Ukrainians, Russians, Americans

Yesterday I quoted a small portion of the Danny Davis interview with Jim Jatras for a specific purpose. I’ll do the same today.

One line of discussion that Jatras brought up repeatedly was his puzzlement at Putin’s failure to end the war quickly. This is a regular theme in internet discussions. Knowledgeable people like Doug Macgregor long for big arrow offensives to get this thing over. My position has long been that no country suffers the cumulative casualties outside ordinarily expected and predictable mortality such as Russia suffered from 1914 to the present without longterm demographic effects. Putin’s policy has been to rebuild Russia’s demographic foundations. That goal is not furthered by accepting the cynical bait of those who seek to “bleed” Russia. Putin himself presided over the successfully concluded ten year Second Chechen War, so he knows something about warfare and about Anglo-Zionist intentions. My belief is that he knows Russia must be in this existential war for the long term, and must therefore avoid casualties to the greatest extent possible.

There is also a second reason, which in the West is not taken seriously enough. Putin has repeatedly expressed a desire to spare Russia’s “Ukrainian brothers” unnecessary suffering. With that in mind I’ll provide Jatras’ own anecdotal evidence for how complicated the human situation in Ukraine is, which helps explain why Putin is reluctant to wage all out war and continues with a Special Military Operation:

The Bucharest 2008 declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would be in NATO was a red line for the Russians. For some reason the expansion into the Baltic states was not. Maybe it was because [Russia was] weaker then--they couldn't really respond to that. Maybe they just don't see the potential for a threat to Russian security there. And maybe it's partly because, not only is Ukraine a bigger and more powerful country than the Baltic states but also, frankly, from [the Russian] point of view, [the Ukrainians are] essentially Russians. I mean we hear a lot of the time about, oh, Russians and Ukrainians, Ukrainians and Russians and, you know, something like this is an ethnic conflict. When I was at the State Department I had a Russian language teacher who was actually an ethnic Ukrainian who was an extremely strong Ukrainian nationalist. Oh, everything was Ukrainian, Ukrainian. ‘The Russians are evil. They're not even genetically related to the Ukrainians.’ He was maniacal about that. And one time I asked his brother, I said "Hey, do you agree with Yuriy about the Russians?" And he looked at me and said "Eh, I'm Russian." And this is in the same family! You know, it's kind of like, you know, Stonewall Jackson's sister was an ardent Unionist. I mean, what is sometimes perceived as a national conflict in some circumstances is really more of a political difference of opinion. And I think that's largely true in Ukraine, too. So I think the Russians felt a special concern about, you know, tens of millions of Ukrainians whom they actually regard as, well, sort-of-Russians--if not exactly. Whereas the Baltic states, I don't think they have much interest in. Although I do sort of wonder why a city like Narva, right on the border of Estonia and Russia, is still in Estonia when it's 95% Russian.

In other words, it’s not totally dissimilar to our Civil War. It will end, and Putin the statesman wants to leave the door open to living together again.

Moving on to the US attack on the Russian airbases, the Russian side has made its first official public statement. As so often has been the case, this was delivered by Dmitry Medvedev—IMO, to avoid raising the importance of this event in the minds of the Russian people. Even if this was a symbolic act in its effects, it was important. But Putin apparently wishes to prevent alarm at this stage. So, Medvedev:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN:

 The first comment from an official from Moscow after the attacks on the nuclear bombers, Medvedev:

"To everyone who is worried and waiting for retribution.

It's right to worry, that's what normal people do. Retribution is inevitable.

But keep in mind, our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance.

Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be.

The Istanbul talks are not for striking a compromise peace on someone else's delusional terms but for ensuring our swift victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime.

That's what the Russian Memorandum published yesterday is about.

For those who somehow doubt that this was, for all intents and purposes, a US attack:

War Designer @WarDesigner0

Secretary of the National Security Committee of the Kiev regime in Ukraine, Roman Kostenko:

"The partners must have known about the SBU's operation 'Spider's Web,' because only they can provide us with 100% reliable intelligence proving that the planes are really there now

8:38 AM · Jun 3, 2025

So far, nothing from Trump. However, Mike Benz offers an insightful observation:

Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber

Ukraine carried out this “Russian Pearl Harbor” attack literally the day after Trump 1 CIA Director & Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Kiev, as well as Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, who that day pledged to override Trump policy on Ukraine.

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Michael Tracey @mtracey

So we're supposed to believe that no one in the sprawling US intelligence apparatus, which plays a granular, intricate role in the Ukrainian war effort, ever received any "notification" of this massive and unprecedented drone attack on Russian nuclear-capable warplanes?

OK, today there was another symbolic attack—this time on the Kerch Bridge. Again. As with the attacks on the airbases, there are all sorts of AI generated videos floating around, purporting to show damage that didn’t actually occur.

ayden @squatsons

Hey they did damage to a pylon nice, the obsession with targets that don’t help Ukraines militarily fascinate me. They’re so fun for their key demographic though.

Also:

ayden @squatsons

Weird how Trumps team keeps going into negotiations with nothing but nonstarters.

Not a single negotiation has settled anything. Hell, not a single negotiation has got past the first two hours without both sides deadlocked. I’d say the nations on the other end of the tables are not falling for the “Minsk” formula, the lie for time option.

And as time drags on we see this tactic trotted out—they’ve finally found the way to really get under Trump’s thin skin:

Chuck Schumer @SenSchumer

16h

0:35

If TACO Trump is already folding on Iran, the American people need to know about it. No side deals.

Anyway, here’s my view. It appears to me that Trump has—by the usual suspects— been talked into the crazy idea that these symbolic strikes will put pressure on Putin by raising the perception in the Russian public that he is an ineffective wartime leader. This will lead to either Putin’s ouster or to Putin caving to a ceasefire deal that will allow time for the Anglo-Zionists to rebuild the Ukrainian military. Of course, neither will happen. What is most troubling is the appearance that Trump is losing control.

But Alexander Mercouris hinted at this factor yesterday when he spoke of British involvement:

We've had lots of operations like this over the course of this conflict. They create enormous shock when they happen and then the shock dissipates and the Russians grind on, and I think that we will probably find the same here.

Which is to say, these operations are media events in terms of effect.

So that's one thing I will say, but the other thing I've got to say is this. You talked about intelligence operations. My own guess is that, once again, the people who are probably most heavily involved in this, or at least provide some of the inspiration here, are not the Americans but the British. The British have always been addicted to this kind of thing. They did it an awful lot during the Second World War--I mean, you've seen all the films, The Guns of Navaronne and The Cockleshell Heroes and that sort of thing. And if you read the British media they continue to be filled with that sort of thing--James Bond type stuff. It didn't make any difference during the Second World War and it's not really going to make much difference now, but I suspect that they have once again been very influential in Washington in getting the Americans to support these sort of operations by Ukraine in Russia.

I actually believe Alexander is on to something here. From my experience I believe there remains a considerable amount of naive faith among American intel types in the derring-do approach so favored by “the Brits.”

And of course it's the [intel controlled] British media at the moment who are being most busy, as far as I can see, fanning the story that this has been a major achievement and victory by Ukraine--which in my opinion it hasn't. ... In war you always have to ask yourself this question: Is it a tactical win that brings you closer to achieving your underlying objective? ... The British have never really grasped this and I don't think the Ukrainians have either. The only benefit I could see for Ukraine in this is the British media hypes it up. Perhaps it brings more of the collective West to believe that if they just give more money and more weapons then Ukraine can achieve so much more. 'Look what they did the other day by hitting the airfield, so if we just continue to support them then they're going to be able to win this!' I think it could build some more hope for some collective West leaders, maybe even for the United States. I mean, Lindsey Graham has just been to Kiev. He said, 'It's not true that Ukraine is losing the war--Ukraine's actually doing fine, look at the map nothing has changed!' Not true, by the way, but that's what he said--and of course it's quite likely that the Ukrainians did brief him about this Operation Spider Web. ... He's going to go back to Washington and

he’ll immediately go golfing with Trump and will

tell Trump "Look. Mr president! You see? The Ukrainians--you can't count them out! We should continue to back them!"

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

Trump is either lying or he has just NO control about the clowns in his administration.

...

Same shit as last time.

He surrounded himself by amateurs and idiots - again.

Which makes him the real idiot here - again.

Again, however, I believe that the selling point to Trump will be not the long term by the supposed short term benefits, as outlined above: pressure on Putin to do a bad deal lest the Russian people oust him. Pie in the sky stuff that Trump seems prone to.

As for the British angle …

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

That was the drone attack on a car in Sumy I was reporting about in the morning.

Sumy is now in FPV drone range - we can expect more attacks like that - nice live in Sumy is over for Ukrainian forces. Kharkov is next.

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King Chelsea Ug @ug_chelsea

4h

A group of high-ranking officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces  and their British  colleague were eliminated by a Russian drone attack on two cars in the Center of Sumy. The news was confirmed by Ukrainian channels.

8:29 AM · Jun 3, 2025

Nothing seems to get under Putin’s skin. I’ll bet The Donald wishes he could be like that.