian territory". May be this is all interconnected. The preparation for an attack on Iran? Or maybe just a precautionary strike to ensure the Russians could not monitor "any" Israeli Air operation.
I wonder if shutting Russia’s eyes means there’s more issues with the f16s than is being revealed, it might allow clandestine flights from NATO bases. It might also allow drone flights from third countries.
Not good, folks, not good at all. Poking the bear, and at some point the bear has not choice but to bite back, and the crazies with the poker know it. Maybe Russia will come up with a work- around. The rats must really feel cornered.
It's a bit of a head-scratcher for the Russians. You don't want to do what the neocons want you to do - lash out wildly - but you DO want to hit back somehow. Maybe they can help do something about those vulnerable US bases spread around the globe. However, I doubt that even that will work. The neocons will never retreat until this all becomes extremely PERSONAL for them.
I'm starting to think we are at a definitive tipping point. I subscribe to Bryen & view him as a trusted source on technicalities such as this (Martyanov too); his article was alarming. Alex Christoforou's video today went over all of the European countries giving "permission" - including Macron actually waving a map around of places to attack in Russia. This is spiraling out of control with frightening rapidity. We're running a RQ-4B Global Hawk in the Black Sea right now - this is almost a daily occurrence - but it stays within certain bounds. Not today, though, its actually flying inside the Russian ATC space which includes Krasnodar. The "collective West" leaders are such cowards that they cannot actually declare war and take on Russia head to head, so they continue to allow Ukraine and Ukrainians to take the punches. My fear is that when they run out of Ukrainians, their cowardice will simply induce them to use nukes when they fail to subjugate/balkanize Russia. I do wonder if the location of these systems that have been attacked and their range are also related to everything that is going on in Palestine and the Yemeni blockade, etc.
Former US President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump has told campaign donors that he “would have bombed” Moscow and Beijing if they’d attacked Ukraine and Taiwan respectively on his watch, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
According to numerous donors, advisers and other people close to him, the former president has ramped up his fundraising campaign rhetoric ahead of his likely rematch with incumbent Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
Trump, who regularly addresses foreign policy topics at such events, reportedly claimed that he would have bombed the Russian capital in response to its Ukraine campaign, and prescribed the same response to a hypothetical Chinese move to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan. These remarks “surprised” his donors, according to the Washington Post.
This from the guy who, after threatening Little Rocket Man with nuclear annihilation, ended up paying said Little Man an unprecedented (and largely meaningless) personal visit across the DMZ. I don’t think Trump actually “thinks” much about anything. It’s all ad libbed P.R. stunts — i.e., he does and says things for applause.
I don't think Trump is an isolationist. But I do think he is "America First" in the sense of "what are we getting out of it?" I can't imagine that he would conceive of a scenario where we would get something positive out of bombing Moscow over Ukraine or bombing Beijing over Taiwan. What do we care? Why should we care? He is a nationalist, yes, but in support of that he is also a pragmatist. My take is that the lib press is projecting again.... with malevolent intent as regards Trump's base.
Either he has monstrously poor judgement or he is a deep state neocon just like Bolton. Everyone he hired was a pure deepstate hack. Bill Barr, Chritopher Ray, James Comey. Not one person he hired wasn’t a worse neocon than Biden’s cabinet. Did he not know who the were? Trump isn’t that stupid he is that much a neocon though. Read his recent plans to crush student protests. If you think he isn’t Nikki Hailey in a suit you are dreaming.
I think you need to have a narrower definition of Neocon. To me, that means a focus on foreign policy. Bolton and Pompeo certainly fit in that category, along with others. OTOH, the legal people don't necessarily. Trump didn't hire Comey--but he did fire him. Wray and Barr came highly recommended by outfits like the Federalist Society that had also backed some of Trump's good judicial nominations. Hindsight is always 20/20. Wray has been a complete disaster. Barr turned out to be a backstabber extraordinaire, but I'm unaware of any influence he may have had on FP.
A neocon is someone who promotes endless wars to cash giant checks from Ratheon etc. at the expense of America’s security and prosperity. It is not at all complicated.
It’s a shame when you can’t trust the major media because of past lies, such as Russiagate, Covid, nordstream, unexpected Russia invasion of Ukraine, vaccine injuries, Trump in general, etc.
I was visiting a school in my area and they had a presentation about "Spotting misinformation" I wasn't sure whether to laugh or vomit. It ended with a führerbefehl to the students to use only "trusted" sources. The sources were (fasten seat belts now) were the Guardian and the BBC.
This is definitely FJB’s war, and he owns the Gaza war too. He doesn’t have to declare himself the war-time president; he has been since he “took” office.
"Edging up" probably won't. But actually having the war would enable "him" to declare martial law and cancel elections. A la Zelensky. Truly, I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Cass, I was thinking exactly the same thing and then I wondered what outrage they have planned for us next that would make this course of action seem logical? With the abomination that is trying to pass itself off as “justice at work” in New York nothing, and I do mean nothing, seems beyond the realm of possibility.
As Mark pointed out, we are in completely uncharted waters at this point and I just have a sneaking suspicion that something ominous is headed our way.
My thoughts exactly! People often talk about citizens rallying behind the president in times of war as if that is a given, but I think the president in that situation needs to be a recognized leader, worthy of supporting. In our case we have a senile, decrepit, creepy old pedophile who exhibits zero leadership qualities. No one will follow this clown (and those really pulling his strings) into battle.
OT, but the NY clown jury found DJT guilty on all counts! WHAT A FRICKING TRAVESTY AND JOKE!!! Real justice is officially dead in this country.
I’m sure Mark will consider Simplicius’ latest sitrep in a later post, but this portion puts the Empire’s efforts to provoke a reaction from the Bear along with nudging the hapless Euros to get involved as well, into the larger context :
“Now that Russia and China have rejected the Swiss [“piss”] conference, the West appears desperate to organize another one in Saudi Arabia with Russia and China’s actual participation. They know that if they can’t goad Putin into overreacting to the provocation plan [the “figleaf”], then Russia will continue methodically breaking through until Ukraine collapses. In that case, they must find a way to freeze the conflict by convincing Russia to negotiate. But what possible incentive would Russia have to do that when—as Ukraine’s own defense minister claimed—Russia stands to inject a massive 300k army to decapitate the AFU and get the entire prize in one fell swoop?” Still, with our wildly provactive behaviour and leadership vacuum, things could head south very fast…
This sounds similar to what Mearsheimer and Danny Davis were saying late yesterday--that the West is giving Putin no incentive to change course and negotiate. M was saying, of course Putin is willing to negotiate, but only on his terms. Give him an incentive. But the Neocons won't and can't do that. They and Zhou claimed this war was a great moral crusade so they can't back out. Thus the efforts to get Putin to do something to validate their initial rationale.
BTW, all readers, my wife and I will be taking our grandson to the Botanic Garden this morning, so I'll be behind on the substack.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52924-nato-ramps-up-figleaf
Just read that ML and found it rather surprising that Simp gave so little space to the two attacks on Russia's early warning system. To him it doesn't seem that serious. Let's hope so. Moscow seems pretty laid back about it anyway.
Right Steg, keeping fingers and toes crossed…although Putin has delivered a “stark” (Mercouris) warning to Euroland of the dire consequences awaiting any (mostly small but densely populated) country which would pursue further such a mad policy…
Is it me, or has anyone else noticed the following. That radar site area of coverage was primarily the Israel, Syrian, Iraq and Western Iran Area of Operations. What I am getting at is "airspace". The Air Space containing the routes needed to be used by Israel for an attack on Iran were specifically monitored by that site. Tonight the Israelis hit targets "deep inside Syrian territory". May be this is all interconnected. The preparation for an attack on Iran? Or maybe just a precautionary strike to ensure the Russians could not monitor "any" Israeli Air operation.
Could be, but I'm sure that the Russians have a fail-safe kind of back up.
As an aside, Mark, have you ever been approached by the media for work? The level of output and quality is simply amazing.
Nah, he's too honest.
Depends on what you mean by 'media'. I was approached back in the Russia Hoax days by some well known sites. Thanks.
I wonder if shutting Russia’s eyes means there’s more issues with the f16s than is being revealed, it might allow clandestine flights from NATO bases. It might also allow drone flights from third countries.
NATO is certainly taking a gambit.
I wonder how the United Nations will react to this escalation?
So glad Speaker Johnson supported enablement of this with the recent funding. (Sarcasm).
He makes Rishi Sunak seem like Patton.
This is no longer poking the bear.
This is dressing up in a Lady Gaga meat suit and punching the bear in the face.
The consequences will be escalatory.
and we wonder why Putin wants to push NATO borders back further. Chaos.
Not good, folks, not good at all. Poking the bear, and at some point the bear has not choice but to bite back, and the crazies with the poker know it. Maybe Russia will come up with a work- around. The rats must really feel cornered.
It's a bit of a head-scratcher for the Russians. You don't want to do what the neocons want you to do - lash out wildly - but you DO want to hit back somehow. Maybe they can help do something about those vulnerable US bases spread around the globe. However, I doubt that even that will work. The neocons will never retreat until this all becomes extremely PERSONAL for them.
It’s seen as a way to increase pressure on Russia, since the current stuff is not working.
After all, what could go wrong?
I'm starting to think we are at a definitive tipping point. I subscribe to Bryen & view him as a trusted source on technicalities such as this (Martyanov too); his article was alarming. Alex Christoforou's video today went over all of the European countries giving "permission" - including Macron actually waving a map around of places to attack in Russia. This is spiraling out of control with frightening rapidity. We're running a RQ-4B Global Hawk in the Black Sea right now - this is almost a daily occurrence - but it stays within certain bounds. Not today, though, its actually flying inside the Russian ATC space which includes Krasnodar. The "collective West" leaders are such cowards that they cannot actually declare war and take on Russia head to head, so they continue to allow Ukraine and Ukrainians to take the punches. My fear is that when they run out of Ukrainians, their cowardice will simply induce them to use nukes when they fail to subjugate/balkanize Russia. I do wonder if the location of these systems that have been attacked and their range are also related to everything that is going on in Palestine and the Yemeni blockade, etc.
https://www.rt.com/news/598373-trump-bomb-moscow-beijing/
Former US President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump has told campaign donors that he “would have bombed” Moscow and Beijing if they’d attacked Ukraine and Taiwan respectively on his watch, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
According to numerous donors, advisers and other people close to him, the former president has ramped up his fundraising campaign rhetoric ahead of his likely rematch with incumbent Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
Trump, who regularly addresses foreign policy topics at such events, reportedly claimed that he would have bombed the Russian capital in response to its Ukraine campaign, and prescribed the same response to a hypothetical Chinese move to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan. These remarks “surprised” his donors, according to the Washington Post.
What next for DJT? "I woulda written on those Israeli shells in BIGGER letters than Nikki Haley!"?
This from the guy who, after threatening Little Rocket Man with nuclear annihilation, ended up paying said Little Man an unprecedented (and largely meaningless) personal visit across the DMZ. I don’t think Trump actually “thinks” much about anything. It’s all ad libbed P.R. stunts — i.e., he does and says things for applause.
I don't think Trump is an isolationist. But I do think he is "America First" in the sense of "what are we getting out of it?" I can't imagine that he would conceive of a scenario where we would get something positive out of bombing Moscow over Ukraine or bombing Beijing over Taiwan. What do we care? Why should we care? He is a nationalist, yes, but in support of that he is also a pragmatist. My take is that the lib press is projecting again.... with malevolent intent as regards Trump's base.
Reinforces my opinion we're not going to see the same President Trump as we did before. He's Deep Stated now.
Always was. He hired John Bolton.
Either he has monstrously poor judgement or he is a deep state neocon just like Bolton. Everyone he hired was a pure deepstate hack. Bill Barr, Chritopher Ray, James Comey. Not one person he hired wasn’t a worse neocon than Biden’s cabinet. Did he not know who the were? Trump isn’t that stupid he is that much a neocon though. Read his recent plans to crush student protests. If you think he isn’t Nikki Hailey in a suit you are dreaming.
I think you need to have a narrower definition of Neocon. To me, that means a focus on foreign policy. Bolton and Pompeo certainly fit in that category, along with others. OTOH, the legal people don't necessarily. Trump didn't hire Comey--but he did fire him. Wray and Barr came highly recommended by outfits like the Federalist Society that had also backed some of Trump's good judicial nominations. Hindsight is always 20/20. Wray has been a complete disaster. Barr turned out to be a backstabber extraordinaire, but I'm unaware of any influence he may have had on FP.
A neocon is someone who promotes endless wars to cash giant checks from Ratheon etc. at the expense of America’s security and prosperity. It is not at all complicated.
It's broader than "endless wars".
Did Barr promote endless wars?
But he got rid of him, too.
US nuclear weapons personnel are "good people".
"..according to the Washington Post." 🙄 "according to" numerous unnamed people." 🙄
It’s a shame when you can’t trust the major media because of past lies, such as Russiagate, Covid, nordstream, unexpected Russia invasion of Ukraine, vaccine injuries, Trump in general, etc.
I was visiting a school in my area and they had a presentation about "Spotting misinformation" I wasn't sure whether to laugh or vomit. It ended with a führerbefehl to the students to use only "trusted" sources. The sources were (fasten seat belts now) were the Guardian and the BBC.
Can’t trust the major governments either because of the same lies you cite amongst many more.
If it walks like a duck...Trump is not going to get the West out of this mire.
This is definitely FJB’s war, and he owns the Gaza war too. He doesn’t have to declare himself the war-time president; he has been since he “took” office.
Could be an excuse to pull a Zelensky and cancel elections and stay in power "for the good of the nation". Nothing is off the table.
I think that it comes within the range of possibilities, but it's unlikely. I don't think it would work either. That leaves bird flu! :)
"Edging up" probably won't. But actually having the war would enable "him" to declare martial law and cancel elections. A la Zelensky. Truly, I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Doubtful. Lack of critical thinking ability for these folks. This is just dumb escalation... primarily driven by the EU/UK IMO.
Probably.
Cass, I was thinking exactly the same thing and then I wondered what outrage they have planned for us next that would make this course of action seem logical? With the abomination that is trying to pass itself off as “justice at work” in New York nothing, and I do mean nothing, seems beyond the realm of possibility.
As Mark pointed out, we are in completely uncharted waters at this point and I just have a sneaking suspicion that something ominous is headed our way.
It's not all gloom. The appalling WHO pandemic treaty is on the rocks.
As good excuse as any to declare martial law and cancel the selection. At this point anything is possible with the lunatics we have in charge.
Maybe, if they delusional enough to think he can be portrayed as a "war time President".
That will be a hard sell for even the least aware of the citizenry
My thoughts exactly! People often talk about citizens rallying behind the president in times of war as if that is a given, but I think the president in that situation needs to be a recognized leader, worthy of supporting. In our case we have a senile, decrepit, creepy old pedophile who exhibits zero leadership qualities. No one will follow this clown (and those really pulling his strings) into battle.