China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan—if we’re to believe both official PRC as well as official US positions, that means China has been conducting military exercises around a part of China. So, nothing to get excited about. Here are two perspectives, including interesting and informative maps:
Mark, I'm not so sure China actually wants to invade Taiwan. The optics would be terrible for them.
At least with Ukraine, Russia could say, well in 2008 you announced, in 2014 you did, in December '21 you declined, etc, and so now we act.
With Taiwan it's different I don't think China will want to act brazenly with Taiwan and risk the diplomatic blowback in SE Asia.
I'm not saying Taiwan won't become part of China, maybe even in the near future. But it would take a very public and ugly event to justify a military invasion.
Right now only one country in the world wants "war, war, war!" and it's not in Asia, Europe or Africa.
I meant to emphasize that I don't think China would move preemptively on Taiwan. I think this is a Western fantasy /self justification for the aggressive posture to bait China.
The Taiwan President in his inauguration per my wife used the word Taiwan 80 times and also said Taiwan is independent. Democracy was mentioned a lot. I can see why China is livid.
I disagree with some parts of the speech. Net zero by 2030, after a nuke plant was closed, sure...
And the biggest issue after China, the birth rate, was ignored.
And no mention of their horrible military situation and how their entire reserve system needs to be fixed, and their military reconfigured to something like Switzerland during the cold war, but that would upset a lot of people.
Overall a Nice ceremony that highlighted a lot of the different ethnic groups in Taiwan, I saw part of it tonight.
Taiwan will become part of the mainland again, in most ways it already is, and there will be no war about it. War is a US/West fantasy, driven by our believing in Globalism, which is dead, and our holding onto this: Star Trek. Brits/US have been outward, think Sea, looking places, thus going out and forcing others to go along with them. China is an inward, think plains, looking place. Very different development: China never embraced PRINT for example, but has embraced DIGITAL, while the US is still kicking the can on DIGITAL, that will lead to very different futures. Note in the interview with Philip Wong, he is not exactly worked up about China-Taiwan relations. They are both Chinese. They want harmony.
These are major military exercises by China around Taiwan, with more "exclusion zones" that are larger in scale than the exercises triggered by Pelosi's visit and closer to the island.
They are basically demonstrating that they can completely blockade the islands, with the zones placed in front of Taiwan's biggest ports (like Kaohsiung to the South, where a lot of Taiwan's navy is, or Hualien to the East), as well as protect the mainland at the same time. It's not a sign of imminent war, simply a reaction to Lai's presidential inauguration speech where he hinted at significant changes to the status quo towards independence, so much so that even the Financial Times ran an article saying that "China has a point" when they were warning about Lai's intention to change the status quo.
Wow, that's exceedingly rare. The FT admits that the ROC's new leader Lai Ching-te is attempting the change the status quo across the Taiwan strait and that "China has a point" in this regard.https://t.co/cfuMnnLNBs
It will be a real cherry 🍒 on top for this Administration's catastrophies - China could and should do Taiwan before the Senile Manchurian Candidate keels over or is voted out.
Those TSMC plants in Arizona that were supposed to be a hedge against a PRC overrun of Taiwan are looking increasingly precarious as the Taiwanese side assesses which strategic partner will best butter its bread. Taiwan-side delays and requests for ever-increasing USG concessions have pushed those plants' full operability well into the 2030s. If I were in Taiwan's shoes, I'd surely be paying close attention to the prevailing winds.
Taiwan as an outpost of the American Empire reminds me of Singapore and the Brits in World War Two. Singapore occupied a very important and strategic position, and poured a lot of gold into beefing up its defences. However, when push came to shove, we couldn't defend it. The GAE is run by mentalists.
Taiwan's President just got inaugurated on May 20th. This is just China being China, and giving a reminder to Taiwan's new President about the balance of Power. China has been doing lots of showing of forces around Taiwan for a while. It does not get covered in the US media, but the Taiwan Media covers it.
There are only certain times of year that the weather makes sense for an invasion, and the weather windows per some are around April and October. So it's unlikely in June.
Mark, I'm not so sure China actually wants to invade Taiwan. The optics would be terrible for them.
At least with Ukraine, Russia could say, well in 2008 you announced, in 2014 you did, in December '21 you declined, etc, and so now we act.
With Taiwan it's different I don't think China will want to act brazenly with Taiwan and risk the diplomatic blowback in SE Asia.
I'm not saying Taiwan won't become part of China, maybe even in the near future. But it would take a very public and ugly event to justify a military invasion.
Right now only one country in the world wants "war, war, war!" and it's not in Asia, Europe or Africa.
"Mark, I'm not so sure China actually wants to invade Taiwan."
I thought that's what I just said.
Sorry, must have missed it.
I meant to emphasize that I don't think China would move preemptively on Taiwan. I think this is a Western fantasy /self justification for the aggressive posture to bait China.
The Taiwan President in his inauguration per my wife used the word Taiwan 80 times and also said Taiwan is independent. Democracy was mentioned a lot. I can see why China is livid.
I disagree with some parts of the speech. Net zero by 2030, after a nuke plant was closed, sure...
And the biggest issue after China, the birth rate, was ignored.
And no mention of their horrible military situation and how their entire reserve system needs to be fixed, and their military reconfigured to something like Switzerland during the cold war, but that would upset a lot of people.
Overall a Nice ceremony that highlighted a lot of the different ethnic groups in Taiwan, I saw part of it tonight.
Here is the English translation:
https://english.president.gov.tw/NEWS/6726
Those US educated Chinese students better not be smarter and more effective at delivering high-quality semi-conductors than the rest of the world.
Relative to any intentions to remove the Chinese blockade if it eventually comes to fruition... the Chinese translation for Kinzhal is "Jin zha er".
Taiwan will become part of the mainland again, in most ways it already is, and there will be no war about it. War is a US/West fantasy, driven by our believing in Globalism, which is dead, and our holding onto this: Star Trek. Brits/US have been outward, think Sea, looking places, thus going out and forcing others to go along with them. China is an inward, think plains, looking place. Very different development: China never embraced PRINT for example, but has embraced DIGITAL, while the US is still kicking the can on DIGITAL, that will lead to very different futures. Note in the interview with Philip Wong, he is not exactly worked up about China-Taiwan relations. They are both Chinese. They want harmony.
Taking a leap from Putin’s special operation, China may simply take without little effort Taiwan’s Island chains.
Kinmen is 2km off the China mainland.
Of course the US foresaw this and changed decades long standing doctrine and stationed US forces there. Seems like China may call the bluff.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/current-pla-drills-around-taiwan-are-bigger-scope-exercises-triggered-pelosi
These are major military exercises by China around Taiwan, with more "exclusion zones" that are larger in scale than the exercises triggered by Pelosi's visit and closer to the island.
They are basically demonstrating that they can completely blockade the islands, with the zones placed in front of Taiwan's biggest ports (like Kaohsiung to the South, where a lot of Taiwan's navy is, or Hualien to the East), as well as protect the mainland at the same time. It's not a sign of imminent war, simply a reaction to Lai's presidential inauguration speech where he hinted at significant changes to the status quo towards independence, so much so that even the Financial Times ran an article saying that "China has a point" when they were warning about Lai's intention to change the status quo.
Wow, that's exceedingly rare. The FT admits that the ROC's new leader Lai Ching-te is attempting the change the status quo across the Taiwan strait and that "China has a point" in this regard.https://t.co/cfuMnnLNBs
Here is what they write:
"China is right to say that Lai is…
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 22, 2024
This is China telling him "don't get any ideas".
It will be a real cherry 🍒 on top for this Administration's catastrophies - China could and should do Taiwan before the Senile Manchurian Candidate keels over or is voted out.
Those TSMC plants in Arizona that were supposed to be a hedge against a PRC overrun of Taiwan are looking increasingly precarious as the Taiwanese side assesses which strategic partner will best butter its bread. Taiwan-side delays and requests for ever-increasing USG concessions have pushed those plants' full operability well into the 2030s. If I were in Taiwan's shoes, I'd surely be paying close attention to the prevailing winds.
Taiwan as an outpost of the American Empire reminds me of Singapore and the Brits in World War Two. Singapore occupied a very important and strategic position, and poured a lot of gold into beefing up its defences. However, when push came to shove, we couldn't defend it. The GAE is run by mentalists.
Taiwan's President just got inaugurated on May 20th. This is just China being China, and giving a reminder to Taiwan's new President about the balance of Power. China has been doing lots of showing of forces around Taiwan for a while. It does not get covered in the US media, but the Taiwan Media covers it.
There are only certain times of year that the weather makes sense for an invasion, and the weather windows per some are around April and October. So it's unlikely in June.