I am not convinced the moves on Kharkiv and Kyiv were feints. I suspect the Russians were attempting a lightning capture of the Ukrainian capital. It just failed is all, the Russians were smart enough to quickly adjust their strategy and pursue a more methodical and grinding one- one that appears to have been highly successful.
I strongly agree about Kiev not being a feint. It was an attempted coup de main that went south. You can lose the first battle, get shellacked even, and still win the war. First Bull Run is an outstanding case in point. For that matter, the Russian army spent the second half of 1941 mostly getting curb stomped. But in the end, they rolled all the way to Berlin. I've noticed that neither the Putin fanboys nor the Zelensky fanboys online ever want to hear a discouraging word. One of the enduring lessons from the narrative wars about Ukraine is that denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
That said, I thank Mark for posting this, because I had seen a couple of references to it, and this was the first opportunity I've had to get Marinus' take on this.
Russia has long experience in both land warfare and mass casualties. Losses we would consider "staggering" are less so for a nation used to such things.
I disagree to this extent--those days are in the past, and Putin and the rest of Russia knows that. The losses of WW2 and the ravages of Communism were "unsustainable". Russia continues to have demographic problems. That's a major part of the reason that Russia has not launched a full out war--which would require the mobilization that Putin declines to order. That's the meaning of Special Military Operation--only the voluntary forces are involved in combat, and most of those have been from the Donbas republics, with support from the RF forces. The express goal is to INFLICT "staggering losses" while avoiding them. Thus the deliberate and methodical pace.
My comment relies somewhat on David Hackett Fischer's book - Albion's Seed. Cultural traits remain fairly constant over time. Lots of people have traditions that carry through the ages based on former experience. If the Russians are suffering these rates of casualties, and if I were a betting man I would put money on "they're not" I would think their history would tend to make them more resilient to these things.
It was a general comment regarding Russian history. Yes, I do include both world wars, the starvation of the kulaks, etc. The scale of loss over those decades makes a cultural impression over a long period. Approximately 2 million in WW1, 20-25 million in WW2, 5 million kulaks, etc, etc. That level of death changes a culture or at least that is what I surmise. Kind of like the British "stiff upper lip". Russians endure. They're not the only people for sure but...
A friend of mine spent the first 16 years of his life in Russia. Grew up eating from wooden spoons, etc. His grandparents and all of the old people he knew fought the Germans. He taught me a lot about Russia and the mindset of the people he grew up around (200 miles NW of Moscow).
I am not convinced the moves on Kharkiv and Kyiv were feints. I suspect the Russians were attempting a lightning capture of the Ukrainian capital. It just failed is all, the Russians were smart enough to quickly adjust their strategy and pursue a more methodical and grinding one- one that appears to have been highly successful.
I've noticed it i always easy to "see the plan" after the war is over. Hindsight being 20/20 comes to mind.
I strongly agree about Kiev not being a feint. It was an attempted coup de main that went south. You can lose the first battle, get shellacked even, and still win the war. First Bull Run is an outstanding case in point. For that matter, the Russian army spent the second half of 1941 mostly getting curb stomped. But in the end, they rolled all the way to Berlin. I've noticed that neither the Putin fanboys nor the Zelensky fanboys online ever want to hear a discouraging word. One of the enduring lessons from the narrative wars about Ukraine is that denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
That said, I thank Mark for posting this, because I had seen a couple of references to it, and this was the first opportunity I've had to get Marinus' take on this.
You, as a citizen of a semi totalitarian state, ...
Russia has long experience in both land warfare and mass casualties. Losses we would consider "staggering" are less so for a nation used to such things.
I disagree to this extent--those days are in the past, and Putin and the rest of Russia knows that. The losses of WW2 and the ravages of Communism were "unsustainable". Russia continues to have demographic problems. That's a major part of the reason that Russia has not launched a full out war--which would require the mobilization that Putin declines to order. That's the meaning of Special Military Operation--only the voluntary forces are involved in combat, and most of those have been from the Donbas republics, with support from the RF forces. The express goal is to INFLICT "staggering losses" while avoiding them. Thus the deliberate and methodical pace.
My comment relies somewhat on David Hackett Fischer's book - Albion's Seed. Cultural traits remain fairly constant over time. Lots of people have traditions that carry through the ages based on former experience. If the Russians are suffering these rates of casualties, and if I were a betting man I would put money on "they're not" I would think their history would tend to make them more resilient to these things.
It was a general comment regarding Russian history. Yes, I do include both world wars, the starvation of the kulaks, etc. The scale of loss over those decades makes a cultural impression over a long period. Approximately 2 million in WW1, 20-25 million in WW2, 5 million kulaks, etc, etc. That level of death changes a culture or at least that is what I surmise. Kind of like the British "stiff upper lip". Russians endure. They're not the only people for sure but...
A friend of mine spent the first 16 years of his life in Russia. Grew up eating from wooden spoons, etc. His grandparents and all of the old people he knew fought the Germans. He taught me a lot about Russia and the mindset of the people he grew up around (200 miles NW of Moscow).