Unclear Who Blew The Kakhovka Dam Near ZNPP, But ...
The big news today, of course, is the destruction of the very large Kakhovka Dam, which is located on the major Dnieper river near the Zaporozhiye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The waters of the dam are critical for cooling functions at the ZNPP, but also for flood control the rest of the way downstream to the Black Sea. There are major population areas downstream that are being evacuated.
Thanks for reading Meaning In History! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
In the past I’ve seen discussion of the likelihood that one side or the other might blow the dam. For the Ukrainians, the idea would be to precipitate a nuclear event at the ZNPP and blame the Russians. For the Russians the idea would be to prevent a cross river Ukrainian offensive. Those factors—and other possible factors—remain in play as analysts attempt to figure this out. There have, in the past, been some unsuccessful Ukrainian attacks on the dam and/or ZNPP, but none this year that I can recall. For now the Ukrainians and Russians are each blaming each other—while the usual suspects in the Anglosphere trumpet a Russian “war crime”.
Simplicius has his usual very thorough account, but is unable to decide. However, it is worth pointing out that a notable anti-Russian analyst—Michael Kofman—long ago concluded that the balance of motives would point toward Ukraine if the dam were destroyed (h/t Simplicius):
Simplicius also points to a possible method for the destruction that I, too, recall seeing discussed last year. The method under discussion—the use of floating naval mines—was being assigned to Ukraine, and Ukraine controls the river upstream from the dam:
Notice that you don't hear any tell-tale characteristic whistling sound of artillery or mortar coming in, nor do you see anything drop. My suspicion is that these could be naval sea mines traveling down river and exploding when they hit the shore. Last year, this was the chief method by which Ukraine had planned to blow the Kakhovka dam. It was written about widely and they already had forward men stationed with cars carrying naval mines that they planned to drop into the Dnieper river upstream so that the mines would hit the dam and destroy it. This was the main reason Russian troops withdrew from Kherson after this threat and I even reported on it elsewhere last year, particularly about how Russia could defend against this with mine catching trawl/nets, etc.
I could be wrong but judging by those new videos it seems a possibility that Ukraine finally enacted the plan and sent mines down river to blow the dam and some of them are still exploding. We’ll have to wait for more footage to be sure, but it’s a possibility to me.
One assumes that Russia has been planning for this eventuality. So, overall, the balance appears to tilt toward Ukraine, but not conclusively as of now. Will Schryver is also cautious in assigning proximate responsibility.
On the other hand, major blame for a further humanitarian catastrophe in this war has to be assigned to the instigators of this entire reckless and criminal war on Russia—Neocons/Globalists. Tom Luongo gets that part absolutely right. The usual bots—especially UK outlets and mouthpieces like Michael Cleverly—had their talking points ready, trumpeting the allegation of Russian war crimes. One immediately wonders whether this might be another too clever Neocon scheme to somehow force Russia to accept a “frozen conflict”. Not gonna happen:
Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch)
Why would Assad gas civilians when he was winning?
Why would Russia blow up a dam that provides power and water to the people they are 'liberating?'
6:18 AM · Jun 6, 2023
Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch)
Because sometimes on twitter one doesn't need the /sarc tag.
Replying to @TFL1728
Are u seriously saying Russia didn’t blow up the Nord Stream pipeline? Of course RU blew up this Dam! Why would NATO bomb it?
Everyone in the UK media is saying it was RU and they don’t lie about these things! The BBC are calling it a crime on the ecosystem too, so its genocide!
7:42 AM · Jun 6, 2023
Luongo makes a strong circumstantial case that this was NATO involved:
I’ll say this. If this wasn’t Russia, there could be hell to pay at some point.